It often that there's two changes to the top 8 from year to year, one surprise packet and one side that takes a major fall.
Top 8 changes: Roos, Dees out; Dogs, Freo in.
Surprise packet: Dogs - not really a surprise but I wouldn't be surprised if they went from outside the top eight to top 4.
Major fall: Roos - quick fixes and giving up good draft picks eventually catches up with you. Also although I think the Swans will make the finals but will come back to the pack a bit without Jason Ball.
Here's my 2006 ladder prediction:1. St Kilda - Talented list although backline is suspect. Injuries hurt them this year in terms of getting their best 22 regularly on the park yet they still made the top 4 and will do so again.
2. Adelaide - Still reliant on its old guard so may drop away in a couple of years but should be able to repeat 2005.
3. West Coast - still young and we plenty of talent. Forward line is still a concern especially with Matera retiring when it comes to the finals but midfield strength will get them another top 4 spot.
4. Western Bulldogs - Finals footy for the Dogs with another year under the belt of their young midfielders. Old guard in West, Grant, Smith and Johnson still have another year or two in them. If Darcy can return to his old form straight after his reco then a top 4 spot isn't unrealistic. The big movers in 2006.
5. Geelong - Same old same old. Better than most but as they did nothing in trade they will need to extract further improvement out of their current group to challenge.
6. Sydney - Loss of Ball is a big loss and they only replaced him with Chambers who was a pseudo-ruckman from the Cats. They also had a dream run injury-wise which may not repeat. Will still make the finals but IMO will finish 5th-8th.
7. Port Adelaide - Had a poor start to 2005 due to heaps of injuries but was good enough to still snag a finals spot and smash the Roos at the Dome. Sneak a lower top 8 spot.
8. Fremantle - Would definitely make the finals if Connelly wasn't their coach. Connelly gone if they miss. Haddrill was a big loss from their defence in 2005.
9. Melbourne - Hot and cold side. Can look a premiership threat when on song then just fall out of form and not win a game for a month. Could finish anywhere from 5th to 13th. A low finish may be the end of Daniher.
10. Richmond - We'll improve but the tough draw in the first half of year will IMO see us remain where we are. If best 22 stay on the park we could surprise and make the finals but winning 3 out of our last 13 games shows we lack depth if we cop a few injuries. Look out 2007-8 for the mighty Tiges
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11. Collingwood - If Rocca, Tarrant, Richards and Buckley can stay on the park then they'll move up the ladder but they have an ordinary list who may not be on the same wavelength as their coach.
12. Kangaroos - A club with mediocre list which needs to go for quick fixes out of fear of going under if they have a bad year or two. Getting smashed in the finals at home against Port is a major body blow to confidence IMO.
13. Brisbane - On decline and heavily reliant on Jonathan Brown and its ageing premiership players.
14. Essendon - Gone for quick fixes in Camporeale and Heffernan. Another tough year for the Dons. Maybe Sheeds final year?!
15. Hawthorn - Have gone for all youth so lack experienced bodies. Will surprise against some and may start well in the first few rounds but will struggle to escape from the bottom 4 by round 22.
16. Carlton - Had a reasonable draft to start the rebuilding process but that won't help them for a few years to overcome their many many deficiences. Another piece of wood for the bluebaggers.
