Article in today's Age about possessions being meaningless. Richmond and David King get a mention. Click on the link at the end for the full article.--------------------------------
Disposable football
Dan Silkstone | July 12, 2008
Once possessions were considered the key indicator of performance. Then the tide shifted, as the 1990s gifted us the cliche: "They're overpossessing the footy". But the truth about how many disposals you get these days isn't that it is bad or good. It means almost nothing.
The link between possession and victory gets weaker each year. In 2000, according to Champion Data, the team collecting the most disposals in a match won 80% of all games. In the eight years since, it has steadily decreased. This year the top disposal-getter wins only 72% of games.
Different teams play different styles, that much is obvious. But is there any link between how many times you get the ball and how well you play? The disposals ladder in The Age makes interesting reading. Geelong had touched the ball more than anybody else this year. Judging by results it is not hurting them.
Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs are also near the top of both ladders.
But Carlton, Richmond and Port Adelaide are all in the disposals top eight, and West Coast just outside. Finals contenders Sydney, Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne occupy three of the bottom four spots.
Here's another interesting question: If both teams break even in disposals, what — judging by their record — would happen on the scoreboard? Results here vary widely. If Adelaide gets the same number of disposals as their opposition, the stats predict they will win by 15 points. For other teams, however, a break-even result is not enough.
If Richmond matches its opponent for total disposals, the Tigers will lose by 22 points. For Carlton, a deadlock on the stats sheet means a 20-point loss. It appears such young sides, with skills still developing, have little chance of victory if they do not dominate possession.
Richmond has accumulated more touches than its opponent in 59% of matches this year. Plenty of those have been losses. Compare that with the Bulldogs, who have had more possessions than their opponent in only 43% of matches. The solid, mid-table Kangaroos are even more direct. They have touched the ball more than the opposition in just 31% of games.
"We don't really look at disposals," Bulldogs coach Rodney Eade said. Eade reckons the language and ideas most footy fans still apply to the game belong to a bygone era. "It's more about where you get them now, how you get them and how efficiently you use the ball. You can chip it round the back-half and rack-up possessions and it doesn't mean anything. We look at whether they are contested and what part of the ground we are winning them in."
Richmond assistant coach David King agreed. "We look not just at possessions, but the cost of those possessions. Some players can do enormous damage with only mid-teens possessions. You always have to look at whether they are productive and what do they give your team?"
Joel Bowden took 23 marks and had 39 disposals from half-back against Port Adelaide earlier this year, but did not get a single vote from either of the coaches. In the Hawthorn-West Coast match a fortnight ago, Matt Priddis collected 45 touches. But would any coach rank his game higher than that of Dale Thomas, who took Sydney apart last weekend but gathered only 16?
"Flat numbers can't tell you whether you are winning or losing a game," King said. "We don't go out of our way to have more possessions than our opponent. The stats that matter are the ones that impact the scoreboard."Not all stats are equal. Every disposal Geelong wins above the number accrued by its opponent gives the Cats an additional 0.71 points on the scoreboard. Geelong don't just get the ball more than anyone else, they are more damaging with it. For Carlton, each additional disposal is worth just 0.35 points — less than half as much.
High numbers of possessions are incidental to the Cats' success, rather than instrumental in it, Riley says. "Geelong's game is not based on how much they have the ball. It is based on playing a fast, attacking style that is team-oriented. To bring all your teammates into the game the easiest way is to handball. To play on quickly, the best way is to handball. They have such great confidence now that they just flip it around."
Handballs are fine if they are handballs with purpose, and the primary purpose is to get a kicker free for delivery into the forward line. Geelong do this better than anyone.
"At our level, most players are very skillful," Riley said. "What throws them off is pressure. Three years ago everyone said Geelong had a pedestrian, moderately skilled midfield, now they are All-Australians who deliver exquisitely. The difference is their kicker now has time and space."
It has given rise to a game in which there are more disposals than ever before, but it sometimes seems harder to judge who is playing it well. Perhaps, as Thompson says, the best idea is simply to ask: "Is it good football to watch?"
Complete article at:
http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/disposable-football/2008/07/11/1215658140354.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
