Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]

[WilliamPowell]

A month ago I was convinced we'd make finals and give it one helluva shake

Now, especially after last night's result I highly doubt we will make the 8 

[georgies31]

Shocking it' been last 3 games no confidence whatsoever and it aren't decline that's cost us  it's ourselves our stupidity , leadership  , composure and footy smarts , selection , undisciplined  , fitness and medical and Dimma hasn't coached well.

[one-eyed]

Kane Cornes discussing us and our finals chances today:

* It's not meant to be.

* Don't have the leadership out on the ground to direct and show the younger players what they have done in the past.

* Nankervis up forward was an absolute disaster. Not sure what Damien Hardwick was trying to get out of that. Clearly they were far too tall and half way through the last quarter they scrapped that.

* Some key personnel out. They have a hamstring epidemic and a soft tissue epidemic at that football club and have done for a long time.

* They are around the mark and still will be hard to beat and can cause some chaos. However, you line their team up with the Bulldogs for that last spot and it's chalk and cheese.

Source: AFL website.

[pmac21]

He's a flog but 100% correct. 
This year has been an abomination from round one. 
It's been really hard to watch all year. 
Our fitness and conditioning has been an absolute disaster and I'm glad there's change coming.

[pmac21]

Kane Cornes discussing us and our finals chances today:

* It's not meant to be.

* Don't have the leadership out on the ground to direct and show the younger players what they have done in the past.

* Nankervis up forward was an absolute disaster. Not sure what Damien Hardwick was trying to get out of that. Clearly they were far too tall and half way through the last quarter they scrapped that.

* Some key personnel out. They have a hamstring epidemic and a soft tissue epidemic at that football club and have done for a long time.

* They are around the mark and still will be hard to beat and can cause some chaos. However, you line their team up with the Bulldogs for that last spot and it's chalk and cheese.

Source: AFL website.

Actually don't agree with the last paragraph.  The Dog's have a good midfield but overall our list is better. 

[TigerLand]

Yeah agree Dogs are no good. Stop Bont and MacRae and they are a bottom 6 side.

Actually give Suns a fair chance. Maybe not ready yet but will go past a few clubs very soon.

[one-eyed]

The run home: Will Tigers miss out?

Nick D'Urbano
afl.com.au
25 July 2022

10. Richmond

38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw) 114.5 per cent

Two points are better than none, but four would've been worth their weight in gold as Richmond remains in the dogfight for the final spot in the top eight. The Tigers now sit just outside the top eight, two points adrift of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda, heading into the final four games of the season. Richmond only plays one more side in the top eight during the run home - with that coming next weekend at home against Brisbane - but its remaining three come against difficult opposition. Port Adelaide is still gunning for a finals berth while Hawthorn and Essendon have been no easybeats of late. In positive news, the Tigers should regain Tom Lynch for the huge contest against the Lions.

The run home
R20: Brisbane @ MCG
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Hawthorn @ MCG
R23: Essendon @ MCG

https://www.afl.com.au/news/803050/the-run-home-swans-eye-top-two-will-tigers-miss-out-

[one-eyed]

Foxsports has us now finishing Ninth  .


Dogs’ upset puts Tigers on the brink: Run Home after Rd 19

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 25th, 2022

10. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 114.5%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: Between 69% (10-8) and 32% (9-9)

Remaining fixture difficulty: 10th-hardest

Whichever of the Bulldogs and Tigers doesn’t play finals will be one of the best teams to miss the eight in years. But they’ll only be able to blame themselves.

Yet another failure to close out a winnable, close game means for the first time this year we’re not projecting Richmond to play finals. But it’s still incredibly close.

The draw doesn’t really help them - it’s like having a percentage of a billion, so as long as they finish level on wins with the Bulldogs (and/or Saints) they’ll be OK... it’s just a question of whether they can do that.

You would expect the Dogs to reach at least 12 wins by beating GWS and Hawthorn, so the Tigers must win three of their last four. That’s certainly doable; they’re still to play three teams below them on the ladder. (Though Port Adelaide and Essendon are way scarier than their ladder positions suggest.)

Look. If either team deserved the win on Friday night, it was Richmond. They are clearly still a high-quality team, and if we do the traditional ladder predictor and tip every game, we still have the Tigers playing finals (on 12 wins and a draw, with the Bulldogs on 12).

But in the last five minutes of games, they turn into a Benny Hill skit. And we don’t think he ever played finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.85 wins, finishing 9th

-----------------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong Cats (16.8 projected wins)
2. Melbourne (15.2) [ahead on percentage]
3. Brisbane Lions (15.2)
4. Fremantle (14.8 )
5. Collingwood (14.75)
6. Sydney Swans (14.65)
7. Carlton (13.95)
8. Western Bulldogs (12.2)
-------------------------------------
9. Richmond (11.85)
10. St Kilda (11.8 )
11. Gold Coast Suns (10.45)
12. Port Adelaide (10.2)
13. Hawthorn (8.5)
14. Essendon (8.05)
15. Adelaide Crows (7)
16. GWS Giants (6.55)
17. West Coast Eagles (3.1)
18. North Melbourne (2.95)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-the-run-home-after-round-19-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/0e9fd16b9f5e1c8be5d09899afdef6ce

[one-eyed]

The AFL website is predicting us to finish 9th  .

Our reporters' predicted final ladder

Richmond's draw with Fremantle in round 19 proved costly as the Tigers missed the eight.

1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. Sydney
4. Fremantle
5. Melbourne
6. Carlton
7. Collingwood
8. Western Bulldogs

9. Richmond
10. Port Adelaide
11. St Kilda
12. Gold Coast
13. Hawthorn
14. Essendon
15. Adelaide
16. Greater Western Sydney
17. West Coast
18. North Melbourne

https://www.afl.com.au/news/806938/top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-we-predict-the-ladder

[one-eyed]

Power Rankings after Round 19

Max Laughton
Foxsports
26 July 2022

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Brisbane
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. Carlton

8. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 114.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

It’s hard to come up with something fresh to say about the Tigers when we feel the same way as we have for weeks - they’re better than their record, and they’ve had plenty of bad luck. But their record is going to cost them finals if they don’t beat at least one of Brisbane or Port Adelaide over the next two weeks. At the very least it’s inevitable that a very good team (Richmond or the Bulldogs) will miss the eight, summing up how long the list of contenders is this season. They’re totally good enough to beat the Lions this weekend; but Kane Lambert’s retirement feels like a bit of an end of an era, doesn’t it? He was so crucial to their premiership years, and more exits are surely coming. They need to take this chance to play finals because even if their luck turns next year, they surely won’t be as good of a side.


9. Western Bulldogs
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. St Kilda

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-power-rankings-after-round-19-analysis-highlights-ladder-top-eight-every-club-ranked-predictions/news-story/fe2add38282e1a6505979b855689ef13

[one-eyed]

On the Couch and AFL 360 last night had a few more stats about Richmond.

Quarters won:

1. Geelong    69  (1st)
2. Melbourne 67  (2nd)
3. Richmond  62  (10th) 

Opposition scores per inside D50:

Richmond 2022      9th

Recent premiership teams have been top 4 in this stat.

Richmond 2017      3rd
Richmond 2019      1st
Richmond 2020      4th

West Coast 2018    1st
Melbourne  2021    1st


Finally, Nick Riewoldt reckoned given our recruiting last year (5 picks inside the top 30) and us debuting 14 players over the past two years while our premiership champions are still around to teach them successful habits, we won't bottom out in the medium term and will mostly remain in contention like Geelong and Sydney have over the past 15 or so years.

[Jonesracing82]

On the Couch and AFL 360 last night had a few more stats about Richmond.

Quarters won:

1. Geelong    69  (1st)
2. Melbourne 67  (2nd)
3. Richmond  62  (10th) 

Opposition scores per inside D50:

Richmond 2022      9th

Recent premiership teams have been top 4 in this stat.

Richmond 2017      3rd
Richmond 2019      1st
Richmond 2020      4th

West Coast 2018    1st
Melbourne  2021    1st


Finally, Nick Riewoldt reckoned given our recruiting last year (5 picks inside the top 30) and us debuting 14 players over the past two years while our premiership champions are still around to teach them successful habits, we won't bottom out in the medium term and will mostly remain in contention like Geelong and Sydney have over the past 15 or so years.

I agree on this last part, looking at our season, it's guys like Baker, Short & Bolton who have stepped up to be our main guys. pretty much all of the kids we have played have shown something also.

[one-eyed]

Race for eighth: An AFL finals spot is heating up

Peter O'Keefe
theinnersanctum.com.au
29/07/2022

Richmond – 10th (9-8-1 W/L/D, 114.5%)

As referenced by coach Damien Hardwick himself, the Tigers themselves are shooting themselves in the foot. If scenarios played out differently, we could be evaluating them as one of, if not the best team in the league.

Over the past three weeks, Richmond has conceded a 40-point lead to Gold Coast, inexplicably lost to North Melbourne, then missed late opportunities in a draw with Fremantle.

The Tigers rank third in scoring this season, but are ranked 10th in points against. Opposing teams have been able to take advantage of momentum and reel in large margins, evident in multiple fourth quarter fade-outs this season.

They have another massive clash this weekend against Brisbane, before finishing with Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon.

Anything could happen in that stanza of games, but don’t be surprised if the Tigers find a rhythm and win all four of them. Given their experience and recent successes, this is not a team the opposition will want to face in the first week of finals.

What’s the outcome?

St Kilda’s tough fixture makes things incredibly difficult for them, leaving the spot to either the Tigers or Bulldogs. Richmond’s draw against Fremantle means percentage is unlikely to play a factor.

The Bulldogs’ next two games might prove the difference either way, while the Tigers, despite their poor recent form, could foreseeably go in as favourites in all four of their matches.

For this reason, and given their premiership experience, expect Richmond to have one more finals campaign in it despite its position below the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda currently.

https://www.theinnersanctum.com.au/afl-finals-dogs-saints-tigers/

[Tigeritis™©®]

Um the loss to North really was the final straw

I’m not sure why they still think we are able to beat top eight teams when we haven’t looked close all year and we struggled beat the worst team since Fitzroy. 

I think mentally we were probably gone with the close loss to the cats at the G.

The biggest disappointments this year have been our new captains for lack of leadership and stupid decision making that has effected the whole team.

[one-eyed]

The Run Home after Round 20

Trent Masenhelder
afl.com.au
31 July 2022

9. Richmond
42 points (10 wins, one draw, eight losses) 114.0 per cent

The Tigers’ season looked dead and buried at half-time on Sunday, but the pre-eminent team since 2017 pulled (another) one out of fire to keep their season alive. Their once-unlikely victory keeps them within reach of the eight, ahead of a tough challenge against Port in Adelaide on Saturday night. The Power are playing well without winning, and will doubtless be hungry for some late-season redemption. If Richmond can get past Port, they are a big chance to make the top eight, with their last two opponents being Hawthorn and Essendon at the MCG. Put simply, the Tigers can’t afford any missteps.

The run home
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Hawthorn @ MCG
R23: Essendon @ MCG

https://www.afl.com.au/news/808089/the-run-home-lions-double-chance-blow-blues-could-miss