Here we come! / Can we make the top eight? [merged]

[one-eyed]

COMING HOME HARD

Richmond has the score on the board when it comes to mid-season revivals.

               BEFORE ROUND 7            AFTER ROUND 7    
             WIN  LOSS  PER CENT    WIN LOSS  PER CENT
2016        1       6        73%           1    N/A     101%
2015        3       4      103%         12     3        136%
2014        2       5        89%         10     5        116%
2013        4       3      108%         11     4        132%


Changes to top eight after Round 8

2015 (two in): Western Bulldogs (4-4), North Melbourne (4-4)

2014 (three in): Richmond (2-6), North Melbourne (4-4), Essendon (4-4)

2013 (one in): Carlton (4-4)*

2012 (two in): Geelong (4-4), North Melbourne (3-5)

2011 (two in): St Kilda (1-1-6), North Melbourne (4-4)

2010 (one in): Hawthorn (4-4)

*Included after Essendon’s ban



Richmond’s next six weeks

Fremantle, Subiaco

Essendon, MCG

North Melbourne, Blundstone Arena

Gold Coast, MCG

Bye

Brisbane Lions, MCG

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/richmond/richmonds-win-over-sydney-has-given-the-tigers-confidence-that-could-set-up-another-unlikely-finals-run/news-story/4f7392fd7b48370b17f5eabae9959853

[Diocletian]

Play the kids and let the chips fall wherever they may....doubt ladder position will have that much of an influence on Hurley's decision......as long as we can sell him the future by showing him we have still a solid core of stars, good kids coming through and a real intent to bring some quality in with him and we offer him the right deal....

Yep honestly getting pick 5 VS pick 10 shouldn't be such a big deal.

You reckon?

[Yeahright]

Yep honestly getting pick 5 VS pick 10 shouldn't be such a big deal.

You reckon?

I reckon there's a big difference between pick 5 vs 10. Especially when 5 could still be 5 maybe 6 whereas 10 will probably shift to like 12-13

[one-eyed]

WHAT THE?

One punter is back on board the Tigers bandwagon, betting $100 at $501 on Richmond to win the flag.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/footy-form/early-mark-punters-backing-richmond-essendon-in-round-9/news-story/5e513e25ffcede221886cb4045c43f95

 

[one-eyed]

Can your team make the top eight? We look at the race to September

JON ANDERSON
Herald Sun
May 19, 2016


JUST ask Fremantle supporters how an AFL draw can drastically change after eight rounds.

Home games penned in as wins against Gold Coast and Carlton suddenly become shattering losses as a new football reality takes hold.

The slide of the Dockers has made a trip west to face the purple haze not so much daunting, as the AFL’s new must-do trip.

And you want West Coast, grand finalists last season, to come to your place and play after a disastrous run of road losses in 2016.

Collingwood had top-four potential when the draw came out last October, but now seeing them as your next-up opponent doesn’t send your head spinning.

Richmond and Port Adelaide similarly were worrisome when the season began, but their fluctuating fortunes have changed the appraisal.

But as some fall, some rise.

GWS has arrived and home or away, Leon Cameron’s men are a fearsome challenge.

And the Kangaroos have seemingly taken that step from wannabes to contenders and confronting them, especially at Etihad Stadium, looms as a tougher task than it may have been before a goal was kicked in anger.

Now the Blues too are not the “bye” some referred to them as recently as March. You have to be on to beat Brendon Bolton’s reset charges.


HOW IS YOUR TEAM PLACED IN THE RUN HOME? (Finals contenders only)

Luck of the Draw   Teams

Difficult         North Melbourne
                  Sydney Swans
                  Collingwood
                  Carlton

Fair              Western Bulldogs
                  Port Adelaide
                  West Coast
                  Gold Coast
                  Melbourne
                  Richmond
                  Hawthorn

Good              GWS Giants
                  Adelaide
                  Geelong
                  St Kilda

So eight rounds in, pre-season prognostications have been turned on their head to a degree.

A “tough draw” is relative to form, and the passage to September may not be what it was.

For some what loomed as a cushy season is not that any more, indeed it may have got tougher. The opposite could also be true.

You should be happy if you backed Geelong, which has dropped just one game, and 6-2 GWS to make the top four, given they enjoy two of the friendliest runs home and are in better shape than most of their rivals in terms of depth.

The Cats have five games at Simonds Stadium, with seven up the highway at Etihad and the MCG and their interstate trips are to play Fremantle and Brisbane at the Gabba. Top four is almost a lock.

The Giants, $7.50 to win the flag despite never having played a final, play eight sides outside the eight and their interstate trips are against Gold Coast, Essendon, Brisbane and Richmond.

Much was been made of North Melbourne’s run, they had to be at worst 7-2 by Round 9 in most pre-season analysis.

They are 8-0, but needed to be, because their run home remains a tough one with nine games against teams currently in the eight, including two games against both Sydney and Hawthorn.

As far as premiership aspirants go, the Roos and Sydney have the hardest rows to hoe.

Fair to middling remain the task for the rest, including would-be top eight fillers, with more twists and turns sure to come as the resurgent Tigers and Pies get their seasons going.

In a month they could be flying, and as injuries come home to roost, the Blues could again be easybeats. Or not.

Recent history says changes to the top eight are limited to one, maybe two teams this far in to the season.

But as the first eight weeks have shown, form is fleeting and anything could happen.


THE ROAD TO SEPTEMBER (Finals contenders only)

NORTH MELBOURNE 8-0

RUN HOME: Carlton (Etihad), Sydney (SCG), Richmond (Blundstone), Geelong Cats (Etihad), Hawthorn (Etihad), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), BYE, West Coast (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (Etihad), Collingwood (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney (Hobart), GWS Giants (Etihad).

ANDO SAYS: Plays nine games against teams currently in the eight, including Sydney at the SCG, Adelaide at Adelaide Oval and West Coast in Perth.

GEELONG 7-1

RUN HOME: Collingwood (MCG), Carlton (Etihad), GWS Giants (Simonds), North Melbourne (Etihad), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), BYE, Sydney Swans (Simonds), Fremantle (Subiaco), Adelaide (Simonds), Western Bulldogs (Simonds), Essendon (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Melbourne (Simonds)

ANDO SAYS: Five games at Simonds Stadium, five at Etihad, two at the MCG to come and the two interstate trips are to Fremantle and Brisbane.

GWS GIANTS 6-2

RUN HOME: Western Bulldogs (Spotless), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Geelong Cats (Simonds), Sydney (Spotless), Essendon (Etihad), Carlton (Spotless), BYE, Collingwood (Etihad), Brisbane (Gabba), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Richmond (Canberra), Gold Coast (Metricon), West Coast (Spotless), Fremantle (Spotless), North Melbourne (Etihad)

ANDO SAYS: Play eight sides outside the eight and interstate trips include games against Gold Coast, Essendon, Brisbane and Richmond.

SYDNEY SWANS 6-2

RUN HOME: Hawthorn (MCG), North Melbourne (SCG), Gold Coast (Metricon), GWS Giants (Spotless), Melbourne (SCG), BYE, Western Bulldogs (SCG), Geelong (Simonds), Hawthorn (SCG), Carlton (SCG), Fremantle (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (SCG), St Kilda (Etihad), North Melbourne (Blundstone), Richmond (SCG)

ANDO SAYS: Has played only three in the top eight so it naturally gets harder. Seven games against top-eight teams including North twice, Geelong in Geelong and Hawthorn at the MCG.

WESTERN BULLDOGS 6-2

RUN HOME: GWS Giants (Spotless), Collingwood (MCG), West Coast (Etihad), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Geelong (Etihad), BYE, Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (Etihad), Gold Coast (Cairns), St Kilda (Etihad), Geelong (Simonds), North Melbourne (Etihad), Collingwood (Etihad), Essendon (Etihad), Fremantle (Subiaco)

ANDO SAYS: Played four from the top eight and gets Geelong, Sydney and GWS away on the run home, plus they play the Cats twice.

HAWTHORN 6-2

RUN HOME: Sydney (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (Etihad), North Melbourne (Etihad), Gold Coast (Aurora), BYE, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Sydney (SCG), Richmond (MCG), Carlton (Aurora), Melbourne (MCG), North Melbourne (MCG), West Coast Eagles (Subiaco), Collingwood (MCG)

ANDO SAYS: Has had the hardest early draw, so 6-2 is a good result. They do get North twice from here plus West Coast and Sydney away, but no Geelong or GWS.

WEST COAST 5-3

HOME RUN: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Gold Coast (Subiaco), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Adelaide (Subiaco), Brisbane (Gabba), BYE, Essendon (Etihad), North Melbourne (Subiaco), Carlton (Etihad), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (Subiaco), GWS Giants (Spotless), Hawthorn (Subiaco), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

ANDO SAYS: Has played only three of the top eight to date but they have all been away games, and they don’t travel well.

ADELAIDE 4-4

HOME RUN: Gold Coast (Metricon), GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Subiaco), BYE, North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (Etihad), Collingwood (Adelaide Oval), Geelong Cats (Simonds), Essendon (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval), Fremantle (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

ANDO SAYS: With Hawthorn had the hardest early draw, at least on paper, playing six of last year’s top eight plus Geelong (Freo and Richmond have made that easier). Run home attractive.

MELBOURNE 4-4

HOME RUN: Brisbane Lions (MCG), Port Adelaide (Alice Springs), Hawthorn (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney (SCG), BYE, Adelaide (MCG), Fremantle (Darwin), St Kilda (Etihad), West Coast (Subiaco), Gold Coast (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Carlton (MCG), Geelong (Simonds)

ANDO SAYS: Only had three finalists from last year so far and cop more on the way home, plus Geelong away. Five interstate trips to come.

PORT ADELAIDE 4-4

RUN HOME: West Coast Eagles (Adelaide Oval), Melbourne (Alice Springs), Collingwood (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval), Fremantle (Subiaco), BYE, Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (Adelaide Oval), North Melbourne (Etihad), GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane (Gabba), Sydney (SCG), Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Gold Coast (Metricon)

ANDO SAYS: Plays seven games in Adelaide. Away games include Brisbane, Gold Coast and Fremantle.

CARLTON 4-4

RUN HOME: North Melbourne (Etihad), Geelong (Etihad), Brisbane (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), BYE, GWS Giants (Spotless), Collingwood (MCG), Adelaide (MCG), West Coast (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Hawthorn (Aurora), St Kilda (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (MCG)

ANDO SAYS: Has had a challenging early draw so 4-4 is excellent. Plays Brisbane (twice), St Kilda (twice), Essendon and Melbourne but also plays seven top-eight sides.

COLLINGWOOD 3-5

RUN HOME: Geelong (MCG), Western Bulldogs (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), BYE, Fremantle (MCG), Carlton (MCG), GWS Giants (Spotless), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), North Melbourne (Etihad), West Coast (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Gold Coast (Etihad), Hawthorn (MCG)

ANDO SAYS: What looked a cushy early draw, one that should have seen them 6-2, turned into a nightmare. Still to play eight current top-eight teams but only travels twice.

GOLD COAST 3-5

RUN HOME: Adelaide (Metricon), West Coast (Subiaco), Sydney (Metricon), Richmond (MCG), BYE, Hawthorn (Aurora), St Kilda (Metricon), Brisbane (Metricon), Western Bulldogs (Cazaly), Fremantle (Metricon), Melbourne (MCG), GWS Giants (Metricon), Essendon (Etihad), Collingwood (Etihad), Port Adelaide (Metricon)

ANDO SAYS: Current form has made the Suns’ draw largely irrelevant.

ST KILDA 2-6

RUN HOME: Essendon (Etihad), Fremantle (Etihad), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Carlton (Etihad), BYE, Geelong (Etihad), Gold Coast (Metricon), Essendon (Etihad), Melbourne (Etihad), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), North Melbourne (Etihad), Carlton (MCG), Sydney (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (Etihad)

ANDO SAYS: Has a good run home with nine teams outside the eight.

RICHMOND 2-6

RUN HOME: Fremantle (Subiaco), Essendon (MCG), North Melbourne (Blundstone), Gold Coast (MCG), Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Essendon (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), GWS Giants (Canberra), Collingwood (MCG), Geelong (MCG), St Kilda (MCG), Sydney (SCG)

ANDO SAYS: Has to travel five times which is the downside.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/can-your-team-make-the-top-eight-we-look-at-the-race-to-september/news-story/54abfb1d1d790008d1014bcf2750c34f

[Jackstar 1960]

Reckon we can make it

[WilliamPowell]

I reckon we wont

and I'll go as far as to say that I reckon it that it's in our best interest if we don't....

Make the 8 and we again will fail to acknowledge and so something about our list problems

[Hard Roar Tiger]

I reckon we wont

and I'll go as far as to say that I reckon it that it's in our best interest if we don't....

Make the 8 and we again will fail to acknowledge and so something about our list problems

If they haven't achnowledged that after this start, seriously the whole club needs to be turned upside down

[big tone]

Like someone said the other day, I'm happy either way as long as the side we field is without the deadwood that isn't our future. We all know who they are, and they still can get a kick but they are not the future, but I'll name them again. Chaplin, Houli, Hunt, Grigg are the obvious ones.
Hampson is an interesting one, I'd like to see him till the end of the year and then reassess.
Play the kids and see how our cards fall.
Best case they show they are long term players and we may make the finals, the worst case we miss the finals but get a decent draft pick to add to our side for next year..
From the outside its a no brainer, but it is the RFC.

Either way, they need to bold with trades at the end of the year. Hard decisions need to be made. 
If Hurley is even considering leaving the Bombers, it needs to be to us. He is a free hit, all it will cost is money. We could still have a really good pick to do with what we want. (Trade or pick an elite kid in the draft)
Players like Vickery, Griff, BEllis, Astbury, Batchelor, Conca, all need to be up for trade.
Even McBean and Lennon need to be offered if we don't intend to play them. Not much point having them waste away in the VFL..
I'm hoping with all the mistakes that have been made for such a long period of time that someone will stand up and turn this club around. It can be done and it doesn't have to take 8 years, as long as we are what our club song says we are, and that "BOLD"

[TigerMonk]

I reckon we wont

and I'll go as far as to say that I reckon it that it's in our best interest if we don't....

Make the 8 and we again will fail to acknowledge and so something about our list problems

Your talking about a team who won many games in a row last season. Defeated many of the Top 8 sides or were just shy.
A team ravaged by injury this year will only give games to those who need a few games & the chance to show their own talent. Who could be the next Judd, Matthews, Cousins, Harvey or even a Rioli  l think we have a good list just some have dropped of & still think Newman is behind them 

[YellowandBlackBlood]

The list needs improving and that is an understatement. However, a good club will always think they should be continually improving their list.

I think our other problem is game plan. The players do not seem to know it as they hesitate every time they have the ball in hand. This may be improving but they still seem to have several thoughts in their mind when they get the ball. When you look at so called poor sides like Carlton and Essendon, the players already seem well drilled and know what to do immediately. To me that is a coaching problem and it is this hesitation that makes our players look worse than they are. When they don't hesitate the team looks so much better with more fluid ball movement.

Can we make the 8? Of course we can. Will we make the 8? I doubt it. The next 4 weeks will tell us which way we will go. We need to win a minimum of 3 games to have a reasonable chance. Our form suggests we will be lucky to win 2.

I just hope that when it is absolutely obvious we won't be making the final 8, we play as many of our kids as possible and drop the so called list cloggers to the magoos. We need to see what the next generation can offer us and see who can improve rapidly on the big stage.

[Stalin]

I reckon we wont

and I'll go as far as to say that I reckon it that it's in our best interest if we don't....

Make the 8 and we again will fail to acknowledge and so something about our list problems

What we will do

And what is in our best interst to do

Are not the same thing

My tanking advocating friend

[WilliamPowell]

I reckon we wont

and I'll go as far as to say that I reckon it that it's in our best interest if we don't....

Make the 8 and we again will fail to acknowledge and so something about our list problems

What we will do

And what is in our best interst to do

Are not the same thing

My tanking advocating friend

I am actually not a tanking advocate, never have been and i have not suggested we should tank.

But i do think that we have over rated our list. Especially at the end of last season

This season has again proved that when our best players are out injured or out of form we struggle, that means there a depth issues

[
Your talking about a team who won many games in a row last season. Defeated many of the Top 8 sides or were just shy.
A team ravaged by injury this year will only give games to those who need a few games & the chance to show their own talent. Who could be the next Judd, Matthews, Cousins, Harvey or even a Rioli  l think we have a good list just some have dropped of & still think Newman is behind them 

I am also talking about a side that has lost 3 elimination finals in a row.

A club that  has over rated its list

A club that traded for or signed mainly C/grade free agents the last 2 seasons

To be honest i have no idea how good our depth is because we refuse to play kids, rather we play the recycled guys or blokes that arent our future.

I agree with big tone play the kids see  how the cards fall.

But continuing down the path where we play the usual suspencts make finals and lose is not going to improve us, it will yet again hide the obvious deficiencies

Thats why i said i thought it was in our best interests  not make the 8

[Stalin]

 

 

[mat073]

We will miss finals but end up winning 10 - 11 games and end up in no mans land again. Bookmark it.

Its the Richmond way.  End up with a nice vanilla flavoured first round pick.