Richmond must fix unforced turnover problem or “it’s curtains” (HeraldSun)

[one-eyed]

The problem Richmond must fix or “it’s curtains” for the Tigers’ premiership hopes

David King and stats guy Daniel Hoyne discussing Richmond.

Watch (16:30 min mark): https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/purefooty/pure-footy-david-king-and-daniel-hoyne-lift-lid-on-afl-trends-stats-after-round-13/news-story/ffa193184d6e6a885411ecf841d77290

Richmond vs West Coast game score source:
                Rich  WCE
Turnovers    66   41
Stoppages   15   38

Richmond's offence:

Offensive side of Richmond's game is working well.

Points differential from turnovers - last 5 weeks.
#1. Richmond
#2. Geelong
#3. Bulldogs

Only conceded 41 points from turnovers against West Coast.

Richmond's defence:

Defence is bleeding though.

Ranked in the top 3 the previous 4 years.
Rounds 1-8, 2021:  7th ........... 85 average marks per game
Rounds 9-13, 2021: 12th .......... 107 average marks per game

Risk of going to a kick mark game is you bleed more if you turn it over.

Giveaway turnovers (unforced skill level turnovers):
Wins:    26.6
Losses: 32.5

Richmond gifted the ball back to the Eagles 38 times on the weekend which is a huge number. That's simply giving the ball to the opposition without them doing anything (i.e. not forced errors due to the opposition's system or pressure).

36 of the 41 points West Coast got from turnovers was from our unforced giveaway turnovers.

Those unforced errors make it so hard to defend (eg: Vlastuin's kick in defence straight to an Eagle).

Richmond has a real problem. This is what average teams do.

This is now a trend and these high number of unforced giveaway turnovers has resulted in 5 of Richmond's 6 losses (Brisbane loss being the exception).

If Richmond can somehow fix this up then the rest of their game is in good shape. However, if they can't then it's curtains!

Ranking giveaway turnovers (lowest #1):
2017  #1
2018  #1
2019  #3
2020  #2
R1-8, 2021  #8
R9-13, 2021 #13

It's more than a small issue. It's a dramatic change. It's forced Richmond to change the way they play and they are now chasing for marks. David King doesn't believe this issue will just right itself.

Two big games in a few weeks against Brisbane & Geelong will be telling. If Richmond continue to trend they way they are then they will at best split these games and remain on the ladder where they are now.