The secret stat to winning a flagSam Edmund,
Herald Sun
May 8, 2019 It’s a bit like the death of the dinosaurs. No one knows exactly how it came to pass.
But a little-known stat has emerged as one of the key ingredients in AFL premierships.
Footy’s archaeologists have traced it back to about six years ago. At that point clubs began to recognise its importance.
The stat is post-stoppage contested ball.
The footy world has long fawned over clearance numbers and contested possessions on a broader level, but it’s the fight to win the ball after it leaves a stoppage that is now football gold.
Garry Lyon this week described it as “footy porn” on On The Couch, and the best teams in the caper have believed for a while now that it contributes to sexy football.
You won’t find it on any game stat sheets — and low-profile Sydney midfielder George Hewitt is the most prolific at it — but eight of the past 10 premiers have ranked inside the top four when it comes to post-stoppage contested possessions.
Its importance is underlined by the fact that the top three on the ladder — Geelong, Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney — are also the top three in post-stoppage contested possession differential.
Carlton, West Coast and Sydney are ranked in the bottom three, while Melbourne’s woes are reflected in its ranking of 14th.
Contested possessions won at ball-ups and boundary throw-ins are done so in more congestion than ever, making it difficult for even the quickest minds to make good decisions.
Post-stoppage is seen as the quality contested ball to win given it comes with fewer bodies in the vicinity and more space as the prize.
Richmond’s pressure in 2017 was so fierce that rivals who won the ball at the source either coughed it up down the line or could generate only “dirty ball” forward entries.
And when the Tigers won it back they had more time and space to take advantage because they did so post-stoppage.Post stoppage contested possession differential ladderGeelong +15.4 (ave)
Collingwood +10.1
GWS +7.7
Fremantle +6.3
Port Adelaide +3.7
Hawthorn +1.4
Adelaide +0.4
Brisbane Lions -0.1
Richmond -0.1Gold Coast -0.9
St Kilda -1.1
North Melbourne -1.9
Western Bulldogs -2.1
Melbourne -3.0
Essendon -4.3
Carlton -5.7
West Coast -12.0
Sydney -13.9
Top 10 post-stoppage contested possessions1. George Hewitt (Syd) 7.6 (ave)
2. Travis Boak (Port) 7
3. Nat Fyfe (Freo) 6.7
4. Lachie Neale (Bris) 6.6
5. Clayton Oliver (Melb) 6.6
6. Ben Cunnington (NM) 6.4
7. Jack Macrae (Dogs) 6.4
8. Rory Sloane (Adel) 6.4
9. Patrick Cripps (Carl) 6.3
10. Dustin Martin (Rich) 6.2Source: CHAMPION DATAhttps://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/the-secret-stat-that-has-become-important-to-winning-the-premiership/news-story/e88e95255cf21cce36339a08a93920d8
