Dustin Martin is making a run to win the 2016 Brownlow Medal but Patrick Dangerfield likely too far aheadJAY CLARK
Herald Sun
July 19, 2016 RICHMOND superstar Dustin Martin needs a miracle to win this year’s Brownlow Medal, according to Champion Data.
Martin has surged into a $7 second favourite with TAB to win the prized medal on the back of a career-best 43 possession effort against Essendon on Saturday.
It is the fifth-straight week he has gathered more than 32 disposals.
Martin, 25, also overcame the death of a close friend last week, with the Richmond star kissing his black armband after booting one of his two goals.
But days after Carlton great Mark Maclure didn’t give the red-hot midfielder a single vote for his onball heroics against the Bombers, the AFL’s official stats gurus believe Martin has left his run too late to catch blazing $2 medal favourite Patrick Dangerfield.
After 17 rounds, Champion Data forecast Martin is well back in seventh spot on the Brownlow leaderboard with 16 votes, a whopping 12 votes behind Dangerfield (28).
They have got evergreen Hawk Sam Mitchell (21) in second place and Swan Daniel Hannebery (20) in third.
The stats boffins believe Mitchell, who is slated to play his 300th AFL game against Richmond on Sunday, will dominate the count for the Hawks.
Mitchell’s next-best teammate, Cyril Rioli, is on six votes.
Martin is vying to become the first Richmond player in more than four decades to win the Brownlow after Ian Stewart last triumphed in 1971.
Dangerfield firmed from $2.25 into $2 after another three-vote performance against Fremantle on Friday night.
But only four of the past 10 Brownlow winners have been favourite with TAB on the night.
Champion Data’s complex statistical formula takes into account the result of each match and expects Richmond’s underwhelming season to count against their superstar ball-winner.
They also factor in players’ polling history, and, like Maclure, Champion Data didn’t give Martin the top votes on Saturday.
The stats gurus gave captain Trent Cotchin three votes, Martin two and brilliant Bombers’ playmaker Zach Merrett one.
The Coaches Association gave Martin a perfect 10 votes to lift him to third place in their count, on 74, six votes behind Adelaide leader Rory Sloane, on 80. Dangerfield is second on 79.
AFL greats Wayne Carey, Matthew Richardson and Kane Cornes all said Martin deserved the top votes against the Bombers.
Martin has enjoyed a career-best season despite his father, Shane, being deported to New Zealand by authorities in the preseason due to character concerns.
“I thought Martin was brilliant,” Carey said.
“I’m not sure where Mark was coming from with that (no votes). Even his coach (Damien Hardwick) said after the game he (Martin) didn’t use the ball as well as he normally would, but that was the pressure coming from Essendon.
“Their pressure was extremely good.
“What he (Martin) does, like Dangerfield, is he explodes.
“And this is what attracts the eye, when you can win the ball from a contest and run and carry the footy and they both (Martin and Dangerfield) do that.” Richardson said Maclure was trying to be controversial.
“Dusty 22 contested possessions and 14 clearances deserves at least one vote, Sellers,” Richardson said.
Martin has moved into more of an inside midfield role since Round 6 but the increased onball workload has taken a toll, at times, on his kicking efficiency.
Of his 42 possessions at the weekend, 18 were deemed ineffective, by Champion Data.
Teammate Sam Lloyd said Martin’s performance was “unbelievable” and credited his increased commitment off the field for his hot streak.
“Me and him do a little bit extra during the week, a little bit of boxing and he drags me along sometimes when I don’t want to go.
“So it’s probably his professionalism that has stepped up more than ever. I have really seen him evolve the last three years and he has just taken it to a new level this year.”
Mitchell and Cotchin finished equal second to Jobe Watson in 2012 and could yet receive Watson’s medal if it is controversially stripped due to the Bombers’ drugs ban.
CHAMPION DATA’S BROWNLOW MEDAL LEADERBOARD1. Patrick Dangerfield (Gee) 28
2. Sam Mitchell (Haw) 21
3. Dan Hannebery (Syd) 19
4. Joel Selwood (Gee) 17
5. Matt Priddis (WC) 17
THE TOP TWO AT YOUR CLUB
Richmond1. Dustin Martin 16
2. Trent Cotchin 14
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