Finals on the line for flat-footed TigersThursday, May 01, 2014
Source: SportsFan
Author: Adam JonesThe blossoming 2014 AFL season has already thrown up a few surprises, but none quite as big as Richmond's dive from premiership contender to mid-table battler.
Prior to round one, we tipped Richmond to finish fourth on the ladder on the basis that their list was hitting its prime and their draw was among the easiest. At the time we wrote:
"There's really no conceivable way the Tigers can screw this up."But of course, they could and have. With only two wins on the board after six games, Richmond now face an uphill battle just to remain in contention for finals. Barring a dramatic turnaround in fortunes, their top-four chances are already mortally wounded.
The Tigers' season might as well be on the line against Geelong this Sunday. A win over the Cats will give them some desperately needed belief heading into the bye, plus the opportunity to build up some steam with victories over Melbourne and GWS in the rounds beyond.
But another loss will drop the Tigers to 2-5, from which point a top-eight finish is historically unlikely. In the past 15 years such a feat has been performed just once – by West Coast. The Eagles started the 2004 season with five losses from seven games, a stretch that included a season-ending knee injury to Michael Gardiner (All Australian the previous year) and the sudden retirement of champion stuff Glen Jakovich. Then they went on a tear, winning 11 of their next 15 games to scrape into seventh spot after 22 rounds.
The fact that three of those early-season losses were by 10 points or fewer should not be lost by hopeful Richmond supporters. Nor that the Eagles turned their season around with the help of the Brownlow Medallist, Chris Judd, whose rise to greatness began in the second half of that year.
From their four defeats, Richmond can write off the one narrow loss to the Bulldogs. The other three have come at an average of 40.6 points. The Tigers don't appear to have a Brownlow Medallist in their midst just yet, nor any player making the selectors regret last year's All Australian snub.
What the Tigers do have is room for improvement, and plenty of it. Their brand of football has drifted alarmingly since the famous loss to Carlton in last year's elimination final, with the midfield the chief area of concern for Damien Hardwick and his assistant coaches.
Critically, Richmond's contested ball use has dropped away. The Tigers ranked third in the AFL for contested possession differential (+7.7) in 2013. From rounds 1-23 they lost the contested possession count just seven times. They've already been on the wrong side of the ledger three times in 2014, and their differential (-2.7) has dived from third to 11th overall. Against Hawthorn the Tigers reached a nadir, managing just 118 contested possessions (their lowest in nearly three years).
Richmond's midfield is taking the game on in the ball-ups, winning more stoppages this year than last and leading the league in clearances, but disposal errors are hurting them on the way back. The Tigers outscored their opponents in turnovers by an average of 4.0 points last season. The turnaround this year has been stark – even in a 43-point win over the Lions, Richmond were still outscored 5.3 (33) to 4.8 (32) in turnovers. In a two-point loss to the Dogs the Tigers conceded 10.6 (66) in scores from turnovers, almost three goals fewer than they managed to inflict the other way.
After the loss to Hawthorn, Hardwick alluded to the loss of Brett Deledio, Alex Rance and Ivan Maric (underrated for his ability to launch clearances and initiate scoring chains) as a cause for Richmond's poor start. Criticism of the remark has struck us as slightly unfair. The "schoolboy" skill errors Hardwick singled out might not disappear with the trio back in the side, but there's no argument that the Tigers are a better team with their No.1 ruckman, their No.1 defender and a midfielder who is, at the very least, the equal of Trent Cotchin.
The scope for improvement is not just limited to players soon to return. Some important contributors - Dustin Martin, Daniel Jackson and Bachar Houli spring to mind – are capable of better than they have produced lately. The upside in younger players like Brandon Ellis, Nick Vlastuin and Reece Conca does not disappear overnight, and even Cotchin is not playing to his absolute best.
When all of these players click, the Tigers will start stringing together the kind of attacking football that made them so enjoyable to watch last year. The season might be beyond saving by that point, however.
http://www.sportsfan.com.au/finals-on-the-line-for-flat-footed-tigers/tabid/91/newsid/130017/default.aspx
