Author Topic: Totally random Draft exercise  (Read 949 times)

Offline cub

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Totally random Draft exercise
« on: July 21, 2009, 12:04:05 PM »
Over the last 10 - 15 years can someone do these stats.

Straight off the top of my head no thought at all.

3 v 6
12 v 15
18 v 19
23 v 25
31 v 34

Someone if you feel compare these draft picks over the last 10 - 15 years and then get back to me on tanking.


Then after this feel free to add random samples - sure people are gunna pick to the advantage of their argument but if everyone joins in we may get an even spread and more idea about if tanknig is all it is cut up to be.

ENJOY  :thumbsup

FooffooValve

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Re: Totally random Draft exercise
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2009, 12:24:21 PM »
Try this one: only 3 (maybe 4?) number 1 draft picks are premiership players.  :o

Offline Smokey

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Re: Totally random Draft exercise
« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2009, 12:57:12 PM »
Try this one: only 3 (maybe 4?) number 1 draft picks are premiership players.  :o

There have been 18 priority picks since 1997 and premiership players in that group are Headland, Hodge, Judd and Ellis.  2 of these 4 have also changed clubs in their career.

There have been 3 premiership playing #1 draft picks since 1995.

Offline TigerLand

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Re: Totally random Draft exercise
« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2009, 01:04:40 PM »
2005 Draft vs 2006 Draft vs 2007 Draft

Pick 3's vs 6's

Pick 3's
2005 => Xavier Ellis
2006 => Lachlan Hanson
2007 => Chris Masten

Vs.

Pick 6's
2005 => Beau Dowler
2006 => Mitch Thorp
2007 => David Myers

Top 3 Players IMO:
Chris Masten
David Myers
Xavier Ellis


Pick 12's vs 15's

Pick 12's
2005 => Nathan Jones
2006 => James Frawley
2007 => Cyril Rioli

Vs.

Pick 15's
2005 => Travis Varcoe
2006 => Daniel OKeefe
2007 => Robbie Tarrant

Top 3 Players IMO:
Cyril Rioli
Nathan Jones
Travis Varcoe



Pick 18's vs 19's

Pick 18's
2005 => Max Bailey
2006 => Leeroy Jetta
2007 => Alex Rance

Vs.

Pick 15's
2005 => Courtney Dempsey
2006 => Shaun Grieg
2007 => Callum Ward

Top 3 Players IMO:
Courtney Dempsey
Alex Rance
Callum Ward/Jetta


If you had a draft now with just these players I reckon it woudl go something like this:

1. Cyril Rioli (PICK 12)
2. Chris Masten (PICK 3)
3. Nathan Jones (PICK 12)
4. David Myers (Pick 6)

Raffle the rest.

So in the last 3 years the 4 best player IMO out of the Pick 3’s 6’s, 12’s and 15’s. Only 1 is Pick 3. You could Argue that Ellis could be in there but I don’t rate Ellis.

Also as for Hawthorns “tanking” or bottoming out. Dowler, Bailey and Thorp all didn’t feature in the premiership side. You could also argue that Ellis was very lucky to be selected over Tuck.


Meh back to work..
Go Tigers!

Offline mightytiges

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Re: Totally random Draft exercise
« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2009, 11:23:35 PM »
Ellis was one of the Hawks best players in the GF until he went off injured. I'd have such a highly skilled player in his early 20s who stands up in the big games at Richmond.

In any case the argument is not a case of this pick number is better than that pick number when the gap between the picks is just three. We are instead comparing 3 picks in the top 20 compared to just one. It's playing the odds to boost your chances of picking up more good kids collectively. We are comparing picks 2, 18, 19, 35, 51 with picks 8, 24, 40, 56, 72. So compare what was available at pick 18 (priority pick) with what was available at pick 72 if you're going to compare draft picks. That's the difference. Tanking provides you with an extra early draft pick. To argue that receiving a free gimme extra top 20 pick provides no advantage is an strange way to argue against tanking ???. Remember this draft lacks depth due to GC17 having exclusive access to the 17 year olds. That's one third of a normal draft missing in November.

What those arguing against the extra early pick also forget is the extra pick gives the Club room to delist another player who isn't up to it. Rather than cutting a McMahon and replacing him with a kid at pick 72 who has a low percentage of making it, you are replacing Jordie with a top 20 pick (which we should have done in the first place  ::) ).

As I said it's all about playing and improving the odds at the draft table.
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