Hopper/Taranto Deal Drama: comparison to past Drafts - debunked!

[TigerLand]

I wanted to do a proper comparison wmof what we may have given up in previous drafted/eras. The picks ended up being Year 1 Pick 14 and 22 (because of father sons)
and
Year 2 Pick 10 (let's use the Doomsday scenario and say we finish 9th or 10th which gives us Pick 10 (with a top 10 pick being father son or academy which has been the case last few drafts) and Pick 35 which always gets pushed out a few picks (originally Pick 31)

So:
2020 Pick 14
2020 Pick 22
2021 Pick 10 (Educated guess Pick 9 with 1 top 10 pick as father son)
2021 Pick 35 (Pick 31 pushed out thanks to Father Son and Academy picks)

2020 and 2021 years
Players would have been:

Pick 14 2020 = Tanner Bruhn (average)
Pick 22 2020 = Bailey Laurey (yet to debut)
Pick 10 2021 = Neil Erasmus
Pick 35 2021 = Paul Curtis

I'm not convinced those 4 players will have half the impact of what Taranto and Hopper will have regardless of age and longer potential of games played. Apart from Erasmus I'm not interested in any of those players in comparison.

You could go back 2 more years to compare 2018 and 2019 hypothetical trade:

Pick 14 2018 - Jackson Hatley
Pick 22 2018 - Xavier OHalleron
Pick 10 2019 - Tom Green
Pick 35 2019 - Flynn Perez

So with 2 year examples of 8 players there is only 1 that would compete with Taranto or Hopper in worth or value, Tom Green.

If we go back to Tarantos draft to get maybe a better age like comparison as people say Taranto and Hopper currency and value can't be compared with kids who may end up being All Aus.
Taranto was Pick 2 in 2016. So 2016 and 2017 comparison.

2016 Pick 14 - Harry Perrymen
2016 Pick 12 - Jordan Ridley
2017 Pick 10 - Lachie O'Brien
2017 Pick 35 - Oscar Clavarino

Again give me 2/3s of Hopper and Taranto careers over those 4 full careers every day of the week. Not one is better than Taranto or Hopper.

3 draft examples I'm still not seeing any enormous loss of value or player currency there like it is being made out to be. If you have any criticism it may be the length of the deals and how that may restrict us going forward for trading and free agency, or signing up uncontacted RFC players. But in terms of pure like for like (using those 3 examples) we have not traded away miss opportunities compared to what we have received.

Don't get sucked into media hype and stories who are making out we have missed out on the next Dusty Martin or Chris Judd. It's absolutely ridiculous.

[Andyy]

Thank you!

Yep the clubs are quickly figuring out that anything outside the top 1-5 picks is basically a gamble. Better off with 5-8 years of a quality player than 3-5 of a dud pick who can't earn a game.

Look at guys like RCD, C Ellis, B Lennon, heck even Dow. May as well have just traded them all away when you see clubs like Port getting blokes like Aliir and Finlayson for 3rd rounders.

[Hard Roar Tiger]

There’s a great stat floating around where they look at the average games, b&f’s, aa’s and then top 5 players from all drafts in last 15-20 years.

Basically, it says 1-5 has a much higher probability of success from 5-10 and then it falls off a cliff from 15.
15-40 are really where recruiters earn their money - it’s a bit like close games where how well the research and then select on the night can make the difference which is why richer clubs are more prepared to swap high first rounders for low second or even high third rounders and then back in their development teams to finish off that work.

I think there an over emphasis on high picks with most premiership clubs nailing the rookie draft in particular or taking players from other clubs with limited opportunities and making them high impact role players

Off the top, Georgie, Bakes, Shorty, Grimes, Nank, Broady, Graham, Pickett and even Soldo are premiership players from being low draft/rookies or traded.

That’s where flags are really won.

[Willy]

you still need the high-end on top of that, which we had in Cotch, Dust etc.

[TigerLand]

Blues had one of the most top 3 picks in their 22 in the Juds era with Gibbs, Kreuzer, Murphy etc. And couldn't even get close. Plus there other first rounders.

Taranyonwas pick 2 and we've given up the combo of any of those players above. Every example is a win.

More focus on sorting out our list so it can play a premiership winning game plan.