Stats That Matter: All Hail The Intercept PossessionBy James Rosewarne
statsinsider.com.au
3 November 2021There’s no one über trait that super charges AFL premiership aspirants. With that said, if we’ve learnt anything over the past few years it’s that if your club doesn’t possess the ability to intercept the opposition, it has virtually zero chance of flag glory.
Of the last 7 premiership winners, 6 have been ranked with the top-4 from the perspective of intercept disposal differential with the 2016 and 10th placed Western Bulldogs the usual exception to the natural order of things. And even then, the Doggies put aside their pedestrian 66.3 intercept possessions per game average that season to rack up a massive 80 on grand final day against the Swans.
This season, 7 of the post-season’s 8 participants all ranked ranked within top-8 for intercept disposal differential, with only the Giants able to overcome that shortcoming and play finals football. Of the last 14 teams to appear on grand final day, 11 have been top-6 in this increasingly important statistical category, while all 7 of our most recently minted premiers have won that stat in the last game of the year.
This season, the ability to pick off the opposition was a vital tool within Melbourne’s deep bag of tricks, dialling up a new AFL record +9.8 intercept disposal differential over the home and away season and stretching that to a gargantuan +11.3 over their three rampaging finals wins.
While we continue to see constant evolution in strategy throughout the AFL we’re right now seeing the intercept possession reign supreme, with a team’s ability to chew up and spit out an opposition’s best laid plans one of the surest ways to nudge your way into the premiership picture.
Let’s first check in on the progression of this trend, assess where we are right now while also taking a look at where we might be situated in 2022 and beyond.
Where did I come from? In 2013, Brian Lake crossed over from the Bulldogs to Hawthorn, stood within the defensive 50 arc, disrupted everything that came his way and walked away with three premierships in three seasons.
In combination with Josh Gibson and Ben Stratton this trio formed the defensive bedrock of a remarkable Hawks teams who were as phenomenally skilful as they were tenacious, using their powers of pressure and extraction to fuel so much of their possession and territorial-based empire.
As Hawthorn clobbered the Eagles on grand final day 2015, thus sealing their hat-trick of flags, Damian Hardwick and Alex Rance likely shared a conspiratorial wink at one another as Richmond would use their own brilliant full-back to soon wreak havoc upon the league.
While the Tigers missed finals in 2016, they returned in 2017 as a brute force romping to their first flag in 37 years with Dustin Martin winning both a Brownlow and Norm Smith medal.
That season Richmond led the league with 77.4 intercept possessions per game having ranked just 14th the season prior. Crucially that number was bolstered by having the league’s 4th best figure where opposition disposal efficiency was concerned coupled with ranking 5th for tackle differential.
This super strength of theirs grew stronger over the ensuing years, with that Tiger midfield applying maniacal pressure and forcing opponents into errors all over the park, the likes of which Richmond were perfectly drilled to first intercept and then rely upon their exquisite skill to carve through opponents on the counter.
As every champion team ought to do, Richmond studied what worked so well for Hawthorn and went to work creating and perfecting their own brand of dominance. As they did, Simon Goodwin and the Demons were out there taking furious notes.
Like Richmond, Melbourne benefitted from having one of the hardest working forward lines in the game and one who was hell bent on keeping the footy locked inside 50 on the occasions they weren’t marking or generating scoring shots. The Demons led the league with 12.4 tackles inside-50 per game which not only kept Melbourne in dangerous positions but allowed their predatory defence to rest and re-organise themselves.
Not only did Melbourne’s masterplan fuel their 9-0 start to the season and a minor premiership, but it was a plan that grew wings during September turning premiership caliber teams like Brisbane, Geelong and the Bulldogs to mush.
If the power of the intercept possession hadn’t been completely enshrined, Melbourne’s 2021 season confirmed its regal status.
Where are we going? As we mentioned earlier, 7 of this season’s 8 best intercept teams played finals while its chief predator brutalised the 2021 grand final.
Much of the tame 2021 offseason reflected the league’s increased understanding of the power of the intercept possession.
The Bulldogs only move was the bringing in Tim O'Brien to bolster an area of the field the club was sorely lacking. Richmond made Robbie Tarrant their October priority and one the club hopes can immediately help return them to premiership contention. Essendon made Jake Kelly the off-season’s first move and even lured Alex Rance across as an assistant coach hoping that his skills as a player can rub off in the coaching box.
Speaking of last season, the recruit of the year was Aliir Aliir who’s brilliant addition to Port’s backline helped return them to a preliminary final while he earning All-Australian status along the way. Geelong’s late-season loss of Tom Stewart perhaps derailed their premiership bid.
Over and over again we're seeing that if your club wants to be apart of the premiership conversation the ability to intercept is a non-negotiable pre-requisite. We'll see if this continues to be the case in 2022 and beyond.
https://www.statsinsider.com.au/blog/AFL/stats-that-matter-all-hail-the-intercept-possession
