Should we start Tom Lynch in SuperCoach?Al Paton,
Herald Sun
17 Feb 2019A player labelled the best in the competition arrives at one of the best teams in the AFL and starts the season underpriced. So we all have to pick him, right?
Tom Lynch was the biggest name of last year’s free agency period but hasn’t been at the forefront of SuperCoach discussions, despite his undoubted potential. Are most SuperCoach players ignoring one of the best buys of 2019? We examine the case for and against picking Lynch below.
THE CASE FOR STARTING WITH LYNCHHE CAN play. In 2017 Dermott Brereton — who knows a thing or two about key forwards — declared Lynch was the best player in the AFL. “Lynch is extraordinary,” he said. “He took the most contested marks last year in a team which was in the bottom four and they kicked it into the forward line like puff bags, they were hopeless.
“He works the hardest out of every key forward, he has the best hands. He is a bit robotic in his kicking nature but he runs hard, works hard, he’s aggressive and just marks anything above head height in his area.”
We may have forgotten how good Lynch is. In 2016 he kicked 66 goals, took 62 contested marks, and won 178 contested possessions — in a team that won six games.
His output since that outstanding season has been hampered by injuries and a Suns team that got even worse, but at Richmond he’ll play in more wins for a team that kicks more goals and sends the ball inside 50 a lot more — with the likes of Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin doing the delivery. Lynch must be licking his lips. Remember goals, contested marks and goal assists are some of the most-rewarded stats in the SuperCoach scoring system.
RULE changes should help him. In match simulation so far the 6-6-6 starting positions have opened the game up, creating more room for forwards to run into without spare defenders getting in the way or jumping over the top to spoil. The advantage will be even bigger if teams can win a quick centre clearance and get the ball in before defences have time to set up any kind of zone.
“It was actually a bit hard to defend because there was so much space,” Hawks defender James Sicily told the Herald Sun after match practice last week. “We’re going to have to figure out ways where we can still execute our team defence because we are so spread out.”
On top of that, the AFL has also thrown the hands in the back rule in the bin.
Lynch is 199cm tall, has a big engine and great hands. Good luck to any defenders trying to stop him.
Tom Lynch is slowly ramping up his training load after knee surgery last year.
HE’S UNDERPRICED. Lynch has a price tag of $425,600. To put that in perspective, he’s almost $100,000 cheaper than Jack Gunston and $20,000 cheaper than Matt de Boer (no offence, Matt).
He only needs to match his 2018 average of 78 points a game to maintain that price, but if history is any guide he’ll easily surpass that.
In that excellent 2016 season he averaged 93 and he has two other years of 85 or better. So that should be a baseline before taking into account any of the factors above that should further boost his output — and value.
HE COULD make a flying start. Last time Lynch faced his Round 1 opponent Carlton, in Round 2 last year, he had 21 disposals, kicked eight goals and scored 180 SuperCoach points. The year before he scored 161 against the Blues in a seven-goal performance. That would be a handy way to kick off your season.
THE CASE AGAINST LYNCHHOW’S his knee? The No.1 question mark on Lynch is his fitness. He managed a PCL issue last season before pulling the pin in June and having surgery. In November he went under the knife again to remove scarring, a procedure Richmond said would accelerate his recovery.
He’s still not in full training, but has been increasing his load on the track in recent weeks. The Tigers say they won’t rush an eight-year player but are confident he’ll line up against Carlton in Round 1.
If he doesn’t, you can’t start with him in SuperCoach. If he does, how will he fare after such a limited pre-season?
KEY forwards are almost all inconsistent. In 2017, the last time Lynch played close to a full season, he scored seven SuperCoach tons (including that 161) but also put up a 37, 39, 43 and 58. Playing for a likely top-four team should lift his scoring floor but beware you’re getting on a rollercoaster and will have to take the bad with the good.
EVEN if Lynch returns to his best, is that good enough to finish the year as a top-six forward? A 93 average last year would have made him the 16th-best scorer among forwards, just behind Toby McLean and ahead of Jack Riewoldt. We need him to spike to career-best numbers north of 100 points a game to avoid using a trade at some point in the season.
Picking Lynch with the intention of trading him out after a price spike is a valid strategy (in fact, a similar move with Travis Cloke was helped John Bruyn claim the $50,000 prize in 2013). But while Carlton is a tantalising Round 1 opponent, the bad news a big score against the Blues will cycle out of Lynch’s price movements early so it won’t have much impact on his value. And the Tigers’ fixture gets a lot tougher after that, playing Collingwood, GWS (away), Port Adelaide (away), Sydney and Melbourne in the first six rounds.
Given the rollercoaster nature of forwards it’s unlikely Lynch will be a runaway train you can’t jump on at some stage. Tom Hawkins finished last season with an average of 102 but in Round 10 you could have recruited him for $20,000 less than his starting price.
Have a look at Lynch’s early-season form and if you like what you see, trade him when the price is right, or factor him into your bye round upgrades — after their break the Tigers face St Kilda and Lynch’s old team Gold Coast, where he could really show them what they’re missing. And he gets to play Carlton again in Round 21.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/supercoach-news/the-case-for-and-against-picking-richmonds-tom-lynch-in-supercoach/news-story/baa0f7206c3c38042fc3548391dec422
