OER PREVIEW - ROUND 14 - RICHMOND vs SYDNEY at the M.C.G. (Home)
SUMMARY:
After four straight defeats the last being a 70-point hiding at the hands of the Crows in Melbourne at the Dome, the mid-season break could not have come fast enough to those at Punt Road. During the break the team flew up to the Whitsundays to sit down and figure out how to get back on track. This Saturday we will see how successful this pow-wow was as the Tigers face the in-form Sydney at the M.C.G. in a traditional afternoon clash. In a must win game for Richmond if we wish to remain in the top 8 we have made 3 changes with Hall, Hartigan and debutant rookie Will Thursfield coming in for ..Knobel (flu), Morrison and Jackson.
Our opponents the Swans after a poor start to the season and AFL endorsed criticism of their dour and "boring" style of play have been able to turn results their way to sit fifth on the Ladder winning six of their past seven matches albeit all except for one (against an undermanned Port Adelaide side) have been against bottom 8 sides. Sydney regain Jude Bolton and Fosdike.
[color]PAST ENCOUNTERS:[/color]
Overall: 99-74-1
In the 00's: 4-4
At the M.C.G.: 22-11
Last Time:
Round 22, 28.08.04. Home at the M.C.G.
Richmond 4.4 4.7 5.8 6.8-44
Sydney 3.2 6.7 10.10 16.12-108
Multiple Goalkickers: Richmond - Richardson 3; Sydney - N.Davis 5, O'Keefe 3, O'Loughlin 3, Hall 2.
Attendance: 29,777
KEY STATS AND MATCH-UPS:
The Swans play a predictably dull yet very effective style of footy whereby they like to strangle the opposition. Although Sydney has the lowest possession count in the league this is mainly due to them holding onto the ball trying to deny the opposition the footy. They work on the principle if the opposition don't have the ball then they can't score against us. The Swans will patiently wait and chip the ball around to find an opening then run hard and try to hit a leading forward whether it be Barry Hall (39 goals) or one of their many midsized leading forwards in O'Loughlin (26 goals), Nick Davis (13 goals) or O'Keefe (13 goals). They are a very even side across the park with not too many stars but Paul Roos has them very well drilled in the way he wants them to play and the team most weeks has the discipline to stick to the gameplan. They have a number of quick running players which enables them to hold up the opposition and flood back when they don't have the footy and then catch sides on the counterattack if there's a turnover with a fairly open forward line.
Knobel's absense due to the flu is a blow especially with Stafford struggling to comeback from injury (so much so he was initially dropped back to Coburg). This will me Simmonds will have to do the bulk of the ruck against Jolly, Ball and possibly Goodes. I would've rather Patto was brought in instead of less than 100% fit Stafford. With the forecast for wet and windy conditions the ball will spend most of the time on the deck so we just needed someone who can jump and provided a contest. Staff's ankle injury he suffered a month or so ago won't help him there.
As for midfield match-ups Tuck (23 poss)-Kirk (21) and Cogs (23)-Jude Bolton (22) should go head-to-head with Ablett (15) tagging Johnson (23) and Chaffey (14) tagging Paul Williams (18) who collected 25 possessions last week against the Pies. Tivs and Kenneley would be the most likely other match-up. Kirk and Bolton are the main ballwinners for the Swans and need to be shutdown or at least have their influence on the game nullified. Both are in the top 4 in the AFL in clearances and top 10 in winning uncontested footy. The latter an area the Tiges have been exposed in all year. Bolton is also in the top 10 for inside 50 while Kirk is top 5 in handballs, top 10 hardball gets and the number one tackler in the competition (another area we are poor in).
Defensive match-ups should go like Gas on Barry Hall, Hall on Goodes, Kellaway on Nick Davis, Hartigan or Newman on O'Keefe while rumour has it that Thursfield will get the job on O'Loughlin which is a highly risky ploy there by Terry if that happens but he must have faith in Will to do the job. Virtually all of the Swans forwards are lead-marking types so to stop them we need to apply pressure on the Sydney midfielders to they aren't allowed like the Crows were to run forward with ease and give lace-out passes to their leading forwards. We'll get murdered if that happens. Likewise the Swans ploy of flooding back will work perfectly for them if we turnover the footy with pathetic disposal. That's what I'm most worried about.
Although injuries shouldn't be used as an excuse, the lose of Browny has really hurt our forward structure as we've returned to our bad old habits of stop-start footy and being too Richo-centric. Too add to our woes Richo himself has been carrying a dodgy knee which has restricted his play closer to goal making it easier for opposition defenders to double and triple team him. It also hasn't helped that our disposal over the past few weeks has been not up to AFL standard.
To fix this we need more fun and flow in our game to bring our other forwards into play so we can kick more goals. Apart from the Eagles match our scoring has been well below the magical 16 goal tally Wallace set out at the start of the year as a key indicator. We won't win too many more games if we're only kicking 10 or 11 goals per match. That's back to the Frawley days. We also our midfielders to push forward to the 40m-50m mark to chip in with a few goals themselves. The likes of Tivs, Bowden and Pettifer can easily kick 50m. We need to start using this advantage and not 100% of the time try to pinpoint a forward closer to goal. Not only will we kick more goals but it'll stretch the opposition's defence and make us less predictable.
As for forward match-ups one of Leo Barry, Saddington or Craig Bolton will take Richo. The Swans will revert to their usual double teaming of the big fella by playing Barry or Bolton man-on-man on Richo while Saddington plays in front. Barry has been Sydney's number one rebounder (in the AFL's top 10 in fact) so the Swans may wish to keep him away from Richo so he feels more confident running off one of our other forwards. Simmonds with get Roberts-Thomson although now that Knobel is out and it's going to be wet we may only keep Richo up forward as our only tall and go with a small forward line. The Swans defenders last week found it very difficult when the Pies reverted to small forward line and almost pinched the game as a result. This would also free Simmonds to move into the ruck. The other smaller match-ups will most likely be Krakouer-Crouch, Pettifer-Dempster and Mathews-Cambo. These other forwards of ours need to run towards the opposite side that Richo leads to drag defenders with them.
OVERALL: Despite the Tiges averaging 40 more possessions and 6 more inside 50s per game than the Swans plus the Swans last in the League in total kicks and scoring on average only 83 points per game, if it were dry sunny conditions tomorrow Sydney would rightly go in as favourite on form and confidence. Our skills and decision making over the month haven't been up to scratch to pick the Tigers to win. However the predicted showers and cold and windy conditions should even up the skill level and bring the match back down to who wants the footy the most and put their bodies on the lines while keeping things simple and direct. Richmond has had 4 days in sunny warm Queensland to talk about how we can turn things around through improving and increasing our kick and tackling tally. Time now to turn it into practice on a cold and wet Melbourne midwinter's day. Otherwise it'll be another quiet September.
THIS WEEK'S TEAMS:
RICHMOND
B: Newman, Gaspar, Kellaway
HB: Bowden, R.Hall, Chaffey
C: Hartigan, Coughlan, Tivendale
HF: Pettifer, Simmonds, Deledio
F: Krakouer, Richardson, Campbell
R: Stafford, Tuck, Johnson
Int: Raines, Graham, Thursfield, Hyde
In: R.Hall, Hartigan, Thursfield
Out: Knobel (flu), Morrison, Jackson
SYDNEY
B: Dempster, Barry, C.Bolton
HB: Mathews, Roberts-Thomson, Kennelly
C: McVeigh, Ablett, Crouch
HF: O'Keefe, Goodes, J.Bolton
F: N.Davis, B.Hall, O'Loughlin
R: Jolly, Kirk, Williams
Int: Buchanan, Ball, Saddington, Fosdike
