ROUND 9 - RICHMOND vs BRISBANE at the 'Gabba (Away)
SUMMARY:
After disposing of cellar dweller Collingwood last week with a eight goal blitz led by Nathan Brown with five of his own, Richmond fly north to Brisbane for their first interstate match of the year at the 'Gabba this Saturday night. The match is the first of a challenging month for the Tigers as all the upcoming opponents are just on the heels of us and vying for a top eight spot. A few wins beginning this weekend would see the Tiges maintain their current game or two over the rest of the pack. Richmond have made two changes with one forced through the two week to Ray Hall. First gamer Adam Pattison returns to Coburg after getting a brief taste. In for them come Stafford and Hyde both returning from injury. Rumouredly there may be a late change in regards to Stafford. We'll have to wait and see.
Our opponent this week Brisbane have only shown rare glimpses of the all-conquering teams from the past four years. Despite dominant wins over the Saints in the first game of the season and Essendon more recently, they have also put in a few shockers against Hawthorn and the Eagles and been knocked off in their last three home games at what was their fortress - the 'Gabba. Last week they just hung on for a narrow win away to the Crows after being five goals up at half time. Still it will be a major challenge for the Tigers up there as we have lost our past five encounters against them and we've only defeated the Lions at the 'Gabba once (in mid 2000) from seven visits. At the selection table Brisbane suffered a blow with midfielder/forward Luke Power missing due to a wrist injury. They do however regain inconsistent full-forward Bradshaw back from a hamstring injury but once again rumour has it that veteran ruckman Clark Keating may be at late inclusion.
PAST ENCOUNTERS:
Overall: 4-7
In the 00's: 2-5 (Lions have won the last 5)
At the 'Gabba: 1-6
Last Time:
Round 14, 03.07.04. Away at the 'Gabba
Richmond 4.4 6.7 10.10 14.12-96
Brisbane 4.1 10.4 12.8 17.12-114
Multiple Goalkickers: Richmond - Schulz 6, Ottens 2; Brisbane - Lynch 4, Charman 3, Caracella 3, Black 2.
Attendance: 32,744
KEY STATS AND MATCH-UPS:
DEFENCE: On the back of containing Port, Carlton and the Pies in the last three week to lowish scores, Richmond's backline is now rated 6th strongest in the AFL conceding 90 points per game. A far cry from earlier in the year and the past three seasons. The loss of Hall for the next two weeks is a blow as he has stood up well at Centre Half-Back since getting a seniors recall in round 3. Thus Kellaway and Graham will need to take on further responsiblilities this week with Bowden a potential back-up after his effort in the corresponding game last year where he got the better of the stronger and larger Lion Centre Half-Forward Jonathan Brown.
The Brisbane attack is ranked 9th in the competition (90 points per game) and 13th in Inside 50's averaging 47 (the Tiges are 2nd with 56). The loss of Lynch and his unbelievable strength 1-on-1 at full forward has significantly reduced the effectiveness of the Lions' forward structure as they simple can't bomb the footy to the top of the square anymore. To add to their problems Bradshaw has had a inconsistent 2005 being in and out of the side with hamstring injuries. Jonathan Brown's return three weeks ago has at least given them a big target to kick to although he was quiet against the Crows in a scrappy affair after starring in his first two games back. He (with 14 goals from 3 games) and Bradshaw (12 from 5) are the main tall avenues to goal. Gas and Kellaway will get first crack at each respectively. The Lions have also named young tall Daniel Merret in a forward pocket in an attempt to stretch our defence height-wise. When he isn't having a run in the ruck Graham will have to spend more time on the ground in the backline minding him. This would allow our backline structure to remain fairly much the same as it has been this year.
At ground level in a ploy to add more goalscoring avenues Leigh Matthews has played Chris Scott in a small/mid-sized forward role this year with some success (10 goals) in the last month. The other main threat up forward is of course Akermanis (10 goals) running forward. He is also ranked number one in the AFL in inside 50's and total clearances so he needs to be one of three players IMO to be shut down. I would let Newman run with Aker and Chaffey to take Chris Scott. If that's not working then swap them over.
MIDFIELD: The battle in the midfield looks like being one of contrasting styles. The Lions will try to keep the game tight and bash and crash their way to victory outmuscling and outpowering us in-close to win the ball forward. Brisbane lead the competition in tackles, one percenters and spoils where we're ranked as one of the poorer sides in those areas. They would have studied how we got ourselves in a muddle and committed a number of clangers against the Pies last week when the game was dragged down into a scrap despite us winning more of the footy at stoppages and having more inside 50's. On the other hand, the Tigers will want to use their strength of clearing the ball from stoppages (2nd in winning contested footy with Tuck and Cogs in the top 10 of the competition) to feed our runners into space so they can run and carry the footy forward into a relatively open forward line.
Richmond amazingly average a whopping 50 more possessions (2nd in the AFL) and 27 more marks (4th in the league ) per game than the Lions who are ranked 14th in each. We should be basically copying what the Bulldogs did to Brisbane two weeks ago at the 'Gabba. We've seen in the last three weeks that once our midfielders are allowed space to run we slam on goals in quick succession. Hopefully our pace, intensity, pressure and teamwork in the midfield boosted with Hyde returning will allow us to get on top or at least break even in the midfield especially with Power (top 10 in winning uncontested footy) absent and the likes of champions such as Voss (average 16 possessions) becoming not as influential as they use to be due to age and injury. They still have their premiership class players in Simon Black (averaging 20 possessions and returned to form last week with 32), Aker (21 possies) and Lappin (22) who can turn it on but we now at least on paper have some quality and depth in our midfield through Cogs (23 possies), Tuck (22), Johnson (20), Hyde (20), Bowden (24 - top 10) and Brown (20) to match up on them and cope with negators such as Copeland and Brad Scott. As for who we target IMO that would be Aker who as mentioned above is number one in the AFL for clearances and entries inside 50 and Black who is also a linchpin as when he is held, as we saw in last year's grand final, the Lions seem to fall away in the midfield.
In the ruck we should again have an major advantage in depth and talent at the hitouts as has been the case the past few weeks with Knobel, Stafford and Simmonds rotating against Dylan McLaren and fill-in Merret. The Lions are missing Charman and Keating. If Stafford doesn't come up and Keating comes in for the Lions then that will make things a bit tighter but we should have the edge.
FORWARDS: Up forward it's a battle between the 4th best attack with the Tigers averaging a score of 104 points per game against the 12th ranked defence of the Lions at 99. Richmond also averages the second most inside 50's. Browny (28 goals) and Richo (24) are second and third respectively on the League's goalscoring tally. Pettifer (13), Stafford (10) and Krakouer (10) are the next in line. Richo and Simmonds/Stafford will face Mal Michael and Leppitsch (one and three in spoils in the AFL) in important contests. I would expect if they don't have midfield tagging roles that one of Copeland or Brad Scott will have the tough task on Browny. The Lions will want to keep Chris Johnson not too close to his defensive goals as he likes to float off his opponent and be Brisbane's main rebounder. He's ranked second in the competition for rebounds out of defensive 50 (Joel is 6th btw for the Tiges). Along with Aker and Black, Chris Johnson would be the third Lion we should be targetting. If Johnson's opponent can get one out and drag him close to goal then that should restrict his influence although he's not the most accountable backman IMO. From a neutrals point of view Nathan Brown versus Chris Johnson would be worth the price of admission alone.
OVERALL: You'd expect the Lions will be up for this game after losing three straight home games and with their season on the line at 3-5. As with any match interstate you can't give the home team a start as their confidence and the voice of the hometown crowd will lift. We need to silence them by getting off to a good start. The battle of the midfield styles with go along way to deciding to this contest. If the Tigers are switched from the start in terms of intensity at the contest and can generate space by running through the lines to get their run and carry gameplan going then we should have too much reliable firepower up forward and pace through the midfield. However, if we play like we did last week for the first 2 1/2 quarters and move away from Wallace's style of play then our turnovers will kill us as, unlike the Pies, Brisbane has a star Centre Half-Forward and still enough class within its ranks to punish our skill errors.
THIS WEEK'S TEAMS:
RICHMOND
B: Chaffey, Gaspar, Graham
HB: Newman, Kellaway, Bowden
C: Tivendale, Coughlan, Deledio
HF: Campbell, Simmonds, Pettifer
F: N.Brown, Richardson, Krakouer
R: Knobel, Tuck, K.Johnson
Int: Stafford, Meyer, Tambling, Hyde
In: Stafford, Hyde
Out: Hall (suspended), Pattison (omitted)
BRISBANE
B: C.Johnson, Michael, Drummond
HB: Copeland, Leppitsch, B.Scott
C: Notting, Voss, Akermanis
HF: Sherman, J.Brown, McGrath
F: Merrett, Bradshaw, C.Scott
R: McLaren, Black, Lappin
Int: Adcock, Corrie, Macdonald, Selwood
