Every Tigers loss is a Giant winMichael Gleeson
The Age
April 23, 2023 — 8.02pmPLAYING FOR THE FUTURE
Tonight Melbourne play Richmond. The Giants will quietly sit and salve the wound of another competitive loss with the comfort of barracking for the short-priced Demons to have their way with Richmond.
A Richmond loss is a Giant win.
Richmond, like Fremantle, punted on their season this year. Based on an educated guess of how their seasons might go both the Dockers and Tigers threw in their first-round picks in this year’s draft to get trade deals done. In Richmond’s case it was essentially part of the total package in the double deal to secure Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto from GWS. And the Dockers had to toss in this year’s pick along with last year’s to get the Jackson deal done.
Both clubs did so in the confident expectation they would likely be trading picks in the teens in this year’s draft to go with the first-round picks from last year’s draft (and ancillary other picks) in their respective trades.
Currently, Richmond are fourth last, Freo sixth bottom. They will probably not finish that low, but presently both clubs face paying a much bigger price for their players than they thought they were paying when they did the deals. That doesn’t make the deals wrong, but they do now look likely to be more expensive than they thought they were.
Clubs are optimists. They all believe they are close to a flag and find the recruit coming in far more tantalising than the future pick going out. No club trades out a future first-round pick thinking they are going to go worse.
Ask any coach or president in February how their season will go and barring about two clubs they will tell you if everything goes right they will make the eight/four/win the flag.
Seldom do they say ‘if we have a normal year and normal number of injuries and normal number of upset losses we’ll go backwards’. They don’t think that way.
Clubs trade future picks like house buyers who only expect interest rates to drop.
Richmond’s season is drifting for a mix of foreseeable and unforseeable reasons. Old players fall off the perch quickly, players young and old (Gibcus and Nankervis, Short, Prestia, get injured) some get suspended (Broad). At this point in their year they could still go in any direction, but the most likely prediction is not as glass half full as it was in October last year.
The deal on the pair was for long term and is not one that will or should be judged now after five rounds. They were brought in as transitional players not transformational ones. They are hoped to bridge the Tigers to the next flag and keep them in contention as they transition the old players out. But the price they are likely to end up paying is looking bigger than they thought it would be, which is the risk of trading your future to build a future.
Meanwhile, the Demons happily watch the Dockers lose and the Giants tonight sit and barrack for the Demons to help them out.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/afl/four-points-demons-death-ride-dockers-every-tigers-loss-is-a-giant-win-those-serious-saints-20230423-p5d2mj.html