Game, set (shot) and match
Garry Lyon | June 03, 2008
HOW much stock do we put in a player's ability to convert goalscoring opportunities when assessing their game performance?
Or asseing their performance during their career?
Not enough.
In the context of a team sport, the spotlight on this fundamental element is never felt as severely as it should be.
Brad Johnson misses a set shot for goal, after the siren, from 35m out, that costs his side four points.
Fast-forward a week and the Bulldogs would be sitting clear on top of the ladder if Johnson performed the role for which he is paid handsomely.
Who knows what the ramifications of that miss will be in 12 weeks when positions are finalised for September?
Is it too harsh to burden the Bulldogs skipper, an undeniable superstar, with that sort of responsibility?
In the past I would have said yes, and typically the coach and his teammates responded by spreading the blame rather than focus on one act.
But it's time to turn up the heat on those who fail football's most basic exam - converting a set shot into six points.
Johnno was still named in the best players for the Dogs, despite hitting the post with another set shot, and with a snap from 5m out, both in the last quarter. Hell, we're a forgiving lot.
I have been a great supporter of Matthew Pavlich, but his three set-shot misses in the last quarter of tight games against Geelong, Carlton and again on Sunday against Port Adelaide demand he be held accountable.
His conversion rate for set shots is 58.8 per cent, below the league average of 61.8 per cent. That is not acceptable for a player that I have continually rated in the best half a dozen in the league.
Perhaps even more damning is that as captain of the side that has led teams into the final quarter for the past five weeks, only to be overrun, Pavlich's conversion rate from set shots drops to 50 per cent after three-quarter time.
It is only one aspect of the game, and there is no denying he performs well above average in most others, but that is not the point.
There is a saying in golf that you "drive for show, and putt for dough". Right now, Pavlich can't putt.
If the All-Australian team was announced today, Bulldog Robert Murphy would be picked ahead of Pavlich on his ability to convert set shots at goal.
Quite simply, if there was a line-ball call to be made for a forward in such a team, converting set shots should be the defining criteria.
Murphy has kicked 13.2 from set shots - a conversion rate of 86.7 per cent.
We all love to play the "who's best" game in football. The title of best mark, most courageous, quickest hands, best kick; they all fuel debate in every pub, club, school and workplace around the country.
Bulldog Adam Cooney's name has been raised for the first time in relation to the best player argument. It's great recognition, but he's a fair way off being the main man in the eyes of many football followers.
But consider this: he has had 17 shots at goal this year and kicked 16.1, including a 100 per cent conversion rate from set shots.
In fact, the Dogs are the third best set-shot team, with Cooney (first at 100 per cent), Murphy (fourth at 86.7 per cent) and Jason Akermanis (eighth at 76.5 per cent) all in the top 10 players in the competition.
It goes some way to explaining their terrific start to the season.
Buddy Franklin is the player that most settle for as the No. 1 in the comp, if not Gary Ablett.
I am as enamored with Buddy as the next man, but if I am to place a newfound emphasis on set shots he can't be No. 1.
He has had 52 set shots this year and has converted just 31 of them, at a rate of 59.6 per cent.
He is still young, and he takes a phenomenal amount of shots at goal, which gives him more chances to miss. But he has to improve if he is to scale the heights of football superstardom.
Having nine and 10 shots at goal, on the surface, appears a great effort, but only if he can convert at about 70 per cent. One goal and seven behinds, or even 3.5, as harsh as it sounds, must be viewed as a failure.
It is the flaw that can hold great players back from becoming legends.
I am regularly berated because I rate Matthew Richardson one rung below the highest status a player can reach, purely because he has not been a great converter. Nick Riewoldt will fall into the same category if he doesn't get on top of his problems soon.
We have been too accepting of the fact that, while almost every other facet of the game has improved beyond recognition, arguably the most important has gone backwards in the past 10 years.
Set-shot accuracy across the competition in 1999 was 63.2 per cent, it's 61.8 per cent this year.
Young players need to be aware that recruiters now take into account ability to convert under pressure. It may be the difference between being picked in a draft or not.
Is it any coincidence that the worst converting team is on the bottom of the ladder? Goals are hard to come by for the Demons, and they need to be able to take every chance that comes their way.
They're not, and they are suffering.
The reputations of players who fail to convert will also suffer.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,23801311-19742,00.html
