I like the plan, would love to see it come to fruition, but I think it would impress (or appease) more people if the RFC would step it out for us. They say in 5 years they want no debt, 75K members and 3 finals series to be played in - well I would like to see, year-to-year, how they are going to work towards that and what their short-term targets are to achieve this.
It would seem a less "pie in the sky" sort of hope if they could say "We plan to achieve blah, blah this year which will keep us on target to be $0 debt in 5 years. We are going to market this and this with an aim to achieve 35K members this year which will keep us on target for 75K in 5 years"
That sort of outlining gives people short-term focus that we can evaluate the running success, and overall probability, of this plan giving members, supporters, affiliates and the general public a gauge on our progress during our "transformation" year and years to follow.
Maybe they've done that, we won't know until the plan is released to members and we can pore over it thoroughly.
Saw this on BF. We would need to average annually 10% membership growth for the next 5 years to reach 75k
2009: 47,000 incl. non-ticketed
2010: +10% = 51,700
2011: +10% = 56,870
2012: +10% = 62,557
2013: +10% = 68,812
2014: +10% = 75,693
Of course we are below last year's figure already by about 4-5000. Success on-field is what is needed to really boost membership.
As far as the debt, we're unlikely to touch it until all the redevelopment is finished and we can tick it off as fully funded. If the plan is 3 finals within 5 years then the debt won't start being paid off until we see those finals appearances and the increased revenue they generate in terms of membership, crowds, mechandise, sponsors (winning gives you prime time tv spots), etc.
2010: -
2011: $4m
2012: $3.5m
2013: $3m
2014: $2m
2015: $0
As far as finals go IMO the plan has us a year ahead of "schedule". By 2012 our 2009 draftees such as Griffiths and Astbury who we need for team balance and structure up forward will still only be in their 3rd year. They may click but they also could be a year away from a breakout year. 2013 would give them another year (their 4th) and the core of the team will be more mature (Cotch for instance will be 22, Lids 25).
2010: 15th-16th
2011: 13th-14th (club may want 11th-12th)
2012: 11th (club may want 8th = finals)
2013: 6th ........ IMO clubs have breakout years so there's a jump into the finals.
2014: Top 4
2015: Top 4 and a genuine challenger
So 2010 and 2011 we are still dipping into the draft big time and turning over our list. Pick 4 or 6 in 2010 and a top 10 in 2011. After Hardwick's second year he would have effectively turned over the list from when he started.
Of course with clubs that are
rebuilding transforming, the rebuild is not always linear. Some clubs have a step backward year before genuinely challenging for a flag - Geelong in 2006, St Kilda 2007, Bulldogs 2007?. The Hawks were the exception.