The Richmond six who could hold the Tigers back (The Age)

[Hard Roar Tiger]

Richmond's hopes of a breakthrough finals win - and even a premiership - hinge on improving their depth, with official data showing their bottom-tier players have the fifth-worst rating of any side.

In a year where coach Damien Hardwick will have to prove he deserves a contract extension, much could depend on the development of players such as Kamdyn McIntosh, Taylor Hunt, Dylan Grimes, Sam Lloyd, Jake Batchelor and Ben Griffiths. Analysis by the AFL's official statisticians, Champion Data, said the six players were ranked 17-22 at the club.

"These six players have the fifth-worst rating, wedged right in between Melbourne and Gold Coast. The only four teams ranking worse for this measure all finished in the bottom four of the ladder last year," the report said.

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The bottom four clubs last season were Essendon, Gold Coast, Brisbane and Carlton.

In their 2016 prospectus, Champion Data ranked Ben Lennon and Steve Morris outside the Tigers' best 22.

Midfielder McIntosh, midfielder-tagger Taylor Hunt, defenders Grimes and Batchelor and forward Griffiths were ranked "below average", while Lloyd, a forward, was ranked "average".

In deeper analysis, it was found "the Tigers' bottom five players all rate well below the AFL average compared to everyone else's bottom five players".

"It's an area that requires improvement. Compare [last] year's grand finalists, Hawthorn and West Coast, and they don't have one player in their best 22 to rate below the AFL average," the prospectus said.

Below average is classified as being in the bottom 35 per cent of that particular position in the league.

Griffiths and Reece Conca were surprise inclusions in last year's elimination final against North Melbourne, replacing Lloyd and Lennon.

However, the Tigers do boast four "elite" players, while their top eight players combine for the fourth-best rating, behind only Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney.

Key forward Jack Riewoldt, defender Alex Rance, half-forward Brett Deledio and midfielder-forward Shane Edwards were ranked "elite", while the top eight included the "above average" Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Anthony Miles and ruckman Ivan Maric.

A player is considered elite if ranked in the top 10 of that position.

The analysis said "there are 10 other teams in the league desperate to have the Tigers' problem".

"They have superstars, that's rare. Now they need to find and develop depth players to bridge the gap."

Former Carlton defender Chris Yarran will help add depth and potency, for he was ranked above average.

Another area the Tigers may need improvement is in their ability to kick goals. Their slower but more precise ball movement last season, largely introduced from round seven, contributed to an average of only 89 points a game from that moment, and 87.7 overall for the season  - the 10th-best return.

While the Tigers did boast the third-tightest defence, conceding only 71.3 points a game, Champion Data points out 15 of the past 16 premiers have scored more than 100 points a game on average.

The Hawks and West Coast, grand finalists last season, each averaged more than 100 points.

Hardwick, who has overseen a complete rebuild since 2010 but has lost three straight elimination finals, could be made to sweat for a new contract.

The Tigers have preached stability under chief executive Brendon Gale and president Peggy O'Neal, but supporters were stung by last year's loss to the Kangaroos, when selection and game-day tactics were questioned.

Gale said on Monday Hardwick had "enormous upside" and the club had "enormous faith" in him but would not be drawn on when a call would be made. Hardwick's immediate future is expected to be a talking point at the Tigers' February board meeting.

The Tigers do not expect media scrutiny and public speculation to impact on Hardwick's focus.

CHAMPION DATA RANKINGS

Elite (top 10 per cent in that position in the league): Brett Deledio, Jack Riewoldt, Shane Edwards, Alex Rance

Above average (top 35 per cent): Ivan Maric, Trent Cotchin, Bachar Houli, Dustin Martin, Chris Yarran, Ty Vickery, Nick Vlastuin, Anthony Miles

Average (middle 30 per cent): Troy Chaplin, Shaun Grigg, Brandon Ellis, Reece Conca, Sam Lloyd, Kane Lambert

Below average (bottom 35 per cent): Taylor Hunt, Steven Morris, Shaun Hampson, Jake Batchelor, Dylan Grimes, Ben Griffiths, David Astbury, Kamdyn McIntosh, Ben Lennon

Source: Champion Data AFL Prospectus 2016. Available now.

http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2016-the-richmond-six-who-could-hold-the-tigers-back-20160201-gmipxx.html

[(•))(©™]

It's true.
You're on,y as good as your bottom 8

[Diocletian]

The spuds in the "average" category are nearly all just as bad as those in the "below average" category -and none bar Lambert have the excuses of either still being kids like Lennon or new to senior AFL football like McIntosh. Therein lies the real problem.

[Tigeritis™©®]

I was surprised to see that Chaplin wasn't in the below average category.

[Stalin]

Lies
Dam lies
And stats

[lamington]

I thought Kamdyn actually did OK in his first year. Also I know it's based on champion stats but calling Lennon below average is a bit rough. HE ONLY PLAYED 9 GAMES!!! He kicked 2 goals against Freo in rnd 17.  Yes he didn't play well in rnd 23 but the whole team was spudding it up until Deledio ignited the team in the 3rd quarter anyway

[Stalin]

Geez Geez it was hi third year

[Stalin]

If you want to buy into the data;

The average group contains conca and b Ellis who are both flawed but have upside. Potentially given the age

Lloyd and lambert were both speculative picks with low draft choices

The remaining is the 28 and 30 yoa list blocker-hacks with no upside

[🏅Dooks]

If you want to buy into the data;

The average group contains conca and b Ellis who are both flawed but have upside. Potentially given the age

Lloyd and lambert were both speculative picks with low draft choices

The remaining is the 28 and 30 yoa list blocker-hacks with no upside

What's this 'upside' for Conca that you speak of? his trophies from eating contests?

[Stalin]

It is possible for a 23 year old to unproven at football

If it will happen or not in this case who knows

[RedanTiger]

Below average.
Would hope that McIntosh and Lennon will improve with more senior experience.
Astbury, Griffith and Grimes will get better with more consistent game time after overcoming some longer term injuries.
Hampson too hopefully after his turbulent personal life and injury.
Batchelor, Morris and Hunt are the main worries since you would expect they have just about peaked.

The upside is that Gordon can be an alternative if Lennon fails.
Broad and Menadue are options to replace Batchelor, both with better pace. Broad also has more height. Menadue with more skill.
Morris can be replaced by Corey Ellis who already shows more skill, pace and decision-making.
Hunt is likely to be replaced by Drummond as soon as he is back to full health after his knee injury and some game time.

So over all that's not too bad. Six of the nine should improve with more game time (after injury or drafting), with the other three able to be replaced off the existing list.

Average
Conca is getting close to being a washout IMO. He really needs a big year.
Lloyd and Lambert are still works-in-progress and while we hope they produce consistently the door is still open.
Ellis needs to get back to his form of 2014 and we hope that last year was just the common blip of a young players form line.
Grigg and Chaplin are what they are - reasonably solid players who won't get much better but can gain more consistency. They both probably give us about six to eight games a year when they are very good and help us get over the line. They also give us about the same number of games when they have little to no influence. They also give us about 3 or 4 games when they are absolute liabilities. We probably won't get rid of the dreadful games but one can hope for more influence when they are having a "nothing" day.

Conca can (and probably will) be replaced by Townsend at an early stage given his AFL experience. He shows more physical ability and the question will be whether he has the smarts and skills like Miles.
LLoyd and Lambert are interesting cases since they are expected to be midfielders who can also play as pure small forwards. If either drops off in form then we have the replacements coming through in Butler and Short. While these two haven't got senior experience, they have got rave reviews from VFL games.

So of the six in this group we have two (Chaplin and Grigg) that need to raise their bottom line performance. Ellis who should get back on track. Conca can be replaced by Townsend. Lloyd and Lambert have Butler and Short as options.

Maybe I'm just kidding myself but I think we have a pretty sound list ATM given no serious injury, continued injury recovery and natural improvement.
These lists based on stats really don't tell much of a story since they seriously discount new or injured players. They are based on the past.