The truth behind home ground advantage in the AFL (West Australian)

[one-eyed]

The truth behind home ground advantage in the AFL

The Forward Pocket
West Australian
20 June 2018

On Sunday, Richmond defied their recent record to beat a good team away from home.

Oh wait, no scratch that, it was at the MCG. The ‘home’ team was Geelong. Go figure.

So as it stands the Tigers are still no good on the road against good teams. Or against any teams really, given they’re 0-3 interstate this season.

That’s not to say it will be a problem for them in their hunt for back-to-back premierships this season given the AFL still seems to prioritise big MCG crowds over any notion of equality or fairness in the fixture, but it does raise an interesting point with regards to home ground advantage.

In a new book Footballistics - it was released this week, so do yourself a favour - ABC journalist James Coventry has teamed up with most of my favourite footy number crunchers on the internet and used data to unveil some of the AFL’s hidden truths.

They’re able to categorically answer some of the most longstanding debates in the game - like if the 2001 draft was the best in history, who are the most passionate fans, the existence of Victorian bias in Hall of Fame admission, and importantly, does playing at home actually help your chances of winning?

The short answer is yes.

They found the home team in any AFL game has a 58.3 per cent chance of getting the four points. That extends to 61.9 per cent if the home team is playing an opponent from interstate.

There are many reasons behind these numbers, which they drill down on in the book, but that’s the bare bones of it. And combined with their interstate record this season, it tells us that any team which wants to get past Richmond in September this year had better get them on the road, because fellow contenders like Sydney and West Coast can’t afford to give the Tigers any kind of head start, let alone a 61.9 per cent chance on the last day of the season.

And with things so tight at the top of the ladder, Richmond finishing third is a live proposition.

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/the-forward-pocket-the-truth-behind-home-ground-advantage-in-the-afl-ng-b88871237z

[Hard Roar Tiger]

Didn't we beat a top 8 side away may 13?

[crannyvegas]

I'm all for not winning a game interstate & going back to back & getting Tom Lynch.

The more melts the better.

[Eat_em_Alive]

I'm all for not winning a game interstate & going back to back & getting Tom Lynch.

The more melts the better.

How good would that be? 

[Slipper]

I wasted my time reading the full article.

Not sure what his point actually is.

[Tiger Khosh]

Why is it that when we lose outer state it’s because we can’t travel and not we just lost to a good team who had the home ground advantage. If we beat the eagles at crows at the G is it because they can’t travel? Fair enough if we were losing to the suns, lions and dockers of the world but fact is we lost to two top 8 teams and one team where if it wasn’t for injuries cutting down 8/10 of their best players would also be there.

[tdy]

Swans got about 20 more frees than the weagles the other week when they beat them at home. Some were plain wrong frees but umpires being influenced by the crowd is a big problem.

[taztiger4]

Swans got about 20 more frees than the weagles the other week when they beat them at home. Some were plain wrong frees but umpires being influenced by the crowd is a big problem.

umm no, 27 free kicks each !