Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[Broadsword]

We're three big guys short of a premiership: KPF, KPD, ruck. Unless someone like a Miller really stands up, Balta re-emerges as anything other than a panic merchant, and Soldo can get back to 2019 serviceability, then there's a good chance we just don't have the cattle this year. Hell I'd even let Riewoldt play in the 2s and play Lynch CHF and Martin FF and go small again like previous years.

Something doesn't quite feel right. Too many slow, tired bodies whose names look good on paper but just don't have the spring in their step.

[one-eyed]

Open season: Why half the AFL clubs can win the flag

Jake Niall
The Age
March 6, 2023

In 2023, probably for the first time since the competition expanded to 18 teams, at least half of the AFL clubs will enter the season believing that, if all goes well, they could win the premiership.

This is not the norm. Typically, there are only four to six teams that are clear contenders before the first bounce and, once the season progresses, there’s usually a bolter that storms up the ladder from the bottom six or eight, such as Collingwood last year and Richmond in 2017 (they won the flag).

Where 2023 appears to differ from seasons past is the sheer number of teams that can’t be ruled out of premiership contention.

Consider last year’s top eight.

Geelong, Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions should contend for the premiership in 2023, simply based on experience and talent.

Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs aren’t as clear contenders as the aforementioned trio, but they can’t be dismissed. Given a charmed run, all can reach the grand final.

So that’s seven clubs that can win it. Of that group, Richmond are the most doubtful; recruiting Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto addresses one (midfield) need, but the Tigers have several veterans on the downswing, including Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Dusty Martin.

“Richmond could go one of two ways – they could go all the way to a grand final, or they could drop out of the eight,” opined ex-Lion great and Fox Footy pundit Jonathan Brown.

At the Fox Footy launch last week, I asked Jason Dunstall and David King how many sides could win it, if all went swimmingly. Dunstall started with six, but as he rattled off clubs, he ended up with eight – Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton, Fremantle, Richmond, Collingwood and “maybe Port”. King thought up to 10 teams were flag-capable, including Port.

Jake Niall's predicted ladder

1      Melbourne
2      Brisbane Lions
3      Geelong
4      Western Bulldogs
5      Carlton
6      Sydney
7      Collingwood
8      Richmond
-------------------------------
9      Fremantle
10      Port Adelaide
11      GWS
12      Gold Coast
13      St Kilda
14      West Coast
15      Adelaide
16      Essendon
17      North Melbourne
18      Hawthorn

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/open-season-why-half-the-afl-clubs-can-win-the-flag-20230303-p5cpab.html

[one-eyed]

Fox Footy is tipping us to finish between 4th to 7th.


Their full season preview discussion of Richmond is from 27:15 to 32:00 min marks:

LISTEN: https://omny.fm/shows/fox-footy-podcasts/fox-footy-podcast-2023-season-preview-part-2-h-to

[one-eyed]

Michael Barlow, Scott Cummings and Tim Gossage have named their Top 4s for the 2023 season.

Barlow’s Top 4

1. Brisbane
2. Geelong
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Sydney
Melbourne
Carlton
GWS
Richmond

Cummings’ Top 4

1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne

3. Richmond

“Richmond are the ones who are going to really improve this year.”

4. Fremantle

Gossage’s Top 4

Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Geelong

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/07/barlow-cummings-and-gossage-name-their-top-4s-for-2023/

[one-eyed]

POWER RANKING ALL 18 AFL TEAMS HEADING INTO ROUND 1

By Nic Negrepontis
SEN
8 March 2023

The AFL season is eight days away and we now have all possible information available from the off-season to make some judgements.

With that in mind, we have crafted our AFL team power rankings at the conclusion of the summer and going into Round 1.

We have factored in last year’s ladder positions, the trade period, draft, off-season injuries, both pre-season games and, of course, the general vibes.

Here’s how things sit!

1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. Melbourne
4. Sydney
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Fremantle
7. Collingwood

8. Richmond

The Tigers got run out of Casey Fields by Melbourne and Dion Prestia and Jayden Short are touch-and-go for Round 1, but the Tigers know how to time a run across a season. If they’re back in the premiership mix, thanks to a strong trade period, they’re not going to be too bothered about hitting next Thursday night at full steam.

9. Carlton
10. Adelaide
11. Port Adelaide
12. GWS Giants
13. St Kilda
14. Gold Coast
15. West Coast
16. Hawthorn
17. Essendon
18. North Melbourne

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/07/power-ranking-all-18-afl-teams-heading-into-round-1/

[one-eyed]

Expert verdict on all 18 teams

Fox Footy
March 8th, 2023

RICHMOND

LAST YEAR: 7th and lost elimination final, 13-1-8, 121.6%

Brad Johnson:
They’ll be strong, off the back of what they were able to get to last year and then off the back of (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper adding into the midfield.

It adds a layer of strength straight away that I think they need - though in saying that even Taranto and Hopper and a couple of the other mids from the first practice game, a real eye-opener in terms of working from the contest.

Melbourne destroyed them out at Casey. They’ll look at that and have to do a lot of work mentally over the next couple of weeks to get themselves set.

Leigh Montagna:
It’s going to be fascinating how that forward line works. Offensively it sounds pretty good but just defensively I’ve got some slight questions; when you look at (Noah) Cumberland, (Trent) Cotchin, (Dustin) Martin, Shai Bolton when he’s down there and (Maurice) Rioli, their pressure ratings are all below average or average.

They’re not elite pressure and when you think of Richmond’s premiership teams and that relentlessness in the front half, it was off the back of (Jason) Castagna, (Dan) Butler, (Daniel) Rioli when he used to play there, (Shane) Edwards, Jack Graham.

Last year they struggled to stop the opposition moving the ball from one end of the field to the other and their pressure rating was poor. Have they addressed that?

David King:
I think Damien Hardwick has been operating off two of the three facets of the game; he’s never really been able to compete with the contested and clearance angle.

You get Hopper and Taranto in and all of a sudden, you can beat opposition teams with all three modes of the game - defence, on offence and at clearance.

I think Taranto’s a total star and he’s going to have a huge impact on the Tigers; I think he’s going to be considered a top-five player in the competition at the end of the year.

Predicted finish

Johnson: Finals

King: Top 4

Montagna: Finals

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-season-preview-every-club-analysed-by-fox-footy-experts-predicted-ladder-premier-risers-sliders-tips/news-story/83c7f53e68f419fe5233e118a009aa21

[Damo]

Have never rated Montagna

And his MRJ comments just solidified that

NFI 

[Andyy]

Mrj low pressure didn't he basically win that stat last year?

[one-eyed]

AFL Team Wins Over/Unders 2023 best bets: Richmond

Jaymz Clements
Codesports.com.au
March 9, 2023

RICHMOND TIGERS

Last Year: 13-8-1 (7th)

The rich get Richmond-er.

Despite the retirements of stalwarts like Shane Edwards, Josh Caddy and Kane Lambert, the Tigers plundered the team they beat in the 2019 Grand Final – Greater Western Sydney – one more time in trading for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to bolster its midfield.

It ought to solidify Richmond’s midfield depth, and they’ll need it with a tough start to the season with their traditional opener against Carlton then games against Collingwood, the Dogs, Sydney and Melbourne.

But from round seven on, the Tigers have a chance to rip off six wins in eight games and themselves up for a stretch run where they’d also like their chances to win seven of their final eight. 13 games against teams that didn’t make last year’s eight certainly helps matters.

* Richmond – Top 4 finish – $2.40 (via bet365)

Crucially they double up games against mid-tier teams like West Coast, St Kilda, Port and the Bulldogs: if the Tiges can take care of business there as well as against other lower-level teams like Essendon, Adelaide, Gold Coast and North and split wins with Sydney, they should springboard to 14+ wins handily.

2023 Win/Loss Prediction: 16 Wins 7 Losses

THE PICK: OVER 14.5 wins – $2 (via bet365)

https://www.codesports.com.au/bet/afl/tips/afl-team-wins-overunders-2023-best-bets-port-adelaide-richmond-st-kilda-sydney-west-coast-western-bulldogs/

[mightytiges]

Have never rated Montagna

And his MRJ comments just solidified that

NFI 

Mrj low pressure didn't he basically win that stat last year?

While he was ordinary with the ball last weekend, Maurice had the most pressure acts on the ground. It was daylight to the next Tiger which was the problem .

[Francois Jackson]

and if MRJ goes down with an injury who do we have? Hopper? Ross? Clarke

How we did not go for a cheap bobby hill type or something is beyond me.

[one-eyed]

AFL captains' tips for 2023

afl.com.au
9 March 2023

All 18 captains were polled ahead of the 2023 season, with eight skippers backing the Cats to return to the Grand Final this year, while Brisbane (four votes), Richmond and Sydney (one vote each) also won support.

1) Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year's top eight?

17 – Brisbane
16 – Geelong Cats, Richmond
15 – Sydney Swans, Melbourne
12 – Fremantle
11 – Collingwood
9 – Carlton
6 – Western Bulldogs
5 – Port Adelaide
2 – Gold Coast
1 – St Kilda, Adelaide

2) Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?

8 – Geelong Cats
4 – Melbourne, Brisbane Lions
1 – Richmond, Sydney Swans

4) Which player from another club do you think will win the 2023 Coleman Medal?

6 – Jeremy Cameron, Tom Lynch
1 – Nat Fyfe, Harry McKay, Jack Gunston, Tom Hawkins, Charlie Curnow, Aaron Naughton

6) Other than your own club, which AFLW club will reach this year's Grand Final?

6 – Melbourne, Brisbane
2 – Adelaide
1 – North Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle, Richmond

https://www.afl.com.au/news/880865/grand-finalists-brownlow-top-eight-skippers-tips-for-2023

[one-eyed]

From Damian Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:



IF ...
I embarrassed myself in declaring the Tigers were no chance of winning the 2019 premiership the day after Alex Rance broke down in round one ...

THEN ...
here we go again. They’re not winning the 2023 flag. Not even confident they’ll make the eight.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/881031/if-the-thoughts-of-ross-the-boss-were-mistakenly-broadcast-then

[one-eyed]

David King's top 8

Melbourne
Brisbane
Richmond
Collingwood
Bulldogs
Sydney
Geelong
Carlton

“I’m a huge Richmond believer. I still think they’ve got a system many teams struggle to stop. The additions of these two midfielders, Richmond has never relied on winning clearances to become a contender, they’ve been the intercept kings who punish on turnover, and now they have another way to win. They’re third for me.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/09/david-king-makes-his-top-8-prediction-for-the-2023-season/

[pmac21]

From Damian Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:



IF ...
I embarrassed myself in declaring the Tigers were no chance of winning the 2019 premiership the day after Alex Rance broke down in round one ...

THEN ...
here we go again. They’re not winning the 2023 flag. Not even confident they’ll make the eight.

Damo should be embarrassed.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/881031/if-the-thoughts-of-ross-the-boss-were-mistakenly-broadcast-then