Tigers tipped to fail (Age)

[one-eyed]

Tigers tipped to fail
Cameron Noakes
December 18, 2009


IT SEEMS cruel, almost senseless, to crush the spirit of optimistic AFL fans before Christmas, but considering Richmond fans' bulging — and deluded — belief this time last year, it is appropriate that Betfair has handed out an early slice of earthly perspective for the downtrodden Tiger fans and posted their team as a $3.60 favourite for the wooden spoon in 2010.

Despite a new coach, it seems many are expecting the same old heartbreaking fate for the Tigers, who top the market ahead of the embattled Melbourne and North Melbourne, who are both at $5.20.

Sportsbet cannot split Richmond and Melbourne for the spoon and has them equal favourites at $4, with North Melbourne at $5 and Fremantle $6.50.

But it's not all doom and gloom for Richmond and, while most bookmakers do not have wooden-spoon markets up, the Tigers are generally considered a better premiership chance than Melbourne.

Betfair's Jake Norton said sports lovers were seemingly missing AFL action already and were whetting their appetites by punting more than $80,000 on AFL markets for 2010. Geelong and St Kilda are equal favourites to win the flag on the betting exchange at $4.50.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/tigers-tipped-to-fail-20091217-kzy0.html

[WA Tiger]

Oh well let them think what they wan't, we just have to prove them wrong now.

[Owl]

lets hope it works better than the big beatup we had this year lol.

[tiga]

Absolutely! I much prefer people to have little or no expectation of us doing any good next season. The monkey is off our back for the moment and the media spotlight will be pointed at other clubs. This will allow us to focus on the fundamentals which we so desperately need to do whilst we build a solid platform that will put us in good stead for future seasons.

[Smokey]

And I am more than happy to have a little nibble on the Betfair lay at $3.95 for the spoon.  No way on God's green earth will we finish last - put your house on it.

[tiga]

And I am more than happy to have a little nibble on the Betfair lay at $3.95 for the spoon.  No way on God's green earth will we finish last - put your house on it.

Smokey, I'm not much of a betting man but does "lay" mean you are betting that they won't win the wooden spoon?? If so I'd have some dollars on that too!

[Stripes]

The odds are always going to be better for Richmond that sides like Melbourne or North just because more people support the Tigers and follow their progress. The bookies know that and so make their payouts less. Doesn't really reflect our true probability of anything really other than in a very general way.

Stripes

[Smokey]

And I am more than happy to have a little nibble on the Betfair lay at $3.95 for the spoon.  No way on God's green earth will we finish last - put your house on it.

Smokey, I'm not much of a betting man but does "lay" mean you are betting that they won't win the wooden spoon?? If so I'd have some dollars on that too!

Yep, on Befair you are betting against other punters, not a bookmaker or tote.  So to make that work you need punters that want to back an outcome and some that want to lay an outcome.  Backing it means you want it to happen, laying it means you don't.  So if I lay $100 at $3.95 that means I win $100 if we don't win the spoon or I pay out $395 if we do.

[Mr Magic]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

[torch]

are Melbourne really going to win more then 5 matches next year???

with what forward line???

 

[big tone]

are Melbourne really going to win more then 5 matches next year???

with what forward line???

 

The Doggies have done ok in the last couple of years without much up forward. Melbourne will win more than five games.
Not sure about us though??

[Judge Roughneck]

Can you bet if Richmond will make the finals?

if so where?

[Smokey]

Can you bet if Richmond will make the finals?

if so where?

Betfair are running a book to make the 8. Favourites are Geelong at $1.15, outsiders are Melbourne at $7.  We're on $6.


 
 

[Judge Roughneck]

$6 is worth a punt   

[mightytiges]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Spot on Magic. Get behind Hardwick and the cubs who will struggle initially and in 2-3 years time watch them hit their straps. Next year if we win the spoon then we pick up another future gun with pick 4. As you say short term pain for long term gain.