Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[one-eyed]

Power Rankings after Round 15

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 27th, 2023

6. RICHMOND (6-7-1, 102.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

The Tigers had the bye, and only move down because of the Cats’ impressive win over a top-four side. Having said that they’re a prime example of how the ladder lies during the bye rounds. They looked super dangerous going into the weekend, sitting ninth... and now because three teams below them won, they’re 12th. One of just two teams on a three-game (or better) winning streak, we wouldn’t expect them to do what few teams can do and knock off Brisbane away - their shot at a surprise finals berth starts in Round 17, when a home game against Sydney kicks off a very winnable three weeks. They should be aiming to be 9-8-1 in a months’ time.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/one-word-sums-up-utter-shambles-win-exposes-scary-truth-we-all-forgot-power-rankings/news-story/cdd3f67901bdf2381131fcb4f48bb6ea

[one-eyed]

Run Home: Every AFL club’s last nine weeks, final predicted ladder

Will Hogan
HeraldSun
June 27, 2023

RICHMOND

Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 102.4

R16: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R17: Sydney, MCG (W)

R18: West Coast, Optus (W)

R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)

R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

Predicted Finish: 9th (11-1-11)

There are many Tigers fans who think the finals dream is still alive and they’re right despite a predicted 9th finish. They have a winnable game against the Dogs in round 21 which could shape how the eight looks. At this stage just half a game out in our final ladder and we know a surging Tigers outfit could flip the script at some point in the last nine games.

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (20-3)
3. Melbourne (17-6)
4. Brisbane (16-7)
5. Western Bulldogs (14-9)
6. Adelaide (13-10)*
7. Geelong (13-10)*
8. Fremantle (12-11)
------------------------------
9. Richmond (11-1-11)
10. St Kilda (11-12)*
11. Essendon (11-12)*
12. Gold Coast (11-12)*
13. Sydney (10-13)
14. Carlton (9-1-13)
15. GWS Giants (9-14)
16. Hawthorn (5-18)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)

*percentage could change finishing spots

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-every-afl-clubs-last-nine-weeks-final-predicted-ladder/news-story/e7c5cd6793bc4f9cd76e00f8a2a4b9e4

[Tiger Khosh]

So they have us beating every team below us on the ladder and losing to every team above us (other than the saints). You can tell they put a lot of thought into it. If only footy were that easy.

[the claw]

So they have us beating every team below us on the ladder and losing to every team above us (other than the saints). You can tell they put a lot of thought into it. If only footy were that easy.

What do you want from them TK. Teams have been better than us thus they are higher on the ladder.

Brisbane Loss at the gabba is fair enough. Loss
Sydney okay we are travelling better than them atm  but they like us are getting players back it aint a monty. Win but not a cert.
WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part. Big win
Hawthorn well we should win but again it is not a cert. win but had better go into it half arsed.
Melbourne have had the better of us and the real Missing bit in all these big games is Lynch. Loss
Footscray at marvel. that is a loss the way we play there.
StKilda at marvel. Personally i have the saints as favorites because of where it is played. Loss.
North melbourne at the G should be a win.
Port Adelaide over there is a loss just based on the last game.

As the resident pessimist im only prepared to say 4 wins as certs. Still need to find two surprise wins to be a chance of finals.
Also we need to stay healthy especially with key personell because we all know the depth is shallow.

You think they could have been kinder with their assesment they could also have been a bit more cruel.

[Damo]

WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.

How do you envisage percentage playing a part?

Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away

Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?

Or are you expecting another draw along the way?

[one-eyed]

From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:



IF ...
I’d bought into the Richmond-could-make-finals thing ...

THEN ...
after Thursday night, I’m selling. Sometimes the ladder lies, and sometimes it doesn’t.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/957759/if-lachie-neale-has-already-won-a-brownlow-then

[mightytiges]

WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.

How do you envisage percentage playing a part?

Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away

Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?

Or are you expecting another draw along the way?

Like tonight  .

If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years  .

[FooffooValve]

WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.

How do you envisage percentage playing a part?

Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away

Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?

Or are you expecting another draw along the way?

Like tonight  .

If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years  .

True, but let's get real, it isn't going to matter much. We're very likely to finish at least 2 or 3 wins short of 8th place.

[mightytiges]

WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.

How do you envisage percentage playing a part?

Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away

Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?

Or are you expecting another draw along the way?

Like tonight  .

If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years  .

True, but let's get real, it isn't going to matter much. We're very likely to finish at least 2 or 3 wins short of 8th place.

Next week we'll know for sure. Lose and it is goodbye finals. Win and we'll still in the running.

One terrible loss doesn't make a season. That infamous St Kilda game at Docklands in 2017 was in round 16 too  .

[Damo]

WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.

How do you envisage percentage playing a part?

Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away

Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?

Or are you expecting another draw along the way?

Like tonight  .

If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years  .

We are miles from either of those sides in percentage
Even before Thursday night

[one-eyed]

Crows and Dogs won. So, we're back to being a game and half out of the Eight.

[one-eyed]

Foxsports says we have the easiest draw from here on but they are still predicting us to finish 11th.

The Run Home after Round 16

Max Laughton
Foxsports
2 July 2023

- Richmond-Sydney on Thursday night is a mini elimination final, since the six-win teams can pretty much only afford two more losses.

15. RICHMOND (6-8-1, 95.6%)

Remaining games:

Round 17: Sydney Swans at the MCG

Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

We were going to happily explain about how it didn’t really matter whether Richmond lost to Brisbane by one point or by a billion - because of the draw on the record, their percentage was basically irrelevant, so it was just whether they lost at all. But now Geelong and Sydney’s draw means the Tigers would lose a tie to them; it’s an unlikely scenario but one that exists. More to the point the simply awful manner of the beatdown reminds everyone that, oh yeah, Richmond won a few games in a row, and they’re somewhere in this very large peloton of teams, but they’re still reasonably flawed and well behind the actual contenders. Next week’s clash with Sydney is a virtual elimination final, since both teams probably need to win six of their last eight games to make the eight. After all with the Tigers still needing to play the Dees and Power, you’d suggest the Swans are one of their six easiest opponents left.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.1 projected wins, finishing 11th


PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (17.9 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (17.
3. Brisbane Lions (16)
4. Melbourne (14.15)
5. Western Bulldogs (13.55)
6. St Kilda (12.
7. Geelong (12.4)
8. Adelaide Crows (12.35)
--------------------------------------------
9. Essendon (12.15)
10. Fremantle (11.1)
11. Richmond (11.1)
12. Gold Coast Suns (10.9)
13. GWS Giants (10.5)
14. Carlton (10.4)
15. Sydney Swans (10.2)
16. Hawthorn (7.05)
17. North Melbourne (4.5)
18. West Coast Eagles (2.1)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-16-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/59bc85665512d042faa4d5fa7e4ec25d

[the claw]

I don't mind them aiming for finals but it should be achieved on the back of playing kids.

Looking long term we will lack mids i cannot believe we are not pumping games into Sonsie.If we play him then don't hide him away in the fwd line play him in his best role.

Banks as a hb or wing has to be a better option than Ross and call it role or whatever but McIntosh who turns 30 at the start of next season has always been deficient. To top it off Pickett will be 32 is no longer playing wing and is struggling. We need to upgrade our wings that is widely accepted i think

Brown well we cant plan for injury but now he is fit time to find Rioli's partner on the other flank god forbid that would mean Baker or Short do not play in defense. The other option would be to play Brown and Banks on the wings. Pick 17 and a good sized running hb is required.

Gibcus when fit needs to play kpd with talls  Balta Grimes and Broad around him he will have plenty of cover. It also means god forbid Young doesnt play and Tarrant can retire gracefully. He is the long term partner for Balta.

Bauer/Bradtke/Nyuon well all year ive carried on about just getting games into a tall forward. Idea was to play one of the two when one struggled play the other. Going by reports Bradtke is not ready but what else does Bauer have to do to get a game. Nyuon well they have given up on him playing as a defender it seems so lets see what he can offer fwd.Surely we can try one of them at a time. there is a need to anyway.

Continue to play Ryan though i think he could do with a spell this week to find a bit of confidence in the two's. He is the opposite to Nankervis and because of it a good foil.

The path we take next year should be the path we take now injuries permitting. We have to stop finding ways to play older blokes at the expense of kids and do the opposite find ways to play kids in their best roles

Vlastuin - Balta - Grimes  Miller for now with Gibcus still injured.
Brown - Gibcus - Rioli.

Banks - Taranto* - Broad. Have always liked the idea of Broad playing the defensive wing role. It allows Brown to play h/b

Nankervis - Hopper - Sonsie#.  Midfield is  Sonsies best go imo.

Clarke - Riewoldt - Martin*.  Martin and Taranto rotate

Bauer - Lynch - Bolton#.  Bolton, Prestia, Sonsie rotate.

Ryan - Baker - Prestia# - Short.

McIntosh - Graham.

That allows Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Clarke, Bauer and Ryan  to get regular games. Bauer aside they all will be in at least yr 3 it is time to just play em and hopefully they show enough. 

[MintOnLamb]

Have to agree Claw.
All the hiatus about who we draft then not play them. Just ridiculous.
This year is done so let’s see what we have moving forward

[one-eyed]

Mathematically, Richmond are a game and a half out of the eight, plus a whack of percentage. That doesn’t sound insurmountable with eight rounds to go – their destiny isn’t out of their own hands yet – but on Thursday night’s evidence, this team is done. Their ball use and movement were atrocious, with the Lions making them look old (which, aside from Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, they’re not) and slow (which they are). - Andrew Stafford

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-pies-are-warming-up-but-are-richmond-done-key-takeouts-for-round-16-20230627-p5djsn.html