Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[MintOnLamb]

Run home worst case scenario.
Melbourne -  searching for top 4 spot loss
Dogs - looking to secure their spot. at marvel loss
Stkilda - same boat as us. at marvel loss
Roos - if still in the hunt a win.
P/A - at a/o Looks like they will be playing for a top 2 spot and home ground finals. loss.

People can say what they like but that scenario is on the cards its more realistic than us winning 3 of the last 5.

even if we find a way to get there there is not a hope in hell of winning it all.

In many ways Melbourne may do us a favour if they win. we may start to prioritise kids and a changing of the guard.

With such a dysfunctional fwd line, and the head not the heart says  lets face it its actually almost bereft of actual fwds we just cannot win it.
I also think we are just one injury away from going from competetive in most games to easy beats.

Yep i can see the type of outraged posts with plenty of angst coming my way but at the end of the day i have thought all year in particular since lynch went down that it should be a redevelopment year with priority to kids.
I have not seen anything in the last 14 weeks to make me change my mind.

Tend to agree, we would just be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

A loss to Melbourne will also compound the coaching dilemma, they will be trying for wins where we should be preparing for 2024.

Anyway beat Melbourne, Lynch and Gibcus miraculously return, something happens to make Bradtke, Cumberland and MRJ superstars, and we could be a chance…

[cub]

Essendon choke going to cost us finals

This
Said it at the time, devastating loss as essendum are rubbish

[Diocletian]

Run home worst case scenario.

Not like you to be “glass half empty”

Our worst case scenario but his best...

[Jonesracing82]

We are getting games into some kids, i like this a lot, making Finals would be nice, while there's no expectation on us going far it'll give the kids Finals experience, much like our recent Premiership stars did in '13-15.

[mightytiges]

I had Carlton making it anyway but tonight pretty much makes it easy for them. Dogs and Cats (thanks to Kitty Park) should make finals too. St Kilda's spot is what we and the rest are now chasing.

[one-eyed]

From Foxsports:

Mid-round Run Home projections update...

5. GWS (12.8 wins)
6. CAR (12.75)
7. WB (12.55)
8. RIC (12.1* - 12.7 with win, 11.7 with loss)
9. ESS (11.95* - 12.45 with win, 11.45 with loss)
10. STK (11.8* - 12.25 with win, 11.25 with loss)
11. GEE (11.75)
* = to play

Bit happening.

https://twitter.com/maxlaughton/status/1685176079764623360

[mightytiges]

Just reposting this running final ladder prediction with the updated results of tonight which don't change anything for us.

-------------------------

After the results so far this round, there's still a couple of ways we can make the finals (especially if Geelong keep losing) and we still need to upset one of Melb, Dogs or Port on top of beating the Saints & Norf. If we win tomorrow, we'll be in the Eight at the end of this round  . However, if we don't win tomorrow, the game next week against the Dogs will be massive and will pretty much determine whether we make it or not.

Anyway, my updated prediction ladder with results as currently favoured based on the current betting odds (not that has mattered this round with every game by one so far being an upset  ).

                Current          R20       R21       R22       R23       R24      Final
                   Pts                                                                            Pts
   
Carlton         42                -          StK       Melb     GC (A)   GWS       54

Bulldogs       40                -          Rich    Haw (A)   WCE    Geel (A)    52   

GWS             44                -        Syd     Port (A)    Ess      Carl (A)    52

Geelong       38                 -         Port     Coll (G)  StK (A)   Dogs       50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adelaide        36               -           GC      Bris (A)   Syd     WCE (A)    48

Richmond     38              Melb   Dogs (A)   StK (A)   Norf     Port (A)    46

St Kilda         40              Haw       Carl       Rich      Geel     Bris (A)    44

Essendon      36               -          WCE      Norf    GWS (A)    Coll       44

Sydney          38               -          GWS       GC     Adel (A)    Melb      42

Gold Coast     36               -        Adel (A)  Syd (A)    Carl    Norf (A)    40

Legend:
Win
Loss

[mightytiges]

Season on the line for us next week. Win (we'd go to 50 pts and Dogs down to 48 in the below prediction) and we're back to a good chance of making it. Lose and it is pretty much season over as 46 pts isn't enough.   

                Current          R21         R22         R23         R24        Final
                   Pts                                                                        Pts
   
Carlton         42              StK         Melb       GC (A)     GWS         54

Bulldogs       40              Rich      Haw (A)     WCE      Geel (A)      52   

GWS             44              Syd       Port (A)      Ess        Carl (A)      52

Geelong       38                Port      Coll (G)    StK (A)     Dogs         50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adelaide        36              GC        Bris (A)     Syd       WCE (A)      48

Richmond     38            Dogs (A)   StK (A)     Norf       Port (A)      46

St Kilda         44              Carl         Rich        Geel      Bris (A)      44

Essendon      36              WCE        Norf      GWS (A)      Coll         44

Sydney          38            GWS         GC       Adel (A)      Melb        42

Legend:
Win
Loss

[one-eyed]

The Run Home after Round 20

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
31 July 2023

11. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)

Remaining games:

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest

It was a mighty fight against the Demons, and shows the Tigers aren’t yet a spent force, but it also puts them back on the outside of the finals race. There’s still a path for them to make the eight, but it almost certainly involves winning their next three, and in the process passing one or both of the Bulldogs and Saints. Especially since this round’s results have pretty much guaranteed Port Adelaide will be playing for ladder position in Round 24 - you wouldn’t want to be flying over there needing a win to make the eight. So it’s simple; Richmond has only won three games at Marvel Stadium since May 2019... and needs to win another two in the next fortnight to save its season.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.7 wins, finishing 10th

-------------------------------------------------------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (18.5 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (16.3)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.5)
4. Melbourne (15.5)
5. GWS Giants (12.85)
6. Carlton (12.75)
7. Western Bulldogs (12.55)
8. St Kilda (12.25)
----------------------------------
9. Geelong (11.75)
10. Richmond (11.7)
11. Sydney Swans (11.55)
12. Adelaide Crows (11.45)
13. Essendon (11.4)
14. Gold Coast Suns (10.9)
15. Fremantle (10.35)
16. Hawthorn (6.35)
17. North Melbourne (3)
18. West Coast Eagles (2.3)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-20-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/a4f958d9631612b6b781c22fb1ed4b65

[one-eyed]

The Run Home

Martin Smith
afl.com.au
31 July 2023

11. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, nine losses, one draw), 97.9 per cent

A painful loss for the Tigers on Sunday sets up a classic eight-point game against the Bulldogs on Friday night, with another to come against St Kilda a week later. A trip to Adelaide to face the Power in the final round of the season is a daunting one, meaning the Tigers will be desperate to bank some more wins before then.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/987164/the-run-home-giants-surge-bombers-fall-as-race-for-top-two-heats-up

-----------------------------------------

Run Home: Every game and final ladder prediction

Josh Barnes
HeraldSun
31 July 2023

11. RICHMOND

Richmond's Run Home
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

Predicted finish: 10th (11-11-1)

Leading late on Sunday against Melbourne, a win would have put Richmond in the box seat to make the finals. Now the Tigers probably need to win twice at Marvel Stadium and don’t ask Damien Hardwick how much they like playing there. It’s a tough run but they can still get there.

Final Predicted Ladder

1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Melbourne (17-6)*
3. Port Adelaide (17-6)*
4. Brisbane Lions (16-7)
5. Carlton (13-9-1)
6. Western Bulldogs (13-10)*
7. GWS Giants (13-10)*
8. Geelong (12-10-1)
-------------------------------
9. Adelaide (12-11)
10. Richmond (11-11-1)
11. St Kilda (11-12)*
12. Essendon (11-12)*
13. Sydney (10-12-1)
14. Gold Coast (10-13)
15. Fremantle (9-14)
16. Hawthorn (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (2-21)*
18. West Coast (2-21)*

*Percentage will decide final spots

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-run-home-every-game-and-final-ladder-prediction/news-story/d11adf270d3202d47de0eac7612ed8d7

[rogerd3]

We are in no man’s land.

[the claw]

Have a feeling the crows will be the ones to scrape in. Three very winnable games and the way they have been playing it will only take an upset against the bears who they beat last time around.Bit different at the gabba though.

[camboon]

Geelong play port,Collingwood , st kilda and the dogs, not sure their going to make it

[one-eyed]

AFL Power Ranking after Round 20

Max Laughton
Foxsports
1 August 2023

10. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

It was always going to be the Tigers’ defence that was going to cost them games - from the enormous score leaked against Brisbane which ruined their percentage, to allowing another 20 majors against Melbourne on Sunday, they’ve allowed 15-plus goals to be kicked six times. And unsurprisingly they’ve only won two of those games, both by just a kick. Of course it swings the other way too; their attack has looked very promising and been pretty consistent too, even without Tom Lynch (whose presence is clearly missed, forcing Jack Riewoldt into a much heavier role than he or the coaching staff would want). They move up a spot in the rankings partially because of their own solid performance against the Dees, which only blew out late, and because of the Bombers’ latest loss. Friday night is must-win.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-20-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/f7e5a4d9d5eabc08e5afcf4480df5cdc

[one-eyed]

Top eight, double chance, who misses? We predict the ladder

AFL website staff writers
1 August 2023

Richmond also proved divisive, with Edwards, Gabelich and Bastiani again going against the grain by tipping the Tigers to finish seventh. The six others see them missing the eight altogether and even finishing as low as 13th.

AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*

1. Collingwood
2. Port Adelaide
3. Melbourne
4. Brisbane
5. Carlton
6. Greater Western Sydney
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Geelong

9. Adelaide
10. Richmond
11. St Kilda
12. Sydney
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. Fremantle
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast

*Our nine reporters completed our ladder predictor and picked their expected top eight. Their responses were then tallied and averaged out to get a combined predicted ladder.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/992455/top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-we-predict-the-ladder