Caronavirus - COVID 19

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1571 new cases today. Reff=1.06 (lowest of this outbreak).  705 in hospital (91% unvaccinated). 146 in ICU (92 on ventilators). 13 deaths.
         Mitchell Shire to come out of lockdown.
         Vic has reached 60.9% double dosed vaccinated.

NSW - 444 new cases. Reff=0.76. 716 in hospital. 150 in ICU (76 on ventilators). 4 deaths.   

ACT - 51 new cases. 13 in isolation. At least 22 out in the community during their infectious period. 16 in hospital. 8 in ICU (5 on ventilator).


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 51.4%
16+:  63.3%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   7 days - Oct 20
12+ 90%: 16 days - Oct 29

Double dose:
16+ 70%: 10 days - Oct 23
16+ 80%: 20 days - Nov 2
16+ 90%: 28 days - Nov 10

12+ 70%: 14 days - Oct 27
12+ 80%: 24 days - Nov 7
12+ 90%: 33 days - Nov 15

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[Andyy]

Modeling indicates we are 2 weeks ahead of schedule with peak expected end of October and second peak likely when things 'open up'.

We decanted a 3rd department for C19 patients this week with plans for a 4th on Monday.

Total hospitalisations expected to peak at about 2500, approximately 25% worse than previously predicted.

Will be an interesting few months indeed.

[one-eyed]

VIC - 2297 new cases today.  706 in hospital. 147 in ICU (100 on ventilators). 11 deaths including a man in his 50s.

            90% of hospitalisations are unvaccinated.
            98% of ICU patients are unvaccinated.

            Case numbers are following the Burnet modelling. Hopefully with the falling Reff, the case trend is at its peak.

            Yellow line Reff=1.02 (lowest of this outbreak).
           

NSW - 406 new cases. 711 in hospital. 143 in ICU (75 on ventilators). 6 deaths.   

           Red line Reff=0.77.
           

ACT - 46 new cases. 30 linked. 16 unlinked. 18 in isolation. At least 16 out in the community during their infectious period. 16 in hospital. 6 in ICU (5 on ventilator). 1 death.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 52.3%
16+:  64.4%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   6 days - Oct 20
12+ 90%: 16 days - Oct 30

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   8 days - Oct 22
16+ 80%: 19 days - Nov 2
16+ 90%: 44 days - Nov 27 (?)

12+ 70%: 12 days - Oct 26
12+ 80%: 26 days - Nov 9
12+ 90%: 54 days - Dec 7 (?)

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 2197 new cases today. Reff=1.04. 695 in hospital. 157 in ICU (101 on ventilators). 6 deaths including a woman in her 50s.

           - 67% of todays cases were completely unvaccinated.
           - 75% of the people in hospital are completely unvaccinated.
           - 87% of those in ICU are completely unvaccinated.

           - 12% of todays cases fully vaccinated
           - 10% in hospital fully vaccinated
           -   2% in ICU fully vaccinated

NSW - 399 new cases. 677 in hospital. 145 in ICU (77 on ventilators). 4 deaths.   

ACT - 35 new cases. 16 in hospital. 8 in ICU (? on ventilator). 1 death.

TAS - southern Tasmania to go into a 3-day lockdown after a hotel quarantine breach.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 53.2%
16+:  66.3%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   6 days - Oct 21
12+ 90%: 16 days - Oct 31

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   7 days - Oct 22
16+ 80%: 17 days - Nov 1
16+ 90%: 42 days - Nov 26

12+ 70%: 11 days - Oct 26
12+ 80%: 24 days - Nov 8
12+ 90%: 52 days - Dec 6

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[WilliamPowell]

Have to say today's presser where they announced the border changes with NSW was a train wreck

Minister Foley had a shocker

Understand what they are trying to do = sticking to and following the national cabinet opening up plan but announcing it when VIC still has a 15km travel limit in metro Melb is well just plan stupid, idiotic.

[1965]

Have to say today's presser where they announced the border changes with NSW was a train wreck

Minister Foley had a shocker

Understand what they are trying to do = sticking to and following the national cabinet opening up plan but announcing it when VIC still has a 15km travel limit in metro Melb is well just plan stupid, idiotic.

Dictator Dan is just getting rid of any potential rivals for his job.

[one-eyed]

Have to say today's presser where they announced the border changes with NSW was a train wreck

Minister Foley had a shocker

Understand what they are trying to do = sticking to and following the national cabinet opening up plan but announcing it when VIC still has a 15km travel limit in metro Melb is well just plan stupid, idiotic.

Yeah, NSW visitors have to follow Victoria's travel restrictions for the next two weeks. Remain within 15km of their accommodation for the following week (until ~Oct 22), then within 25km the week after (until ~Oct 31), before there's no intrastate restrictions when Victoria is 80+% fully vaxxed.

Seemed to be the day for confusing announcements.

The new NSW premier announced he was opening international borders to international arrivals when he doesn't have any authority to do so. Morrison had to hold a presser to correct him. So far the plan is only for Aussies returning.

Word is each state and the Feds didn't know what the other was going to announce today .

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1993 new cases today. Reff=1.06. 798 in hospital. 163 in ICU (106 on ventilators). 7 deaths including a 15 year old girl.

             - 89.2% of hospitalisations not fully vaccinated
             - 95.9% of ICU patients not fully vaccinated

NSW - 319 new cases. 652 in hospital. 138 in ICU (73 on ventilators). 2 deaths.   

ACT - 20 new cases. 14 linked. 6 unlinked. 15 in hospital. 10 in ICU (? on ventilators).

TAS - 0 new cases (fingers crossed).

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 54.1%
16+:  66.3%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   5 days - Oct 21
12+ 90%: 15 days - Oct 31

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   6 days - Oct 22
16+ 80%: 15 days - Oct 31
16+ 90%: 42 days - Nov 27

12+ 70%:   9 days - Oct 25
12+ 80%: 22 days - Nov 7
12+ 90%: 52 days - Dec 7

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1838 new cases today. Reff=1.13. 777 in hospital. 151 in ICU (94 on ventilators). 7 deaths.

             - 90% of hospitalisations not fully vaccinated
             - 97% of ICU patients not fully vaccinated
             - One third of cases are now in the south-east suburbs.
             - From 11:59pm Thursday (effectively Friday Oct 22), the lockdown will lift in Victoria.

NSW - 301 new cases. 205 linked. 96 unlinked. Reff=0.75. 619 in hospital. 137 in ICU (71 on ventilators). 10 deaths.   
          NSW has reached 80% double dosed for 16+ year olds.

ACT - 33 new cases. 16 in hospital. 9 in ICU.

TAS - N/A.

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 54.9%
16+:  67.2%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   4 days - Oct 21
12+ 90%: 15 days - Nov 1

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   4 days - Oct 21
16+ 80%: 14 days - Oct 31
16+ 90%: 40 days - Nov 26

12+ 70%:   8 days - Oct 25
12+ 80%: 18 days - Nov 4
12+ 90%: 51 days - Dec 7

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

* Victoria’s lockdown and curfew to end at 11:59 pm on October 21.

   - Up to 10 visitors at home per day (highly recommended that only fully vaccinated permitted for 12+ year olds).
   - Up to 15 people can gather outdoors (20 in regional Victoria)
   - Pubs, cafes and restaurants in Melbourne can open to 20 fully vaccinated customers inside, and 50 fully vaccinated outside (30 and 100 in regional Victoria)
   - No travel limit within metropolitan Melbourne
   - Regional travel restrictions remain in place

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-17/victoria-restrictions-easing-lockdown-lifts-/100545682


https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1449529764188807173

[one-eyed]

Updated Burnet institute modelling shows Melbourne's COVID-19 outbreak estimated to peak between 15-27 Oct, lower hospitalisation and ICU rates due to vaccination rates.



High vaccination levels have enabled the earlier easing of some restrictions and an increase in numbers of visitors to homes, indoor and outdoor hospitality and numbers at public gatherings.

Burnet’s updated modelling predicts cases will now plateau around their current levels before rising, as restrictions are eased, to a daily peak of close to 4000 new cases per day in mid-December. However, hospitalisation rates are now lower, the length of stay is also less.

The modelling shows Victoria’s pace and high levels of vaccination has almost-halved the projected number of people expected to die from COVID-19 before the end of the year.

The modelling projects 1212 deaths between July and December 2021 - down from the 2202 projected on 18 September.

The chances of overwhelming the hospital system have dropped from 63 per cent to just 23 per cent.



https://burnet.edu.au/news/1529
https://burnet.edu.au/system/asset/file/4973/burnet_institute_victoria_roadmap_modelling_MEDIA_17Oct2021.pdf

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1903 new cases today. Reff=1.20. 851 in hospital. 155 in ICU (103 on ventilators). 7 deaths including a man in his 50s.

NSW - 265 new cases. 71 linked. 194 unlinked. Reff=0.73. 606 in hospital. 132 in ICU (71 on ventilators). 5 deaths.   

ACT - 17 new cases. 11 linked. 6 unlinked. 17 in hospital. 9 in ICU.

TAS - 0 new cases. So the lockdown in southern Tas will be lifted.

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 55.5%
16+:  67.9%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   4 days - Oct 22
12+ 90%: 15 days - Nov 2

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   3 days - Oct 21
16+ 80%: 13 days - Oct 31
16+ 90%: 40 days - Nov 27

12+ 70%:   7 days - Oct 25
12+ 80%: 17 days - Nov 4
12+ 90%: 51 days - Dec 8

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

Today we’re releasing a plan for Queensland borders.

Travel restrictions will ease when 70% and 80% of eligible Queenslanders are fully vaccinated.


https://twitter.com/AnnastaciaMP/status/1449931550053715973

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1749 new cases today. Reff=1.09. 784 in hospital. 149 in ICU (100 on ventilators). 11 deaths.

         - Hospitals: 88% not fully vaccinated
         - ICU:         96% not fully vaccinated

NSW - 273 new cases. 103 linked. 170 unlinked. Reff=0.71. 583 in hospital. 128 in ICU (69 on ventilators). 4 deaths.   

ACT - 24 new cases. 21 linked. 3 unlinked. 18 in hospital. 10 in ICU.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 55.9%
16+:  68.3%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   4 days - Oct 23
12+ 90%: 15 days - Nov 3

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   3 days - Oct 22
16+ 80%: 12 days - Oct 31
16+ 90%: 38 days - Nov 26

12+ 70%:   6 days - Oct 25
12+ 80%: 16 days - Nov 4
12+ 90%: 51 days - Dec 9

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1841 new cases today. Reff=1.02. 786 in hospital. 147 in ICU (97 on ventilators). 12 deaths including a woman in her 50s.

         - Hospitals: 89% not fully vaccinated
         - ICU:         96% not fully vaccinated

NSW - 283 new cases. Reff=0.72. 552 in hospital. 124 in ICU (66 on ventilators). 7 deaths.   

ACT - 24 new cases. 20 in hospital. 8 in ICU.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 56.7%
16+:  69.2%

Victorian vaccination projections (at the current rate):

First dose:
16+ 90%:   3 days - Oct 23
12+ 90%: 15 days - Nov 4

Double dose:
16+ 70%:   2 days - Oct 22
16+ 80%: 11 days - Oct 31
16+ 90%: 36 days - Nov 25

12+ 70%:   5 days - Oct 25
12+ 80%: 15 days - Nov 4
12+ 90%: 50 days - Dec 9

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau