Unless Cloke takes Collingwood's offer for 4 years, he wont be there.
They have clearly told him this is the best he is getting, and started to sign other players around that deal (therefore showing him he isn't going to get any better from them).
If he wants 5 years, it will be at either Carlton or Richmond. I can't see him leaving Victoria and it's laughable to think that he would go to Melbourne (although, stranger things have happened and money does talk).
I think we are in the box seat if he doesn't sign, which would be good recruiting via FA if we get both Chaplin and Cloke.