Our Run Home: How many games will we win?

[one-eyed]

In the past 4 years we've won 31 out of 36 on the run home after Round 12:


Source: https://www.afl.com.au/video/628003/carlton-headed-nowhere-two-dees-applying-for-one-job


How many games will we win on the run home this year?

R13 vs West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R15 vs St Kilda
R16 vs Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R17 vs Collingwood
R18 vs Brisbane
R19 vs Geelong
R20 vs Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21 vs North Melbourne
R22 vs GWS Giants @ Giants Stadium
R23 vs Hawthorn

nb. all non-venue listed matches scheduled at the MCG but may or may not change.

[Tiger Khosh]

7-3 would be hopefully the worst case which would likely place us 7/8th
8-2 would likely get us 5-6th
9-1 would likely get us 3-4th
10-0 we’d finish second I’d say.

[Rampsation]

9 wins from that lot

[Andyy]

At least 7. Hopefully 8-9

[Knighter]

We'll win all 10.  We don't lose after the Bye.

[Francois Jackson]

its a 9 for me.

[WilliamPowell]

8 maybe 9

[one-eyed]

From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:


IF ... a 7-6 scoreline would normally be a worry for a premiership-contending team entering the bye period ...

THEN ... for the Tigers, it ain't a worry. They're the Tigers. And with the dreadful Saints up next, followed by the equally ordinary Gold Coast and battling Collingwood, no reason to think there won’t be a 10-6 scoreline going into a massive round 18 match against Brisbane.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/632064/sliding-doors-if-there-was-one-thing-the-teague-train-needed-ahead-of-the-independent-review-then

[one-eyed]

The Run Home after Round 14

Max Laughton
Foxsports
20 June 2021

8. RICHMOND (7-6, 105.3%)

Remaining games:

Round 15: St Kilda at MCG
Round 16: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Round 17: Collingwood at MCG
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 57%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 18th-hardest (easiest)

This kind fixture, which features six of nine games at the MCG and just two meetings with fellow members of the top eight, is why so many have kept faith in Richmond despite them being 1-6 against the top eight. The Tigers should realistically be favoured in all but two, or maybe three games (depending on how GWS is travelling by Round 22).

The problem is the gap between them and the top four; they’re realistically three games back, because their percentage is so much lower than every member of the top five. They are very unlikely to pass both Brisbane and Port on percentage AND wins, which is their easiest path to fourth.

All of this means the Tigers are in a worse situation than in 2019, when after 14 rounds, they were two games out with percentage less of an issue (7-6 92%, with West Coast at 9-4 106.2% in fourth).

In 2019, they won all nine of their remaining matches and finished third; but if they’d lost just one, they would’ve likely finished fifth. They had to be perfect, and they were - but repeating perfection is very difficult. And it’s very hard to win the flag from outside of the top four.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.65 projected wins, finishing seventh




PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Melbourne (16.4 projected wins)
2. W.Bulldogs (15.9)
3. Geelong (15.85)
4. Brisbane (14.8 )
5. Port Adelaide (14.25)
6. West Coast (13.1)
7. Richmond (12.65)
8. Sydney  (12.6)
-----------------------------
9. GWS Giants (10.9)
10. Essendon (10.5)
11. Fremantle (10.2)
12. Adelaide (8.85)
13. Carlton (8.5)
14. St Kilda (8.35)
15. Collingwood (8 )
16. Gold Coast (7.35)
17. Hawthorn (5.9)
18. North Melbourne (3.9)


PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Port Adelaide vs Sydney Swans

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): West Coast Eagles vs Richmond

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-14-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-afl-finals-fixture/news-story/de46d0762cca975dd450e0666af78844

[georgies31]

We need to start from this week and win well don't look to far ahead.

[Gracie]

Yes just look after what we can control. Biggest thing is we need to kick into a more high quality output mode and minimise the simple errors.

[one-eyed]

This site predicts us with finish with 14 wins and in Seventh spot.

They are tipping us to win every game bar against Brisbane and Geelong. So that's 7-2 on the run home.

---------------------------------------------------------

Why the top eight is far from set

We’ve predicted every result left in the 2021 season, with a mouth-watering finals series lined up as a result.

By Cameron Kellaghan-Tasker
zerohanger.com
June 21, 2021

Ladder Result

After completing my ladder predictor, it is likely that the top eight is in fact not set. I have the current 9th placed Giants leap frogging their way into the eight at the expense of their cross town rivals Sydney who face a tough run home.



At the completion of the season, there will be some exciting first round matchups to start the 2021 finals series:

Qualifying Final 1: Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons

Qualifying Final 2: Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats

Elimination Final 1: West Coast Eagles vs GWS Giants

Elimination Final 2: Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers

Full article including round by round prediction summary: https://www.zerohanger.com/why-the-top-eight-is-far-from-set-85600/

[one-eyed]

Media running with us having the easiest draw on the run home with 6 of our final 9 games at the MCG.



Waits for K.Cornes to have another sook 

[Andyy]

Playing Port in SA or Eagles in WA for an elimination final would be rough. But we've done it before!

[one-eyed]

RUN TO FINALS: Tigers primed to charge

Champion Data's analysis of the last nine rounds has a clear message - beware the two-time reigning premiers

By Riley Beveridge
afl.com.au
24 June 2021

With key senior players like Dion Prestia, David Astbury, Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis on the cusp of returning from injury, the Tigers will also be boosted by the easiest run-in of any side in the competition over the next nine weeks.

According to Champion Data's strength of schedule statistics, Richmond's remaining fixture after its bye week is 7.4 points per game easier than the AFL average – clearly the most routine of any team in the League.

The Tigers play just two top-eight sides for the remainder of the year – Brisbane and Geelong in successive weeks in July – while the reigning premiers also enjoy six of their final nine matches at the MCG.

It's a timely run-in for Richmond, which had its advantage inside the AFL's top eight slashed to just two points by Greater Western Sydney last Saturday night. The Tigers remain two games, plus percentage, from securing a double-chance inside the top four.

HOW HARD IS YOUR TEAM'S RUN HOME?

CLUB        FIXTURE DIFFICULTY (R15-23)    RANK

Hawthorn              +7.0                               1
St Kilda                 +5.4                               2
North Melbourne    +4.1                               3
Gold Coast Suns    +3.8                               4
GWS Giants          +3.5                               5
Melbourne            +3.4                               6
Adelaide Crows     +3.3                               7
Essendon             +0.5                               8
Fremantle            +0.2                               9
Collingwood          -0.5                              10
West Coast Eagles -0.9                              11
Port Adelaide         -1.3                             12
Sydney Swans       -2.7                             13
Western Bulldogs   -3.1                             14
Geelong Cats         -3.2                             15
Brisbane Lions       -5.1                             16
Carlton                 -7.1                              17
Richmond             -7.4                              18

* Ranking indicates hardest-to-easiest.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/634933/run-to-finals-tigers-primed-to-charge-but-who-s-got-it-toughest