The Tigers of Old? Not according to Champion Data (SEN)

[one-eyed]

THE TIGERS OF OLD? NOT ACCORDING TO CHAMPION DATA

Seb Mottram
SEN
16 May 2023

There’s plenty of optimism at Tigerland after knocking off the reigning premiers, but Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne isn’t buying back in.

Damien Hardwick’s men scored the win of their season on Friday night when knocking off the Cats to the tune of 24 points, registering their third win of the year.

The aftermath was all about what it meant for the future, with David King one of a number of figures to say “they’re back.”

Despite rating the Tigers’ chances in the pre-season, Hoyne – Champion Data’s Competition Analysis Teams Lead – believes Richmond’s profile hasn’t changed from the poor form on show earlier this year.

“I was massive on Richmond heading into this year, I’m just going to put that out there. I was huge on them, I thought they had every chance to finish top four on the back of what they did last year and really probably should have finished a lot higher on the ladder than what they did,” Hoyne told SEN’s Sportsday.

“I’d been holding and holding, but after that Gold Coast performance (in Round 7) a couple of weeks ago I had to concede.

“And I’m not jumping back on, on the back of what they did against Geelong.

“Heading into that Geelong game, I thought they did what they should have done against Geelong given Geelong’s outs and (the fact) they’d won five in a row, it’s hard in this comp to win six in a row, we know that.

“So I thought they did what they actually should have done.”

The Cats were missing the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Sam De Koning, Rhys Stanley, Brad Close and up to five more best 22 players in Round 9 through injury and suspension.

But Hoyne also suggested an inaccurate Geelong outfit kicked themselves out of the clash when booting 5.11 in the first half.

“Based on accuracy, if Geelong had taken their chances in the first half in particular, Geelong should have been in front by two or three goals at half-time and who knows what actually happens in the second half,” Hoyne continued.

“So if you look at their profile in terms of the last four weeks compared to the last five weeks in terms of a scoreboard perspective both in the turnover game and clearance game, the rankings haven’t changed.

“They’ve got from 10th in the turnover game to 9th… and then in the clearance game they’ve gone from 12th to 9th.

“So a slight increase, but we're not jumping up and down saying this is a profile jumping off the page right now.”

However, Hoyne did praise a rejuvenated Richmond defence that’s been able to better hold up in their back 50, while he also suggested Dustin Martin is a top-10 player in the competition on current form based on the minutes he’s playing.

The Tigers lost a stretch of five consecutive games between Rounds 3 and 7 but have now won two games on the trot.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/05/16/the-tigers-of-old-not-according-to-champion-data/

[yandb]

Cherry picking the stats.

[lamington]

Was it the Carlton match against st kilda where they won every major stat but still lost by 5 goals?

The only stat that truly matters is the score line. And that applies for us as well. We don’t want to hear “oh we won the hit outs, contested possessions, had more i50s etc” when we get smacked

[Broadsword]

1. Saying that Geelong had won 5 in a row and 6 is highly unlikely is a classic case of the Gambler's Fallacy. It's irrelevant.

2. We've kicked inaccurately in the past: does that lessen the significance of our losses if Geelong kicking inaccurately lessens the significance of our win?

3. We've had a long injury list in the past: does that lessen the significance of our losses if Geelong having a long injury list lessens the significance of our win?

By all means get off us and stay off us, but have some better reasons.