Richmond vs Brisbane @ the 'Gabba - 2nd Qualifying Final, 2019

[skiddymcghee]

Champion Data claims we would have won by only 3 points if both sides kicked as expected at goal.


The Gabba thriller that wasn't

Look away now, Lions fans.

Brisbane would already be ruing what might have been had it kicked straighter in the first half of Saturday night's 47-point qualifying final defeat to Richmond.

The Lions' 8.17 (65) total is the fifth-most inaccurate finals scoreline since Champion Data began including complete misses in 2002.

The Tigers' 18.4 (112), on the other hand, was the fifth-most accurate by the same measure.

Champion Data's 'expected score' metric, which takes into account the difficulty of each shot and predicts the outcome, has put that hollow feeling into even sharper focus.

Brisbane should have boasted a two-goal half-time lead (instead of being down by about that margin), been within eight points at the last break (38) and lost by only three points (47).

EXPECTED SCORES BY QUARTER

TIME     BRISBANE       RICHMOND
QT          31 (30)*         15 (18)*
HT          53 (34)           41 (45)
3QT        69 (50)           77 (88)
FT          94 (65)           97 (112)

* Actual score in brackets

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09-10/stats-files-the-tweaks-that-could-lead-the-pies-to-flag-redemption

What a wank...

[mat073]

Dockers should of won the last derby then with there 2.19

[Eat_em_Alive]

Didn't get to watch the match on game day.
Im up to the 3rd quarter this morning, amazing how flat the commentators are when the game hasn't gone they way they wanted.

[Rampsation]

Yep. They wanted a Brisbane win so they can pull themselves off over brissies rise and fagan and to stick the knife into us.

[Rampsation]

As forwhat the score coukd have bern If my aunty had balls she woulda been my uncle. We won and won easy.

[mightytiges]

Dockers should of won the last derby then with there 2.19

Lucky in the 1980 GF the Pies kicked 9.24-78 instead of 24.9-153 and we kicked 23.21-159 and not 21.23-149. We would have lost that flag by 4 points.

Bad kicking at goal is bad footy. Just as bad disposal through the midfield is. Most of the shots on goal Brisbane had in the first half were off the back of our poor dumb turnovers by hand  on transition which we usually nail. Once we fixed that up midway through the 2nd qtr we dominated general play for the rest of the match.