Back to their best or key flaw unlocked? The case for a Tigers flagMarch 7, 2019
Max Laughton
FOX SPORTSIf we’ve learned one thing over the past three seasons, it’s that almost anyone can win the AFL premiership.
The Western Bulldogs won it from seventh, Richmond went from 13th to a flag, and last year West Coast were widely tipped to miss the eight - or even claim the wooden spoon - but earned premiership glory.
So ahead of the 2019 season, Foxfooty.com.au is doing its previews a bit differently. This is why your team can win the flag. This is the case for Richmond.
WHAT WOULD THEM WINNING THE PREMIERSHIP LOOK LIKE?Here’s what the start of a match report from September 28, 2019 could say...
Yellow and back.
Richmond has returned to the top of the AFL mountain, defeating West Coast by 16 points in the 2019 AFL Grand Final.
The battle between the two most recent premiers was a thrilling one, but in now-classic Tigers fashion they pulled away late, with Dustin Martin sending the partisan MCG crowd into raptures with the late sealing goal.
Star recruit Tom Lynch kicked two goals in his first Grand Final but it was fellow forward Jack Riewoldt who claimed the Norm Smith Medal, booting four.
WHAT HAVE THEY DONE TO IMPROVE FROM 2018?Added one of the top free agents to one of the top forward lines.
No, Tom Lynch hasn’t been the absolute superstar his free agency frenzy might have suggested.
But the 26-year-old has still been one of footy’s better key forwards in recent years, and was brilliant in 2016 when he kicked 66 goals, so he’s a heck of an addition to an already strong group.
He joins a group that already features a three-time Coleman medallist in Jack Riewoldt, and four other players either rated elite (in the top 10 per cent of their position) or above average (top 35 per cent); Josh Caddy, Kane Lambert, Shane Edwards and Jack Higgins. Throw in guys like Daniel Rioli and Dan Butler - it’s a deep and talented crew.
Yes, the key to the Tigers’ success has been forward pressure; but for his position Lynch does rate above average in pressure acts and pressure points (not of the Fev/Judd variety).
Adding a new dimension as another tall target will also be a good thing.
WHY CAN THEY WIN THE FLAG?They were the best team in 2018.
For about a half of one game, Richmond was a bad side. It just so happened that half was in a preliminary final.
The Tigers’ season was over once they trailed Collingwood by 44 points at half-time, but before then, there was a reason the reigning premiers were heavily predicted to go back-to-back.
Richmond won 18 games (the most since Hawthorn and Geelong won 19 and 18 respectively in 2013), and had a percentage of 136.1 (the best since 2016, when Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide and GWS all topped that in a very haves-and-have-nots season helped by Essendon’s drug suspensions). They allowed the second-fewest points and scored the second-most.
All of this to say that Richmond was really, really good last year.
Percentage, in particular, is telling. History says it is a better sign of a team’s quality than their pure win-loss record; this makes logical sense because a 100-point win is more impressive than a one-point one.
Only Melbourne and Geelong got close to the Tigers on percentage last season; they were at 131.4 and 131.6 respectively. West Coast was next-best at 121.4.
What that actually means, when comparing Richmond to the 2018 premiers, is the Tigers scored an extra 131 points and allowed 83 fewer over the course of the season.
The counter-arguments to all this are that Richmond didn’t win the flag, and that West Coast won in their only 2018 meeting.
To the second, we respond that that was in Perth not the MCG, and that against all other opposition in the home and away season, the Tigers proved themselves a better side.
To the first, we respond that the very nature of a finals series is that the premier is the team that performs best over that month, not the season overall. See the Western Bulldogs in 2016.
They’re younger than you think.
The general rule is that old teams, not young ones, win flags. They’re more experienced and filled with more players in their primes.
So it might surprise you that Richmond is the sixth-youngest team in the AFL, per Champion Data.
The four oldest players on the Tigers’ list are only 30 - Shane Edwards, Jack Riewoldt, Shaun Grigg and Bachar Houli. Given Edwards and Riewoldt made the All-Australian side in 2018, they’re certainly still at their peaks, while Grigg and Houli aren’t half-bad either.
Alex Rance will join Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin in the 200-game club this year; all three are in their twenties, with Dusty still just 27.
All six Richmond players graded as elite by Champion Data are between 26 and 30, but of their six above average players, all are 27 or younger; Dylan Grimes (27), Tom Lynch (26), Toby Nankervis (24), Nick Vlastuin (24), Jayden Short (23) and Jack Higgins (20).
We haven’t even mentioned players like Jack Graham, Daniel Rioli and Dan Butler who are all 22 or younger.
This team is going to be good for a while.
The fixture is more kind than it probably should be.
How’s this for an oddity; 2018’s minor premier has been given the sixth-easiest fixture for 2019.
The Tigers are helped by their double-ups, which Champion Data doesn’t believe are overly difficult. Melbourne and Collingwood obviously aren’t simple opponents, but Damien Hardwick’s side did go 3-1 against them overall in 2018.
Next-toughest is GWS; not exactly a walk in the park, but the key here it isn’t a side like West Coast.
Both Collingwood and Melbourne play all three other 2018 preliminary finalists twice this season. By virtue of avoiding each other, the Eagles and Tigers do not.
Then Richmond gets a double-up against Port Adelaide; the Power did beat the Tigers in Adelaide last season, but weren’t overly impressive otherwise. And then there’s wooden spooners Carlton - enough said.
More notable is they have an equal-AFL low five interstate trips. Richmond went 1-4 outside of Victoria in 2018, losing to Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS and West Coast, and beating Gold Coast.
That fixture repeats in 2019 but with West Coast being replaced by Fremantle.
The Tigers also don’t play a game outside of Victoria after Round 16.
WHAT COULD STOP THEM FROM WINNING THE FLAG?Two of their rivals might have the key to beating them.
The Tigers have managed to find success over the last two seasons while ignoring a major element of the game; ruck contests.
In 2018, Richmond was last for hitout-to-advantage differential and second-last for clearances per game. On average, the Tigers lost the clearance count by 5.2 each week.
It’s not as if they have a bad ruckman in Toby Nankervis, but this isn’t a side that focuses on winning the ball straight away. Their defence and around-the-ground pressure instead enable them to get the ball back and score from opportune positions.
However in last year’s preliminary final, Collingwood was able to exploit this weakness to a major extent.
The Magpies scored 60 points from clearances on that night, compared to the Tigers’ eight; it wasn’t an issue of Shaun Grigg being the second ruckman either, since most of those points came against Nankervis. Numbers via the 2019 AFL Prospectus.
But the pure dominance of Brodie Grundy, and a brilliant midfield, made it all too much for Richmond to overcome.
Collingwood isn’t the only flag contender with a superstar ruckman and bull-laden midfield; Melbourne will likely look to copy the prelim final blueprint when it faces the Tigers this season, given Max Gawn and co. could do the same thing.
With the Magpies and Demons tipped to feature at the pointy end of the season once again, it’s possible Richmond may just run into a bad matchup in September once again.
Luck is a major feature of any flag; who you play can be one of those features.
It’s hard to keep up the level has been playing at for an entire season.
A month of intense pressure gave Richmond a premiership. A month dropping off from that level might have cost them another.
The Tigers lost their brand from Round 21 onwards in 2018, sitting at a pressure rating of 175; the lowest of the finalists and 12th in the AFL. They were beaten for pressure in their last four games.
By comparison, in 2017, the Tigers hit a pressure rating of 198 from that point of the year onwards.
It’s always hard to look at end-of-season games for a side like Richmond because they didn’t need to win; top spot was essentially locked up heading into Round 22.
But in retrospect, the eight-point win over a desperate Essendon and a three-point thriller against a battling Western Bulldogs side both might not have been as much about the Tigers taking their foot off the pedal, but about them not being in great form.
Even at this lower level, Richmond was good enough to beat Hawthorn by five goals in their qualifying final; but as discussed above, the Pies were good enough to capitalise on the month-long lapse.
Injuries at the pointy end of the season didn’t help. But this is the AFL in 2019; no team plays at their best every week, and even the seemingly ungettable sides are indeed gettable.
If Richmond dominates the home and away season again, they should be favourites to win the flag; but even a favourite heading into an AFL finals series these days is a less than 50-50 shot to win it all.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-season-preview-2019-richmond-the-case-for-the-tigers-returning-to-premiership-glory/news-story/45fe10df06bffb4aa36853bb55aa9af3
