Will we win a flag by 2014? Yes or No and the Reasons Why!

[10 FLAGS]

Ok lads just a basic question

Will we win a flag by 2014? Yes or No

And Your Reasons

 

[Hellenic Tiger]

I am going to say no right at this stage.

Reason will all depend on how the kids come on this year and 2012.
Need blokes like Astbury Grimes, Gourdis, Rance improve and hold down a KPP in the backline
Griffiths needs to get games into him and Jack needs to keep improving one of Vickery or Post has to become a regular as well as our mids skills and decision making improve.


I think we have some exceptional talent in Lids Martin Riewoldt
Success will depend on the development of our second tier blokes improving as Edwards did last year
that onus will fall on blokes like Webberley, O'Reilly, Vickery, Post, Taylor, Nason.

Success will be dependant on how quick these blokes develop. I think key ingredients such as off field stability and a driven coaching staff who are looking to succeed and try different formulas in adopting a certain type of style to play as opposed to giving coaching a go and tokenly coaching for 3-5 yrs and supplementing their business and media interests helps also.

Smart drafting this year also with a compromised draft where we select players that if we can will fill a specific need whether KPP ruck mid etc depending on where we are lacking as well as when we will be ready to assault 2014 onwards trading intelligently as we did with Tambling. No half fixes must complete the rebuild we have started from the 2009 end of season draft.

For me 2011 7-10 wins
2012 10 -13 wins possibly a seventh or eighth place
2014 13-14 wins 5th or 6th place maybe a top 4
2015 definentely top 4

If that equates to a flag possibly but it will depend on psyche, injuries, hunger, effort in both players and coaches and admin so its all encompasing on and off the field.

For me 2015 seems to be my logical time frame on a flag but I won't be disappointed if 2014 is the year or earlier.

[Danog]

2014-2016 is our window.

[Judge Roughneck]

Reason; yes

why?;  deledio will cut his wrists if he has been and this club ten years and still won nothing.

[Mr Magic]

Yes. We have some genuine guns on the rise and a young, hungry coach who knows what it takes.

[Infamy]

Can we? Absolutely
Will we? Borderline, but I reckon we'll be seriously challenging up in the Top 4 by then

[Tigeritis™©®]

2014?... I was checking the Mayan calendar and it only went up to 21/12/2012.   

[10 FLAGS]

2014?... I was checking the Mayan calendar and it only went up to 21/12/2012.   

Thanks for the Good News lol 

[tony_montana]

from what i see right now definitely not, although we should be aiming to be a consistent finals side by then. Apart from the Hawks fluke, it takes years of improvement and list development year by year before a side becomes strong enough to challenge - look at the cats 2 prelims in 03/04 with a young up ad coming side followed by 2 years of indifferent form before fnally clicking. Pies have been a consistent finals side for several years leading up to the 2010 premiership, they got finals experience fantastic development and they finally got there but it was years in the making and planning.

We've only just developed a core now - Lids, Jack, Cotch and Martin well you can build a premiership side around those 4 future A-graders. Its how the rest come on that determines where we go but we're heading in the right direction. If players like Conca, Griffiths, Vickery, Astbury, Edwards, Foley becme mainstays then I'll feel confident we are deadset on the way...

Massive couple of years coming up for the club

[Dubstep Dookie]

Most likely not. 

For every potential gun young draft pick we have I can name another 4-5 clubs with the same. Carlton, North, Melbourne are the obvious ones.

And I think we tend to overrate our list. A lot.

I think we will play finals but it's going to take a good run with injuries and some bad luck with other clubs to make a grand final. 

Most likely scenario is we win a couple of finals from 2013-16.

Then gold coast and west Sydney steamroll over the top of everyone.   

[Stripes]

I think there's a possibility but everything would have to go right for it to become a reality.

Three years on maybe might be a little too soon given the sheer amount of unknown quanities we have on our list.


Here is how to read my convoluted 2014 team -
Bolded Player - 'Certain' Starters/1st Tier
Italics Players - 'Established' Potential Stars/2nd Tier

Letters represent different position that are still yet to be filled/taken.

FB -        A                       B                       C

HB -  Connors    Astbury     Deledio

C -          D                 Martin     Edwards

Foll -        E               Cotchin       Foley

HF -   Morton              F                       G

FF -         H                 Riewoldt           I

Potential Players
A (Midsized backman) - Butcher, Rance, Dea, Farmer

B & C (Tall Backman) - Gourdis, Grimes, Thurfield, McGuane (too old?),

D (Wingman) - Grigg, Conca, Helbig, Webberley, Cotin(sp?), Jackson

E (1st Ruck) - Graham, Browne

F (CHF) - Griffiths, Post, Taylor, Westoff,

G (HFF/Goal-kicking Midfielder) - Houli, White, Farmer, McDonald, Hicks,

H (Tall Forward/2nd Ruck) - Vickery, Post, Derickx
All of our 2nd rucks could ultimately take claim the first ruck spot in the future from Graham who is yet to cement the position himself.

I (Defensive Small) - King (too old?), Nahas, Nason




To claim the major prize in 2014 we would first  need our 'stars' to remain injury free - Jack, Lids, Cotch, Martin and even Foley (Cogs anyone?!  ) . Next we would have to see players such as Astbury, Edwards, Griffiths and Vickery either join the afore mentioned players on the 1st tier or become solid second tier talent.

Next we would need our tall players to come on together.

We still have a huge amount of holes all over the ground that would need to be filled particularly up either end with our talls. I have far more confidence we will have the engine room required to win a premiership, based on their proformance to date, than confidence that we will have the talls. For mine, we only have 2 talls that have shown anywhere near the performance in their short careers to give the feeling they could become premiership players - Riewoldt and Astbury. All of Griffiths, Vickery, Post, Grimes, etc still have not shown enough to date to give anyone but the mst optomistic supporters complete confidence they they will become established players let alone A-graders. I am extremely hopeful that two or three shown enough this year to change that view though  

Stripes

[WilliamPowell]

Far to many variables to give a definite yes or no

If the question was "will we be in a position to challenge for a flag by 2014"

My answer would be "bloody hope so"  Actually my answer would be "yes but we'd need a lot of thngs to go our way to win it". Injuries are the key, history show you need to have very few injuries going into final campaigns...

I suppose my view is like Infamy's:

Can we? Absolutely
Will we? Borderline, but I reckon we'll be seriously challenging up in the Top 4 by then

You play finals consistently over a period then you are chance at a flag and if like Sydney back in the mid 2000's you've got no injuries then you just might be able to snatch one even if you ar enot the best team in the comp

[Hard Roar Tiger]

I don't know how you can even post in these forums during the season let alone be posting in January and NOT hold some hope of a real push for the flag in 2014-2016.

Obviously we will need a number of things to fall our way but who doesn't?

If you stack up the facts with regard to our list it looks a daunting objective but look at Collingwoods list 3 or 4 years ago.
Good development programs and incredible belief in the coaching staff and the game plan can take a team a long way.

Playing the boundary a tactic that wins flags?
Go figure but any plan is only as good as the execution.

The only thing I would say that will prevent our club from getting to the top end of the ladder is division in any form at any level when things go wrong.

From coaching panel/match committee to playing group, administration and board level - they need to be pulling in the one direction.

It has broken our club over the past 30 years and is the single most important factor in ensuring the club is successful on and off field in years to come.

[Coach]

Stripes, who the stuff is Butcher 

[WilliamPowell]

Stripes, who the eff is Butcher 

I think he means Batchelor