Author Topic: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)  (Read 1980 times)

Offline one-eyed

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The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals

Sam Landsberger
Herald-Sun
30 Aug 2018


Richmond's trademark pressure game has plunged dramatically in the most alarming of several vulnerabilities entering September.

Damien Hardwick said opposition styles had contributed to the recent low-pressure games as he attempts to guide the Tigers to back-to-back flags for the first time since Tom Hafey's 1973-74 team.

Since Round 17, Richmond is ranked 14th for pressure - above only Carlton, St Kilda, Gold Coast and North Melbourne and below Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle.

Last year, they were ranked No.2 for pressure on the cusp of finals.

"Is it a concern? Yes and no," Hardwick said.

"Our pressure numbers have been down but we've been winning the ball back anyway.

"We've just got to continue to challenge our players to get better at that area."

The Herald-Sun can reveal the Tigers form over the past seven weeks does not stack up with their pre-finals form last year.

The Tigers are down a goal from forward-half turnovers this year and rank last for clearances.

While Richmond's percentage sits at a healthy 132 from the past seven weeks, that is also well down from last season's 152.

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson attributed his qualifying final opponent's red flags to a possible dip in motivation.

"Last year, Adelaide finished on top and Richmond was always on the chase for (top four), so their seasons have been quite different," Clarkson said.

"(Hardwick) stated it's actually hard to get the boys up and going when we've already achieved what we wanted to out of the home-and-away series - and that's to qualify on top.

"I dare say for the last six or eight weeks they've felt like they were certain to mark top four.

"Needless to say, we hope they stay in a little bit of a lull over the next couple of weeks."

Only two of the past 10 minor premiers have gone on to win the Grand Final and there are shades of Collingwood 2011 about the Tigers.

The Magpies won the 2010 premiership and finished on top of the ladder in 2011 before trailing off and losing the Grand Final.

Hardwick appeared frustrated in the MCG rooms following Saturday's third narrow win in four weeks.

"You sort of hope the players understand the importance," Hardwick said.

"But the reality is it was a dead rubber and we probably played a bit like that. If we play like that (against Hawthorn) we'll get beaten, no doubt."

The Tigers' biggest issue in the first 16 weeks of 2017 was converting inside 50s to scores.

They fixed that up in the final two months, ranking sixth, but has dropped back to 12th this year.

While few tipped the Tigers to win last year's premiership 12 months ago, they entered September as the hidden force and we're flying.

This year, this question is whether the Tigers can flick the switch next Thursday night, although Hardwick's territory game is still strong.

Since Round 17, the Tigers rank No.1 for time in forward half, inside 50m differential and turnovers created in their forward half.

Richmond has long prioritised other areas over clearances.

While the Tigers ranked sixth for clearances in 2017, the Tigers were still No.1 for points differential from clearances last year.

This year, they are ranked 18th for clearances and 11th for points differential.

Clarkson said he would instruct his forwards to bring the ball to ground to stop intercept kings Alex Rance, Nick Vlastuin, David Astbury and Dylan Grimes picking off their entries.


A Tiger Tale of two seasons


                       R17-23, 2018  R17-23, 2017
Time in fwd half diff        1st        3rd
In50 diff                         1st        3rd
T/Os created in fwd half   1st        2nd
Pts from fwd half T/Os     7th        1st
Goals per In50              10th        4th
Clearance diff                18th        6th
Pts diff from clearances  11th        1st
Uncont poss'n diff          14th        5th
Pressure applied            14th        5th
Percentage                   132%       152% 

http://heraldsun.com/sport/afl

Offline georgies31

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2018, 09:57:26 AM »
Reading this we might as well not rock up to the finals all doom and gloom.

Offline Lozza

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2018, 10:25:52 AM »
Clear difference this year is that we have better ability to control our output. Last year we were pretty much in top gear leading up to finals as we were fighting for a position in the top 4. This season we have dropped back to around 2nd gear because we can.

The players and coaching staff would have absolute confidence that we can switch into top gear. Its a confidence in the systems in place which are proven which come with clear KPIs that players need to meet in order to attain top gear. These KPIs would be clear in the mind of every player before they run out on the G next Thursday night.

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2018, 12:07:48 PM »
The first 3 stats show our method is better and fine tuned this year, really playing games on our terms. Most of the others are a direct correlation to pressure being off due to resting players and knowing we have top 4 and then top 2 sewn up several weeks out. Interestingly, our pressure against Geelong was through the roof and was the highest pressure rating of the year if Im not mistaken against what we deemed a serious contender. We then put the cue in the rack

Offline Hard Roar Tiger

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2018, 02:20:35 PM »
The first 3 stats show our method is better and fine tuned this year, really playing games on our terms. Most of the others are a direct correlation to pressure being off due to resting players and knowing we have top 4 and then top 2 sewn up several weeks out. Interestingly, our pressure against Geelong was through the roof and was the highest pressure rating of the year if Im not mistaken against what we deemed a serious contender. We then put the cue in the rack

Good post
“I find it nearly impossible to make those judgments, but he is certainly up there with the really important ones, he is certainly up there with the Francis Bourkes and the Royce Harts and the Kevin Bartlett and the Kevin Sheedys, there is no doubt about that,” Balme said.

Offline tdy

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2018, 11:28:44 PM »
Flirting with form is a dangerous thing and dammed if we don't need Butler back and in form.

Offline Owl

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2018, 08:20:01 AM »
The stats on the number of media articles and punters that are willing us to fail are huuuuge
Lots of people name their swords......

Offline mightytiges

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Re: The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals (Herald-Sun)
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2018, 02:19:44 PM »
The stats on the number of media articles and punters that are willing us to fail are huuuuge
Yep and there's more of them today.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-02/tigers-a-flag-lock-recent-history-says-maybe-not

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