Will fixture cost Roos, Tigers a finals spot?Herald-Sun
October 30, 2015NORTH Melbourne, Adelaide and Richmond fans be afraid. Be very afraid.
Your clubs have been handed the three toughest fixtures of 2016, and if the season just gone is anything to go by, that is seriously bad news.
This time last year Champion Data’s ratings listed Geelong and Port Adelaide as the two most challenging 2015 schedules.
You probably don’t need reminding what happened to those teams — who finished third and fifth the year before.
Need more evidence the fixture matters? The two teams handed the easiest schedules for 2015 were the Western Bulldogs and West Coast.
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With teams evenly matched especially around the middle of the ladder, factors like injuries and the fixture play a big role in deciding who makes it to September.
Champion’s formula is simple, rating every team your side plays based on points for and against in the 2015 home-and-away rounds — Hawthorn’s tally of +904 is rated the hardest to play against and Carlton at -829 is the easiest.
Add up the for and against of all the Kangaroos’ opponents next year and you end up with a total of +1302, clearly the highest in the comp.
The figure is even more stark when you consider the Roos’ 2015 fixture was rated at -44 (ranked 10th). That’s a jump of 224 goals.
That’s on the back of double-up games against Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs.
The Crows come in second at +1038 — also a giant leap from -38 last year.
They have to play Fremantle, West Coast and the Roos twice — plus Geelong and Port Adelaide.
Richmond is third at +660, but Tiger fans can take some comfort from the fact they were handed the fifth-toughest draw in 2015 (+448) and still won 15 games.
Brent Harvey and the Kangaroos face a challenging fixture in 2016.
The predictions aren’t perfect. Going into last season a game against the Eagles or Dogs would have been considered a likely win.
But it tends to even itself out — the Tigers won tough matches against Hawthorn, Fremantle in Perth and the Swans in Sydney ... but also dropped games that would have been considered ‘easy’ against Melbourne and the Bulldogs.
So who are the teams ready to follow the Dogs and Eagles and jump up the ladder thanks to an easy draw in 2016?
St Kilda has the easiest fixture according to Champion Data, but a finals appearance in 2016 seems unlikely (sorry, Saints fans).
Essendon (second-easiest) could surprise, but the teams that will be licking their lips are Port Adelaide, Geelong and Gold Coast — all ranked in the bottom five for draw difficulty.
If recent history is any guide, they will certainly have the Roos, Crows and Tigers looking over their shoulders.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-fixture-2015-history-suggests-north-melbourne-richmond-in-danger-of-losing-finals-spots/news-story/42131ccbd4a4bcb456357b95ad32b3cb
