Will lightning strike twice for Tigers and Dockers? The Opposition Analyst
The Age
July 24, 2015 Only seven weeks ago Richmond pulled off the upset of the season, beating the previously undefeated Fremantle at the hostile Subiaco Oval. The question on everyone's mind is: can Damien Hardwick's finals-bound team repeat the dose on Saturday at the MCG?
The Tigers took a distinct plan to Perth to combat and expose the Dockers' defensive mechanism, and on that night it worked wonderfully. They changed their ball movement to go slower through the midfield with more control - a change they have kept as a welcome addition to their gameplan. Crucially, they also used shorter kicks to honour the "hit-up" leads from their half-forwards across the middle of the ground.
Both tactics took advantage of Fremantle's "sagging" defensive mode, the Dockers typically allowing opponents to "have" these possessions and focus on intercepting the more common "long and deep" forward 50 entries.
Richmond were able to expose Fremantle's ability to get a half-back flanker (think Michael Johnson, and now Garrick Ibbottson) to let their opponent push higher up the ground, while they dropped back to create a "spare" defender and work with the other backmen to make the intercept and start the rebound. For the Dockers, this mechanism also relies on strong midfield pressure to deny their opposition time and space to make good decisions with the ball. Against Richmond the midfield was poor in that area.
Two weeks later Collingwood ventured west and they initially incorporated the short, hit-up leads as part of their ball movement. This time the Dockers were awake to the tactic and their half-backs defended such kicks in a more diligent manner.
That game was eventually decided, as most are, in the midfield, where eventually Freo were able to out-pressure Collingwood and force them into turnovers. I think we will see more of this style of game on Saturday.
Lyon and his coaching panel know they have a distinct advantage in certain key areas and, unlike round 10, will want to maximise these against Richmond. One is clearances, where Fremantle rank No.1 to Richmond's 15th, with a plus-six advantage.
At centre-square bounces Freo rank No.7 to the Tigers 15, but at around the ground stoppages this differential expands to Freo ranking first and Richmond 16th. These clearance numbers obviously start with Aaron Sandilands, but really are testament to the midfield brigade of David Mundy, Lochy Neale and Nat Fyfe, with able assistance from Michael Barlow, Stephen Hill and Nick Suban. Their battle with the Richmond midfield will be pivotal.
While both teams are reasonably low tackling teams - which may produce an open and flowing game on the spacious MCG - Fremantle has another advantage in the critical area of contested ball, where they rank No.3 in the league to Richmond's No.14. Lyon will be impressing upon his players the importance on winning both the "ground ball war" (as he calls it) and contested ball. These two statistics, along with a dominant stoppage display, will allow Fremantle to play the game in their front half and give them the best opportunity to score.
Hardwick will be looking to capitalise on the Tigers improved ball movement and ability to defend their inside 50 entries. The inclusion of Ben Griffiths would be a fillip for his forward structure set-up.
This is one area where Richmond has performed better than the Dockers, ranking No.6 for marks taken inside their forward 50 while Freo rank a lowly 12th. If the likes of Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin can win their share of midfield possession and use it well going forward, they might again expose the Fremantle defence, still without Johnson as well as Zac Dawson and Alex Silvagni.
Interestingly, neither team has kicked 100 points in the six rounds since they met, but both have been reasonably frugal in limiting the points against, apart from Fremantle's Launceston drubbing by Hawthorn. Indeed, the points against column is usually an accurate indicator, and at the moment Fremantle rank No.1 while Richmond are No.5 - corresponding with their ladder positions.
I'm not so sure lightning will strike twice.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/will-lightning-strike-twice-for-tigers-and-dockers-20150723-giiuis.html
