Richmond vs Geelong @ the M.C.G. - 2nd Preliminary Final, 2019

[one-eyed]

Wallace also said Geelong to win need to:
(i) target us in the first quarter and catch Richmond before they get their sea legs given they have played only one game in 25 days.
(ii) Dominate the clearances.

If Richmond sticks with Geelong for the first 45 mins like what happened in the 2017 QF then Richmond will win.

[one-eyed]

Why a Tigers-Pies grand final is not necessarily a certainty

Wayne Carey
The Age
19 Sep 2019

Since the pre-finals bye was introduced, the sample size on any advantage is obviously small. In 2016, both teams who had a week off before the preliminary final lost.

In 2017 that was reversed, while last year West Coast made the grand final after the week off before meeting Collingwood, who hadn't had the same luxury.

That makes it three-all so far. It'll be really interesting to see how that unfolds over a longer period.

For Geelong, riding the momentum of last week's victory and backing up seven days later could be crucial given the troubles they've often had in first quarters.

Catch Richmond a tad sluggish early on and they can get going and get their confidence up, much like they did in their semi-final against the Eagles.

Of course, starting well doesn't always mean winning. Last year's grand final is a case in point. But for the most part, an early lead in finals is incredibly hard to overturn.

Tom Hawkins will certainly leave a big hole in the Cats' forward-line, and while there's no doubt they are clearly a better team with him in it, I can't help but think there might be a silver lining to his absence.

The Tigers are incredibly well-drilled in defence. We know how well the likes of Dylan Grimes, David Astbury and Nick Vlastuin can read the play and intercept the footy.

In the past they would have always planned around Hawkins and supporting whoever happened to be playing on him.

But without Hawkins there could be a level of unpredictability about the Cats if they make the right decisions and use the ball well.

That decision-making is the key.

They've still got the talent, whether it be Esava Ratugolea, Harry Taylor heading forward or Patrick Dangerfield spending more time one-out inside 50.

While Hawkins would have commanded a fair amount of the supply simply by his presence, he would have in turn been more predictable to the Tigers. Now that predictability is gone.

It's also worth noting, last week, albeit with Hawkins, the Cats played smart enough footy to keep Jeremy McGovern to just one intercept mark. They also exposed Tom Barrass.

The big question is, can they reproduce that more daring play when they're faced with the Tigers' trademark forward pressure?

It looms as a fascinating battle.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/why-a-tigers-pies-grand-final-is-not-necessarily-a-certainty-20190919-p52szi.html

[eliminator]

It appears from the latest forecast it will remain fine on Friday night.

[pmac21]

Good night for 2 big key forwards

[one-eyed]

Cats brace for fast-starting Tigers

Steve Larkin
AAP
September 20, 2019

GEELONG is bracing to withstand a Richmond firestorm in the opening quarter of tonight’s preliminary final at the MCG.

The Tigers are the best performed starters in the competition, winning 16 first quarters in their 23 games this season, while the Cats have been vulnerable in opening terms in finals in past year.

“They’re a very fast-starting team,” Geelong swingman Mark Blicavs said yesterday.

“They get out after it and this year against us they started really well that first quarter and the previous defeats we have had against them last year, the same again.

“They’ll be up for it. They will be fresh and ready to go.

“And it’s how we adjust and adapt to their pressure and try and bring our own.”

https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/sport/afl/afl-finals-2019-geelong-cats-brace-for-faststarting-richmond-tigers/news-story/e84b3b7bb0f8431a64efad621b1c7b54

[one-eyed]

Burning questions: Richmond v Geelong preliminary final

Jon Pierik
The Age
20 September 2019

There are no bigger names than Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield but could Tom Hawkins' absence derail Geelong's hopes? Jon Pierik poses the key questions.

How will the Cats handle not having Tom Hawkins?

This shapes as one of the most intriguing questions of the night. Hawkins has missed just six of Geelong's past 110 games - four of those because of suspension. He has also played in 22 of the Cats' past 23 finals and leads the club in goal-kicking this year (56). The star forward had a quiet night against Collingwood in week one of the finals but was instrumental in the 20-point win over the West Coast Eagles, booting four goals.

Coach Chris Scott may have vowed after the loss to the Magpies that the Cats wouldn't change their style but they played on 19.4 per cent of the time against the Eagles - compared to 10.8 per cent a week earlier. They also lifted in terms of scores per inside 50 and goals per inside 50 where Hawkins played a key role. That the Cats played on more meant there were more long kicks inside 50 and that's where they will now need Esava Ratugolea to have an impact. He has only 15 goals in 19 matches but his role in bringing the ball to ground will be important, allowing Gary Ablett (33 goals), Gryan Miers (26) and Luke Dahlhaus (14) to swoop. Patrick Dangerfield (26), who could go to full-forward, and Tim Kelly (21) will also need to have an effect. Defender Harry Taylor is another option to send forward.

Where does Mark Blicavs line up?

The athletic Cat has made a name for himself in defence but has been used in two largely unfamiliar roles through the finals. Scott was widely criticised for using Blicavs in the ruck against Brodie Grundy in week one where he had little to no impact, but Blicavs rebounded against the Eagles in a new role on the wing. He spent 96 per cent of game time there against the Eagles, having been used there for only four minutes through the rest of the season.

With no Hawkins, is Blicavs used as a marking option inside attacking 50, or does he remain on a wing pushing back into defence in a bid to stymie the Tigers' rebound from half-back? Or does he have a key role in defence, perhaps going to another athletic forward in Tom Lynch? Wherever he is, Blicavs needs to have an influence.

Will the crowd be a factor?

Potentially. Dangerfield made it clear after losing to Richmond in the 2017 qualifying final that facing the Tigers at the MCG was like being on the road interstate. The Tigers faithful are a potent force these days. They again head to the colosseum where their side is 33-3 in the past two-and-a-half years, sniffing another flag. It was a poor turnout by Cats supporters two years ago. They must show up this time. But there is more to this contest than supporter issues. The Cats stormed to a 67-point win when the teams last met, in round 12, the Tigers managing only five goals at a time when injuries had began to hit. To put that result in perspective, the Tigers had seven changes from that side come their win over Brisbane in week one of the finals. Richmond had prevailed in their three previous contests against the Cats, enjoying an average of +10.7 advantage in inside 50s, +11.3 in tackles, +3.3 in contested marks and +8 in intercept marks.

How will the Cats handle Dusty?

Dustin Martin was at his brilliant best against the Lions at the Gabba, booting a career-high six goals from only 14 touches. It may have been a season-low in terms of disposals but it's what you do when you have the ball that counts. He will spend time up forward against the Cats but the champion onballer will be expected to get busy in the midfield where his ability to create opportunities in the forward half ranks among the league's best. Expect tagger Cam Guthrie to go to Martin, having performed well on him before. Guthrie missed the week-one loss to Collingwood because of injury but his presence was significant against the Eagles, limiting the impact of Dom Sheed while enjoying more than 30 touches of his own for the first time in three years.

What's on the line for Dangerfield?

Plenty, for a man who will be 30 early in the 2020 season. The Cats need a fast start and to do that you would think Dangerfield will have to be busy. The champion midfielder has a 0-3 record in preliminary finals, having lost in 2012 as a Crow and in 2016 and 2017 at Geelong. He doesn't expect to be tagged but should he get going he could force the Tigers' hand - a tactic they don't like adopting.

Prediction?

Richmond by 11 points

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/burning-questions-richmond-v-geelong-preliminary-final-20190918-p52seu.html

[one-eyed]

Stats back Cats over Tigers

Andrew Faulkner
The Australian
September 20, 2019

Richmond will run out for their preliminary final against Geelong exactly 100 days since they last tasted defeat.

Not since June 13, in round 13, when they were beaten by the Crows at Adelaide Oval, have Richmond been on the wrong end of the scoreline.

After 10 wins in a row the Tigers are strongly favoured to beat Geelong and advance to their second grand final in three years.

But making a case for the Cats at the MCG is as simple as one, two, three.

One, the Cats beat the Tigers by 67 points in their most recent meeting, in Round 12.

Two, while they’ve come back to the pack since the bye, the Cats have been the best side in the competition for much of the year.

And three, Geelong’s key numbers are better than Richmond’s.

Before the finals began, The Australian assessed the eight contenders according to their kicking efficiency, contested possessions and tackles rankings.

Geelong were No 1, Richmond were No 8. The teams numbered five through seven have since been eliminated from the flag race.

The Giants are No 3 and Collingwood are No 4.

History says the side that wins all three stat lines wins their final.

And Geelong are the only side that have won all three categories in a game so far this finals series, against West Coast last week.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/tigers-have-momentum-in-their-favour-but-stats-suggest-cats/news-story/195fcb932ecfd915e1717d8a7e066bd4

[georgies31]

Need to start of well out of the blocks we were to sluggish against lions.Solid 4qtr effort needed.Bring the pressure and tackling all over the park and use our speed and run and carry breake the game open as cats will look to slow it down.Got to be better in clearances and contested footy.

[Gracie]

People still have not worked out Richmond does not operate on Stats well none except the final score.

[one-eyed]

Barrett in his 'Sliding Doors' column:

Richmond

IF ... you go back to this night last year ...

THEN ... you'll remember a big American destroyed the Tigers in a prelim final. The memories of that unexpected loss still burn deep for everyone associated with Richmond. Tigers couldn't bomb again, could they?

Geelong

IF ... the 2019 finals series has been lacklustre to this point ...

THEN ... thankfully Chris Scott has livened things up in media space. Have enjoyed his offerings, particularly the mind games this week targeting the vulnerability of the Tigers. But he now needs his players to back him up, something they didn't do in week one of the finals.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09-20/sliding-doors-preliminary-finals

[Chuck17]

Wish there was an ignore button for any posts quoting this tosser

[Assange Tiger 😎]

Not the nicest thing to say about a mod, Chucky. Your mum spanked you for less as a child.

Gee I'm keen for tonight boys.

Prediction = Short, BEllis & Soldo to play blinders........

[one-eyed]

No late changes. Teams as selected.

Soldo starting as first ruck.


FINAL INTERCHANGES

Richmond: Toby Nankervis, Shai Bolton, Jack Graham, Liam Baker

Geelong: Zach Tuohy, Brandan Parfitt, Quinton Narkle, Gryan Miers

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09-20/final-teams-richmond-v-geelong

[mightytiges]

Need our mids to have strong games. Hard in the contest and at the footy from the start, Tiges  .

[mightytiges]

The upper tier where BT was looks all yellow and black.