Now I don't wish this on anyone but it only takes one of the Labor Party to kick the bucket and we are off to an early election.
I bet Oakeshott and Windsor have already done refresher CPR courses and now carry their own personal defibrillator units.
Would a resignation also force us to an early election??
A death or resignation in the Reps would force a by-election in that seat. If that causes a change in numbers on the floor of the parliament then either side will be asked to again try and form a working majority via some coalition of parties and independents. If no majority can be formed then the Governor-General will call an election. Remember though the speaker is a Labor candidate so Labor would try to get one of the LNP MPs or even Bob Katter or the independent WA National to become speaker so as to maintain a working majority.
Of course on the issue of carbon pricing there's always the possibility of Turnbull crossing the floor to support a ETS. He's contradicted Abbott's stance regularly. All hypotheticals of course unlike a Lib senator on a shoplifting spree
. Lucky for Abbott she's only a senator who if convicted can be automatically replaced with another Liberal under the post-1975 dismissal rule change. If she had been a MP it would've been bigger news.
In Victoria when Bracks won as a minority government in 1999 everyone said it wouldn't last 3-6 months and we were only one by-election away from it all falling over. 3 years later he won the next election in a landslide. Like footy, two years is a very long time in politics. Unlike now, in 2013 it'll be Abbott advocating change to a system already in place for a year whereas the Government will be supporting the 'status quo'. The politics has a long long way to go before it is played out.