Relocation wouldn't work, for the simple fact that most of any Victorian teams players are from Victoria, thats why i didn't suggest it!
There are options, obviously QLD or NSW could have a 2nd team or NT and Tasmania could start a team.
If two Vic clubs merge, then that makes 15 teams so a new one could be sprouted up.
The Swans are a relocated club. South Melbourne, including its players and coach who were Victorians, packed up and flew north to Sydney at the end of the 1981 season. So it can work (eventually).
In any case whether Vic clubs merge or relocate, there still has to be 16 clubs in the competition as the tv rights deal requires 8 games a weekend. So if two Vic clubs merge, the AFL would have to put together a new interstate club from scratch like it did with the Bears. At least with relocation the "new" interstate club will retain some of its Melbourne based supporters as well as a bit of tradition while it finds its feet in a new city and starts to attract local support and more importantly members and corporate dollars.
The hard part is where?
Tassie despite being a traditional Aussie rules state doesn't have the size to support an AFL club as its footy population is split between Hobart and Launceston. York Park crowds when Hawthorn and St Kilda play down there are only around the 13,000 mark. Likewise Darwin is small.
NSW IMO will only be a one AFL team state at least for the foreseeable future. Outside the seaboard eastern suburbs of Sydney there is hardly any Aussie rules supporters. Rugby League dominates the ever-growing western suburbs
. Similarly Canberra isn't viable for AFL with the Raiders and Brumbies already there plus there only being a small population. I spent a couple of months in Canberra for work/study back in 1995
and its a Aussie rules ghost-town. Just look at the Manaka's crowds when the Roos play there.
Possibly the Gold Coast is next but not for another 5-10 years at the very least IMV. It's alot bigger place now than it was when the Bears were there and it has a fast growing population. I read somewhere its 500,000. Plus there are a plenty of ex-Vics living up there (waves at Julz
) and Southport footy club is one of the wealthiest clubs in the land due to pokie revenue.
This of course is just speculation. The new $700m tv rights deal will go to 2011 so the Doggies, Roos and Dees are probably safe for the meantime.