AFL grand final 2019 preview: Tigers and Giants reach the big danceRonny Lerner
The Age
22 September 2019After six months of gruelling competition, the wheat has been separated from the chaff and we are down to the final two teams. The 2019 grand final is upon us and it will be Richmond taking on Greater Western Sydney for the AFL’s ultimate prize.
And it’s fair to say that this match-up is a bit of a surprise. An all-Victorian premiership decider between two of the competition’s fiercest rivals in Richmond and Collingwood was the hot favourite heading into the preliminary final weekend, but the Giants had other ideas.
To fly down to Melbourne and defeat the Magpies without the suspended Toby Greene and sick Lachie Whitfield (appendicitis), as well as the injured Stephen Coniglio, Callan Ward, Brett Deledio and Jon Patton, in front of 77,828 screaming Collingwood supporters was a truly incredible achievement and comfortably the biggest win in the club’s eight-year history.
In fact, it was probably their 2017 preliminary final against Richmond under similar circumstances that prepared them for Saturday’s encounter with the Magpies.
There’s no doubt league headquarters would have been barracking hard for a Richmond-Collingwood grand final as well, but ironically their "baby" was the team that got in the way of that dream coming to fruition.
HISTORY LESSONRichmond won their first five meetings with GWS by an average margin of 56 points, but since then the Giants have held sway, winning four of their last seven encounters.
They met twice during the 2019 home-and-away season with GWS winning the first of those matches by 49 points at Giants Stadium, and Richmond taking the honours the second time round by 27 points at a wet MCG in round 17.
It’s hard to know how much both teams will look into their respective defeats in those meetings. In round three, Richmond were missing Jack Riewoldt, Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli, Josh Caddy, Shai Bolton, Ivan Soldo and Liam Baker while in the return bout, GWS didn’t have Josh Kelly, Jeremy Finlayson, Matt De Boer, Shane Mumford, Aidan Corr or Lachie Keeffe at their disposal. All of those players featured in the preliminary finals.
But the Giants would probably take more from their defeat given Coniglio hurt his knee in the opening minutes and despite that huge blow, and trailing by 26 points at quarter-time, they only got outscored by a point in the final three terms.
X-FACTORFrom a Richmond perspective it’s hard to go past the superstar that is Dustin Martin. Already in this finals series he has shown how versatile and damaging he can be.
In the qualifying final against the Brisbane Lions he spent a large portion of the game in attack and ended up being the difference, kicking six goals and becoming the first Tiger to kick that many majors in a final since Kevin Bartlett (seven) and David Cloke (six) in the 1980 grand final.
Then on Friday night against Geelong, after appearing to cop a corked thigh/knee early, he shook off that knock to have an impact up forward (two goals) but also generate drive from the midfield, too.
As for the Giants, they will welcome back Greene with open arms because he could quite literally drag his side to a maiden premiership. Like Martin, he is such a hard match-up, as he’s already shown in his first two finals, and has the uncanny ability of creating something out of nothing.
TACTICSThere’s no question that the Giants are at their best when they ramp up the physicality and aggression. Not only is their team full of exquisitely talented players, but it’s also chock-full of grunt, which is perfect for finals footy, as has been proven again this year.
But the Tigers are no shrinking violets themselves, and much of their success is built on their attack on the man with the ball. During the home-and-away season, Richmond were ranked No.1 for tackle differentials, while GWS were equal eighth.
When Richmond get a full head of steam going, as they’ve shown against the Lions and Cats this September, they’re almost impossible to stop, especially with their damaging handball game, which demands the ball surges forward as quickly as possible at all costs.
The Tigers are arguably the most efficient and well-drilled team in the AFL, but even still, given GWS are ranked first and second for uncontested and contested possessions respectively, compared to Richmond who are 12th and 16th, those are definitely areas the Giants will try to exploit.
PREDICTIONThe Giants have been fantastic in this finals series so far, winning three games, including two on the road, to finally reach their first grand final after three consecutive failures in the finals. Becoming just the third team ever to reach the premiership decider from sixth place on the ladder or lower is no mean feat either.
But this will be their third consecutive trip interstate, while the Tigers have had to leave Melbourne once since round 16. Richmond have been tested by the Lions and Cats in the first halves of their respective finals, but both times they’ve responded like a champion team to extend their winning streak to 11 matches.
Richmond have now won 34 of their last 37 games at the MCG and while the Giants won’t go down without a fight, the Tigers should be too good and draw level with Melbourne on 12 premierships.
Richmond by 25 points.https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-grand-final-2019-preview-tigers-and-giants-reach-the-big-dance-20190921-p52tke.html
