Pies & Tigers plot different paths as randomness of footy plays its part (ABC)

[one-eyed]

Collingwood and Richmond plot different paths as randomness of footy plays its part

ABC Grandstand
18 July 2022

A flip of the coin

We, as human beings, don't handle uncertainty and randomness very well. Most of us prefer to see the world through an ordered and logical lens, so the thought that chance and luck have as much to do with our fate as design and intention is an unsettling one.

Never does that tend to become more clear than when games of football get close.

If a team have a poor record in those matches, it's easier to presume they possess a fatal flaw in their mentality and can be dismissed as contenders for premierships or finals or whatever their stated aim is.

If they have a good record in the tight ones? Maybe they've just got that dawg in them.

The truth of the matter is once games are being decided by under 10 points, and even more so under a goal, it's a flip of the coin. It could genuinely go either way. Mental toughness and experience may give you a slight edge, but it's not nearly as one-to-one as we like to think.

Which is worth remembering because those games are going to decide the 2022 AFL season.

Look at Collingwood, for example. The Pies are on a hot streak of eight straight wins, including by the following margins: five points against Adelaide, seven points against North, five points against the Suns, four points against Hawthorn, four points against Carlton.

Then look at Richmond. They've lost three of their last four by margins of four points against North, two points against the Suns and three points against Geelong.

The upshot from those runs of results is the Pies are only out of third spot on percentage while the Tigers are deep in the dog fight to scrape into the eight.

Is one of these teams three wins better than the other? On balance probably not, but that's not what the ladder says.

While it's not completely fair to simply say Collingwood have been luckier than Richmond, there is an alternate universe not too far from this one in which their fates are flipped. But that's the beauty of the game: the fine margins make all the difference.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/more-sports/afl-round-up-collingwood-and-richmond-plot-different-paths-as-randomness-of-footy-plays-its-part/ar-AAZFPua?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1dbd980080bc4159a42f4fd426efbc58

[the claw]

Okay lets revisit 2017. We won 18 and lost 7

We played in 5 close games in 2017 and lost all 5 by 14, 9, 5,3,2. IT MEANT JACK poo because quite literally in close games its a throw of the dice on who finishes in front when the siren goes.
If you lose every mistake is highlighted but win and only the positives are shown despite the mistakes that are also made.

If a collingwood supporter id be more worried about the close wins than the losses. they have shown an inability to put sides away and if you think about it it is showing they are evenly matched with sides and next time its a game that can go either way.

So far they have played 6 of the other 7 teams in the 8 and are 3 and 3 they won two comfortably lost one to us by 27 and the rest were you guessed it close 4, 7, 13 points.

I think in a lot of cases percentage is a good indicator of where a team is at and collingwoods percentage depite all the wins is more middle of the road than top 4 currently 9th.