RED-TIME DIFFERENTIALS: WHICH CLUBS SCORE AND CONCEDE THE MOST LATE IN QUARTERS?By Andrew Slevison
SEN
4 May 2022Richmond piled on the highest score of the 2022 season when kicking 25.15.(165) against West Coast last Friday night.
In the process, they also produced the most fruitful ‘red-time’ windfall of the season, kicking 13.4.(82) from the 20-minute mark on across the four quarters. In that time they conceded just 3.3.(21) for a handy differential of +61.
It leaves their red-time numbers in a good position, but they have been somewhat distorted by the Round 7 procession.
The Tigers sat 10th with a -8 differential the week prior having coughed up late goals in a number of their matches. Damien Harwick’s side now holds the fifth best red-time differential of +53 after towelling up the Eagles in Perth.
But this is just one anomaly where the numbers may read better than it appears for a certain club.
It is an interesting undertaking to look at the clubs who perform well late in quarters and which teams concede goals at crucial junctures.
As expected, reigning premier Melbourne sits atop the red-time differential ladder with a +89 return having scored 241 points when a quarter enters red-time.
They are marginally ahead of Fremantle on +87.
Justin Longmuir’s robust system is clearly holding up, evidenced by their 6-1 record and the fact they’ve only conceded 135 points in red-time at an average of 19.2 points per game. Measly.
Brett Ratten’s St Kilda has also been stingy late in quarters, conceding only one point more than the Dockers.
The Saints (+79), Geelong (+61), Richmond (+49), the Western Bulldogs (+45) and Sydney (+40) - who has scored the most in this time (252) - all have handy red-time advantages.
Strangely, despite having a 2-5 record, Port Adelaide (+31) has also outperformed their opponents late in quarters.
Collingwood (234 points) and second-placed Brisbane (236) both score fairly solidly in red-time, but also concede at the business end of a stanza to hold +19 and +2 differentials.
The worst side in the competition is the Eagles who have coughed up a massive 298 points at 42.5 per game after the 20-minute mark for a paltry deficit of -118.
Not far behind them is North Melbourne, scoring the least (141) in this time to be -110 in the hole.
Interestingly, sixth-placed Carlton find themselves with a -53 points return, suggesting that Michael Voss’ side needs to tighten up to avoid run-ons late in quarters.
Essendon (-40), Hawthorn (-56), Adelaide (-62) and GWS (-65) are the remaining clubs with negative returns on red-time scoring.
Looking at this overall, there is a direct correlation with teams who have the ability to score late in quarters and ladder positions.
The Demons (1st), Dockers (3rd), Saints (4th), Swans (5th), Cats (7th), Tigers (9th) and Dogs (10th) are all well ahead in their late-quarter scoring pursuits, while the Lions (2nd) and Magpies (8th) are marginally in front.
From the Hawks (11th) down, Power aside, it’s all negatives.
Make of it what you will.
See the numbers below:
The totals are points scored and conceded from the 20-minute mark of quarters.
Note: This season, we’ve witnessed just one goalless red-time block with Port Adelaide’s narrow win over St Kilda in Cairns last Saturday night returning a total of zero goals and 13 behinds.
Further note: The club that has the highest percentage of its total season score in red-time is West Coast, strangely enough. The Eagles have scored 43% of their 420 points after the 20-minute mark, ahead of Essendon (42%) and Port Adelaide (41%). Carlton has scored just 26% of its 609 total for points in red-time. Brisbane has conceded 44% of its total against score (532) in red-time, the most in the league.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/05/04/red-time-differentials-which-clubs-score-and-concede-the-most-late-in/
