ROB HARDING'S ULTIMATE GRAND FINAL PREVIEWBY ROB HARDING
SEN
24 October 2020Well, we finally made it!
The 162nd and final game of the longest AFL season is here, and it’s the dynasty against the fairytale.
Richmond is shooting for their third premiership in four years. Three flags put them in the Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane Lions territory for team of the 21st century.
For Geelong, a fourth flag in this era would be a remarkable achievement, and cap off the retiring Gary Ablett’s return to the club, as well as see one of the best players of the era, Patrick Dangerfield, finally achieve premiership success.
Last three meetings2020 Round 17: Richmond 7.15.57 d. Geelong 4.7.31 (26 points). Metricon Stadium (N)
2019 Preliminary Final: Richmond 12.13.85 d. Geelong 9.12.66 (19 points). MCG (N)
2019 Round 12: Geelong 16.8.104 d. Richmond 5.7.37 (67 points). MCG (N)
Something of note: Richmond has won four of the last five meetings between the two clubs since the start of 2018, yet in all five games, Geelong has won clearances and contested possession.
While this has given the Cats initial field position, the Tigers have been able to counter-punch effectively from their back half. In their last two meetings, Richmond scored 5.7 (out of 7.15) and 6.7 (out of 12.13) from their back half.
By way of comparison, Geelong has kicked only two goals from the back half in their last three games against Richmond.
Last time they metOn a Friday night in Round 17 at Metricon Stadium, the Tigers recorded a comfortable 26-point victory over the Cats.
The margin didn’t reflect the Richmond dominance, as Geelong kicked just 1.5 up until the five-minute mark of the fourth quarter.
Richmond’s defenders were able to drop off and prevent Tom Hawkins generating any one on ones against Noah Balta, with Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin leaving their young Cats opponents to provide support. The pair recorded 19 intercept possessions between them on the night.
Geelong were able to control possession with their kick and mark game, but Richmond successfully prevented them gaining any field position, teasing short kicks to the boundary line and keeping Geelong in their back half.
Richmond’s ability to counter attack from their defensive half was outstanding, kicking five of their seven goals from the back half, unsettling the Geelong defence. Had they kicked accurately in front of goal in the third quarter (2.
, the margin would have been significantly greater.
The Tigers win came at a cost, with Tom Lynch suffering a hamstring injury and Ivan Soldo a season ending knee injury.
There will be significant changes from the last time the two sides met.
Stanley, Selwood, Rohan, Simpson and Ablett all return for the Cats, while Richmond bring in Premiership players Prestia, Edwards, Astbury and Broad.
What Richmond learnt during the finalsDespite subtle variations over the years, Richmond’s system has remained relatively consistent since their first premiership in 2017.
This finals series, two key areas have stood out – their stoppage work, and the impact of their half forwards.
Stoppages have long been a vulnerability of this Richmond side. In the last four home and away seasons, they have ranked 17th, 16th, 18th and 11th for Clearance differential.
The impact of their clearance losses has been negated by the strength of their back six and their great ability to counter-punch, using their speed and spread in transition to outnumber from contest to contest after the stoppage.
This year Richmond ranked 17th for clearance differential, at -5.6 a game. In finals they’ve averaged +4.7 a game, which would rank #3 during the home and away season.
The turnaround has entirely been due to centre bounce, where the Tigers have been +7, +10 and +7 over the last three weeks.
The fourth quarter of their epic preliminary final victory was outstanding in this area, winning Centre Bounce 5-0, as part of a 16-4 Clearance domination in the quarter.
The Tigers half forward running power has been central to their sustained success.
Richmond will bring one or two forwards up to midfield stoppages then reset with speed, giving the opposition the difficult decision on whether to follow the forwards into the stoppage (and leave the rest of their defenders 4v4), or drop off one forward and give Richmond the outnumber at the contest.
Tigers half forwards also have the important role of pushing back to releasing their hard working wings back into defensive 50.
In their qualifying final loss to Brisbane, Richmond were outworked in both their defensive 50 and forward 50. The Lions were able to generate shots at goal from ground level in their attack, and mop up ground balls in Richmond’s forward line to prevent the Tigers hitting the scoreboard.
The Tigers have been much better in the last two weeks, and their connection between Half Forwards, Wings and Half Backs has been back to its very best.
What Geelong learnt during the finalsGeelong’s big structural change began in the final home and away round, as Patrick Dangerfield spent more time forward to provide another focal point to Tom Hawkins.
Dangerfield kicked 3.2 in a quarter and a half against the Swans in Round 18, followed up by 22 disposals, 7 inside 50s and a long running goal against Port, and 19 disposals and four goals in a dominant display against Collingwood.
Dangerfield’s time forward is only possible if the Geelong midfield is able to break even or better around the contest.
In their three finals games, Geelong have won Contested Possession on all three occasions (+4, +22 and +16) and Clearances in their last two games (+13 and +4). The return of Joel Selwood from injury and Sam Simpson as a high Half Forward pushing into stoppage has allowed Dangerfield the time forward.
One of the biggest sources of confidence for the Cats going into the Grand Final is that they have won their last two games in different ways.
While they have been strong in the contest in both games, the Cats were able to control the ball for long periods against a tired Collingwood team in their Semi Final.
The Cats took 134 marks for the night, more than 50 more than their home and away average, which ranked #1 in the AFL.
Against Brisbane they were more direct with the football, playing a forward-half game from stoppage and contest, and not having to rely on building the ball up slowly from their defensive half.
Given the way their Round 17 loss to Richmond played out, the Cats will take a lot of belief from their preliminary final win, and the different mix of players in their forward six.
Two things to watch forRichmond has been the best team in the last four years, and deservingly go in favourites to win their third premiership in four years.
For the Cats to win, there are two key areas they must address.
1. Geelong’s half forwardsIn Round 17 the Richmond defenders were able to easily drop off Geelong’s half forwards to impact against Hawkins.
The Cats have addressed this by bringing the experience of Rohan and Ablett back into the side, and by deploying Dangerfield as a forward.
When the Cats half forwards are no longer in dangerous positions, they must reset and keep the Richmond backs engaged.
The more one-on-ones Hawkins and Dangerfield get, the better for Geelong.
2. Geelong’s defensive shapeThe Cats are renowned for their strong defensive formation, preventing teams moving the ball forward with speed.
However, this has been an achilles heel against the Tigers, whose high half forwards and speed of ball have troubled the Cats out of their back half.
The key message for Geelong’s midfielders and forwards is “delay delay delay”.
Any time the Cats can buy to maintain their defensive formation and prevent Tigers fast breaks is worth its weight in gold.
Geelong can do this by coming forward to meet the Richmond surge and put pressure on the ball carrier, as Brisbane did in the qualifying final, and ensuring the have roll around support behind the ball.
PredictionBoth clubs are great role models to the competition for employing the right leaders, embedding a strong culture, and having trust and faith in the building process. As a result, the sustained success of both clubs comes as no surprise.
I was fortunate enough to be opposition analyst at Geelong for their last premiership in 2011, and would be thrilled to see a Cats flag and the fairytale complete for Ablett and Dangerfield.
It would be fitting for Chris Scott to coach his second Premiership, as the team has nearly entirely been rebuilt in his time at the club, all while retaining high positions on the ladder.
The Tigers have withstood all the distractions this year, and a third Premiership would be an appropriate reflection of their performance since 2017.
Based on their recent history, and the probability of a slippery night at the Gabba, I predict Richmond will get the job done.
Richmond by 16 points.https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/10/23/rob-hardings-ultimate-grand-final-preview/
