Run home: Who will make the eight?Glenn McFarlane and Al Paton
Herald Sun
25 June 2019, 6:00pmRichmond chief executive Brendon Gale says the Tigers’ injury-ravaged season has fast-tracked fresh faces and strengthened the team’s depth as it prepares to launch a second-half assault on the season.
Asked if the Tigers still felt they can be a major player in the finals, Gale told the Herald Sun: “That’s the way we are looking at it.”
Richmond’s bid to stay alive in the premiership race has received validation from Champion Data’s 2019 ladder predictions, as well as from finals regular Nick Dal Santo.
“They need credit for how they have performed so far. If they get players back they’re still in a pretty good position,” Dal Santo said.
“I think we all know their best is well and truly good enough … We’ve seen in recent seasons that all you need is a good month and anything can happen.”
Richmond has slipped to ninth on the ladder after consecutive losses to North Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide. But the Tigers expect to regain up to six first-choice players — including captain Trent Cotchin — for Sunday’s clash against St Kilda and the stats gurus rate Richmond a 66 per cent chance to play in September.
Champion Data’s predicted ladder has Richmond seventh after the home-and-away rounds — which would set up an away elimination final against Brisbane at the Gabba, where the Tigers haven’t lost since 2004.
Gale said the club’s extended injury run had a silver lining.
“We have had a largely settled side over the last few years, and there hasn’t been that ability to play (young players),” Gale said. “We’ve now had a good look at them and we’ve seen some of the guys have a real strong impact.”
“We will continue to have a good look at them, and it is very, very exciting.
“It has been a great growth opportunity for the entire club. We have a deeper list, we have got a few players coming back and we have found a couple of exciting players (in their absence).”
Dal Santo said injured trio Toby Nankervis, Kane Lambert and Jayden Short were underrated pieces of the Tiger puzzle and could play key roles in the run home.
“I’d have trust they can click fairly quickly,” he said. “They should get a lot of those guys back in the next fortnight or so and that’s plenty of time to prepare for finals.”
RICHMONDRound 15: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
Round 16: Gold Coast (Metricon)
Round 17: GWS Giants (MCG)
Round 18: Port Adelaide (MCG)
Round 19: Collingwood (MCG)
Round 20: Melbourne (MCG)
Round 21: Carlton (MCG)
Round 22: West Coast (MCG)
Round 23: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Draw difficulty: 12th hardest
We say: Wags noted the Tigers are back in familiar territory after slipping to ninth following their bye last week, but Richmond fans shouldn’t panic. Champion Data has the Tigers finishing seventh, which would mean an away elimination final against Brisbane at the Gabba — where Richmond hasn’t lost since 2004. To get there they must win the next two and improve their woeful percentage in the process, starting with a match against another Marvel Stadium tenant — those games haven't gone so well this season (think North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs), so they will need to be switched on.
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Champion Data gives Port Adelaide the eighth-best chance of playing finals (63 per cent), edging out Essendon (47 per cent).
Fremantle is currently eighth but will finish 10th if the projections play out over the next nine rounds.
There is some good news for Carlton fans in the probability numbers — the stats gurus expect the Blues to move above Gold Coast to avoid the wooden spoon, handing Adelaide pick 2 in the draft.
PREDICTED WEEK ONE FINALSGeelong v Adelaide
Collingwood v GWS Giants
West Coast v Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions v Richmond
Champion Data's finals chances with nine rounds to go.https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/run-home-champion-data-predicts-who-will-make-the-top-eight/news-story/0ff99bcf15d39d66943e55861c1e884d
