The big question that still casts doubt over Tigers’ AFL dynasty claimsJacob Polychronis
October 24, 2020 1:58pm
FOX SPORTSWith a win over Geelong at the Gabba on Saturday night, Richmond will achieve unofficial AFL dynasty status with its third premiership since 2017.
Why three is the magic number, and whether or not it should be, are both debates for another time.
The fact is only two other teams have won three flags within four seasons since the creation of the AFL: Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn.
Both are undisputed AFL dynasties.
Comparing the three teams is no easy task. The way footy is played today compared to when the Lions won their first premiership in 2001 is almost unrecognisable.
But there are certain metrics that allow us to fairly pit the teams against each other — and they paint a fascinating picture.
THE NUMBERSThe Lions of 2001-2004, Hawthorn of 2011-2015 and Richmond of 2017-present each have remarkably similar win percentages, points scored rankings and winning margins in finals games.
Champion Data shows the Hawks have the highest win percentage, winning 79 per cent of their games between 2011 and 2015, in which they played in four Grand Finals, won three, and featured in another preliminary final.
After the Hawks, it’s a tie between triple premiers Brisbane and the Tigers on 74 per cent.
In terms of points scored, both Brisbane and Hawthorn were ranked No. 1 during their dynasties with 110.6 and 111.6 respectively. Richmond’s average of 86.3 has it ranked at No. 2 since 2017.
Where the Tigers have excelled in the past four seasons, however, is in finals matches where they have an average winning margin of 39.8, according to Champion Data. That’s 5.3 points greater than the Hawks on 33.5.
The Lions narrowly have the greatest finals winning margin on 41.8, but played in a far higher-scoring era compared to today, making the Tigers’ number arguably more remarkable.
ELITE EXECUTIONTriple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo had the pleasure — or displeasure — of playing against all three groups having been drafted in 2001.
While he concedes comparing each team is tough, he highlighted two key qualities that marries them together: Leadership and their elite game plan execution.
Speaking of the latter, Dal Santo broke down the teams’ styles and how they became unstoppable.
“You look at Brisbane Lions; everyone knew their game style, everyone knew they were going to surge the ball forward out of the stoppage for example,” he told foxsports.com.au. “But when they had the midfield that they did, they were able to do it.
“It was just a matter of trying to stop them and you just couldn’t do it. We played them in a final once (in 2004) and you knew their game style but you just couldn’t stop it. They were just really good at what they did.
“You look at the Tigers over the last three of four years; everyone knows they handball the ball forward. They’re one of the very few teams that has metres gained from handballs … once again, can you stop it? I think they all had their distinctive style.
“The Hawks; their ball movement was quite tacking, in sailing terms. They go 45 (degrees forward), 45, 45 and before you know it they take the ball from the back pocket to half-forward and you sort of feel like they haven’t gone anywhere with long kicks, but they get through your defence without any risk really.
“So I think all of them have been exceptional at what they do.”
LEADERSHIPDal Santo said each dynasty also had outstanding leaders, singling out Michael Voss (Lions), Luke Hodge (Hawks) and Trent Cotchin (Tigers) as drivers of success.
The 300-gamer said Voss in particular was one of the hardest opponents he ever came up against, while the former Lions captain was also incredibly demanding of his players.
“I remember being on the ground playing against him and the way he’d speak to teammates — they were things that were just unacceptable, and they were so regimented in the way they played,” he said.
“You look at Hodgey — exactly the same. Joel Selwood, the same. And maybe Cotchin.”
Speaking of Tigers captain Cotchin, Dal Santo added: “I know the game has changed a little bit with the way you speak to each other and the way leadership is these days, but Cotchin deserves credit as well because he’s changed his game.
“Not long ago he was considered selfish and just wanted to get lots of the ball himself and they weren’t winning. He’s evolved his game and now he’s one of the hardest players at the footy and the opposition and it has almost become his role.
“When leaders do that it becomes the standard and it becomes what he has to do.
“So that’s probably a common trend that these midfielders in particular are just uncompromising, every single time.”
But the strong leadership from within each team’s ranks hasn’t had to come from an official source.
While Hodge was arguably the standout player for the Hawks during finals games, the Lions counted on Simon Black, and the Tigers on Dustin Martin, to deliver matchwinning performances.
This table from Champion Data below shows how the fantastic finals dynasty numbers from each player compare.
DISPOSALS1. Simon Black (Brisbane) — 25.8
2. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) — 23.7
3. Dustin Martin (Richmond) — 22.5
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS1. Simon Black (Brisbane) — 13.2
2. Dustin Martin (Richmond) — 12.8
3. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) — 8.4
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS1. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) — 15.1
2. Simon Black (Brisbane) — 12.8
3. Dustin Martin (Richmond) — 8.7
CLEARANCES1. Simon Black (Brisbane) — 5.4
2. Dustin Martin (Richmond) — 4.2
3. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) — 3.3
GOALS1. Dustin Martin (Richmond) — 1.9
2. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) — 1.1
3. Simon Black (Brisbane) — 0.7
SCORE INVOLVEMENTS1. Dustin Martin (Richmond) — 8.8
2. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) — 6.7
3. Simon Black (Brisbane) — 5.6
SO, WHO IS BETTER?That’s almost impossible to discern and any determination will likely be riddled with subjectivity — although a loss on Saturday night will surely put a line through the Tigers.
Dal Santo stressed the quality of Richmond, but also noted a point of difference in their Grand Final wins.
“The Tiges played against the Crows in 2017 and the Crows after about 15 minutes were minimal. They didn’t give much after that,” he said. “Then you go to last year’s Grand Final where the Giants were on Perth time; they were two or three hours behind the game! They weren’t there and they got absolutely thumped.
“Then you go back to the Lions, they beat Essendon (by 26 points) and Collingwood by nine points the second time. (They had) three really tough finals which was great, then they lose their fourth (against Port Adelaide).
“The Hawks I think did it a little bit more comfortably … but the Tiges have had two really easy wins on Grand Final day.”
As such, this year’s Grand Final against the experienced Cats could be Richmond’s ultimate test, while a win will be a genuine dynasty sealer.
“I think this will be their hardest game,” Dal Santo said.
“So I don’t know whether that comes into calculation, who you actually play against on Grand Final day, but I don’t want to take anything away from the Tiges.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-grand-final-2020-richmond-vs-geelong-preview-how-tigers-compare-to-dynasties-stats/news-story/5a3aed1f05200b3a92836dc274011f3a
