The secret to Richmond's success: how the Tigers lay a trap that AFL rivals can't help falling intoBy James Coventry, Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson
ABC
Analysis
Thu 6 Sep 2018, 1:36pmShortly after Collingwood won the 2010 AFL premiership, the Magpies' then-coach Mick Malthouse made the startling revelation he had turned to ancient military tactics in devising the team's winning game plan.
"I looked at the Roman legion, which is in a box formation," said Malthouse when discussing the Magpies' full-ground press. "It's very hard to penetrate, and there's always someone to step up."
As a keen student of history, Malthouse might have known the Roman Army revised the strategy after suffering a devastating defeat at the hands of Hannibal.
The great Carthaginian military commander had lured the Romans into a reckless advance, before unleashing a devastating counterstrike.
On Thursday night, eight years after the Magpies' Grand Final victory — and more than 2,200 years after the Battle of Cannae — Richmond coach Damien Hardwick will be channelling the counterattacking spirit of Hannibal as he leads his side into the AFL finals.
Defence the best form of attackThe Tigers are the shortest-priced flag favourites in a decade, and were this week rated nearly a 50-50 chance of defending their crown by expert computer modelling.
Over the past two years they have refined one of the most ruthlessly efficient brands of counterattacking football the league has seen.
"If you take away [the opposition's] strengths, what are they going to do?" said Hardwick in Yellow and Black, a fly-on-the-wall recount of the club's 2017 premiership.
"They're gonna try to go for it, and eventually, they're going to lose."
From Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope fighting style, to Italian soccer's Catenaccio, the use of counterattacking tactics in sport has long been a source of fascination and debate.
Such strategies require an extraordinary strength of mind and purpose.
"It takes great discipline to play defence, but that's what we're doing," said Hardwick.
"If our stalking mentality is there, that's when we play our very best footy."
In other words, the Tigers are patient hunters. Their midfielders and forwards pressure the opposition ball carrier, and their defenders such as Alex Rance, Nick Vlastuin, and Dylan Grimes feast on the resulting turnovers.
They rarely go hungry.
Using turnovers as a weaponAn AFL side can win possession of the ball from one of three basic sources: clearances, kick-ins after behinds, or turnovers.
Although many pundits often focus on the former, it is the latter from which scoring is most often generated. In fact, about two-thirds of all points usually come from turnovers.
Richmond's game plan exploits this key fact of modern football.
The number of turnovers per AFL game has increased by 13 per cent over the past four seasons, from 126 per match in 2015 to an average of 143 this season.
Games involving the Tigers feature even more: 155 per game this season, up from 125 four years ago. Crucially, no side is better at forcing its rivals into mistakes whilst minimising its own.
On average, the Tigers give up the ball nine times fewer per match than their opponents.
"Our game is a turnover game," said Hardwick at Wednesday's pre-match media conference.
"We acknowledge that, and most sides know that, so the way we set up [against Hawthorn tonight] will certainly be turnover-based."
Live by the sword, die by the sword
Richmond games are now the most turnover heavy of any in the competition
Richmond League Average
2015 125 126
2016 133 134
2017 149 138
2018 155 143
There is a caveat.
The Tigers' proficiency at intercepting the ball has come at the expense of winning clearances, for which they are ranked dead last in the competition this season.
On average Richmond wins 4.8 fewer stoppage clearances than their opponents, which is the second-worst rate of any side since 2015. Hardwick claims this is partly due to over exuberance.
"The reality is we're giving away a lot of free kicks at stoppages," he said.
"We've just got to be a little bit more careful with our aggression around the ball, and that way the ball will start going our way."
However, the fact the Tigers regularly allow themselves to be outnumbered at stoppages seems to suggest they are largely content to lose the battle for first possession in favour of taking it back through turnovers.
No stop, all go
Richmond have the best turnover differentials since 2015, but at the expense of their ability to win ball at stoppages.
The plan personifiedRichmond's apparent abandonment of the stoppage game has been reflected in the changing role of its star player, Dustin Martin.
While the reigning Brownlow medallist has recorded fewer overall disposals this season (30 per game down to 26), this drop has been almost exclusively confined to his contested possessions (15 per game down to 12).
There has also been a sharp drop in his clearance numbers from general stoppages (three down to 1.9).
At most clubs, the leader board for clearances is similar for both general stoppages and centre bounces.
At Richmond, however, Martin has become something of a centre-bounce specialist.
He has won the same 3.4 centre clearances per game as last year, easily surpassing Trent Cotchin's second-best 2.2. In contrast, Martin ranks fifth at the Tigers for clearances from around-the-ground stoppages.
This shift has had little impact on Martin's value in attack.
He still delivers about six inside 50s, 1.5 goals, and a goal assist per game, which are all similar numbers to last year. But it has meant he has become something of an anomaly among the AFL's star midfielders in how little time he spends in his team's defensive 50.
Simply put, the Tigers have learned to harness their best player's biggest weapon.
Martin no longer wins as much contested ball, nor as many stoppage clearances, because the Tigers no longer prioritise those aspects of his game.
Since being at least partly freed from attending general stoppages — especially those in defence — he has become a much greater counterattacking threat.
Dustin Martin's changing role 2015 2016 2017 2018
Clearances from centre 36% 44% 53% 64%
Clearances from stoppages 64% 56% 47% 35%
Contested possession share 34% 41% 50% 46%
Inside 50s per game 4.3 5.1 6.0 6.0
Disposals per game 26.0 31.1 29.8 25.5
Shots at goal per game 1.9 1.0 3.1 2.9
Goals per game 1.0 0.4 1.5 1.4
Score launches per game 0.7 1.3 2.5 1.5
Goal assists per game 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0
What it takes to tame the TigersFour teams have defeated the Tigers this season and a handful have gone close.
The Adelaide Crows mostly beat them at their own style, while the West Coast Eagles slowed down the pace of the game and limited the overall number of turnovers.
"Most teams who play against us want to slow the game down, chip the ball around and take a lot of marks and try and probably take our game away from us," Tigers assistant coach Blake Caracella told the ABC.
"This year we have seen a lot of sides are going slower in attack so that they do have some cover behind the ball if they turn it over."
Road to the AFL grand finalOr choose teams in the ladder to see their odds of winning.
Greater Western Sydney and Port Adelaide targeted Richmond's weak point: dominating the clearances to the extent that it gave them a winning advantage.
In round three, Hawthorn nearly ran down Richmond in a rampaging last quarter, fighting back from 39 points down to fall just 13 points short.
The Hawks had nine more clearances, with Tom Mitchell accruing 12 on his own.
But in doing so they turned the ball over seven more times than the Tigers: the fuel that powers the yellow-and-black machine.
The Tigers are not invulnerable, but the Hawks will need to be smarter and more precise with their ball use if they are to turn the tables on them on Thursday night.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-figures-debate-merits-of-free-agency-after-tom-lynchs-likely-move-to-richmond/news-story/9c58fdef43988d9f88f3c1132d0bc010
