Fox Footy's Semi Final previewOctober 9, 2020 3:10pm
MAX LAUGHTON
FOX SPORTSHow do the Tigers win?Getting their marking game going, at both ends of the ground, will be absolutely critical for Damien Hardwick.
The Tigers “failed for the first time this year” against the Lions, failing to record a single intercept mark for the first time since 2014, while they only had five marks in their forward 50.
The latter was heavily impacted by Tom Lynch being absent (leaving Jack Riewoldt as the main target), and Harris Andrews being able to leave Mabior Chol to double-team Riewoldt.
This time the script is flipped, with the Tigers gaining Lynch for this game while the Saints lose one of their key defenders in Jake Carlisle.
“They looked lost going inside forward 50. I’m not sure whether that’s target-related or selection coming in, because they had some poor contributors that didn’t have great nights,” David King said on Fox Footy.
“Lynch coming back in just gives Jack so much support. Jack only took two marks inside 50, they (the Lions) knew where it was going and they could double-team him.
“The reverse happens this week. Lynch goes in, he takes two rather than Jack taking two, and then you have the luxury of (Dustin) Martin rolling forward.”
Martin will be crucial as well, needing to find the form up forward he hasn’t quite had this season.
After ranking first, first and second in the AFL for score involvements in 2017-19, the dual Norm Smith medallist ranks 14th in 2020. That’s still great, but not as game-breaking.
How do the Saints win?St Kilda has a clear stoppage advantage over Richmond, ranking second in the AFL for clearances (Tigers 16th) and sixth for scoring from stoppages (Tigers 14th).
However the Tigers defend stoppages well, partially thanks to being a dominant intercept team. Yet when the latter is negated, so is the former.
Against Brisbane, the premiers didn’t take a single intercept mark in their defensive 50, thanks to Brisbane’s use of one of their wingmen.
Usually the Tigers send one winger back, giving them an extra man in defence and freeing up an intercept marker, while the opponent keeps their winger at the stoppage. The problem then is getting the ball forward just sends it into the Tigers' trap.
“Richmond always want to have an extra defender - they want to get a plus-one, so they use their winger,” Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy.
“That’s Marlion Pickett as the corridor winger. He wants to come back and play as an extra to free up a Grimes or a Vlastuin to intercept.
“Brisbane went wing-on-wing, so that’s Brisbane’s winger essentially playing as a forward ... it means they can’t get their intercept game going.
“It takes away Richmond's greatest strength. Not only do they get that plus-one to intercept mark, but then it starts their rebound. It gives confidence for Bachar Houli, Jayden Short and Liam Baker to get on their bike and get to the open side.”
If the Saints do even up the numbers in their forward 50, they have two possible positive outcomes.
They can either rely on Max King and his teammates taking intercept marks - their 21 against the Bulldogs were the most by any team this year - or King getting the ball to ground for small forwards like Dan Butler to score.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-finals-2020-finals-preview-semifinals-richmond-vs-st-kilda-geelong-cats-vs-collingwood-analysis-video-stats/news-story/0ec3fb9a0aff222ebae820f776f258f8
