Our Run Home: How many games will we win?

[Francois Jackson]

Every week seems to be one more roll of the dice.

Truth is it actually still is. One game out of the 8 and I really believe we are one win away from a consecutive run of wins.

That said if we can't beat the suns we won't be beating the lions or cats.

[Andyy]

I don't think we could beat North at the moment. Not with what were dishing up.

[one-eyed]

Foxsports has us vying with Essendon for 8th spot based on percentage. So they have us finishing 9th.

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

In order of projected wins, not adjusted for percentage

1. Melbourne (16.45 projected wins)
2. Geelong Cats (16.3)
3. Western Bulldogs (16.25)
4. Port Adelaide (14.95)
5. Brisbane Lions (14.3)
6. Sydney Swans (13.95)
7. West Coast Eagles (11.4)
8. Richmond (10.75)
--------------------------------
9. Essendon (10.65)
10. St Kilda (10.3)
11. Fremantle (10.25)
12. GWS Giants (9.75)
13. Carlton (9.5)

Essendon and Richmond are the leading contenders to finish eighth... so do you trust recent strong form, or three flags in four years?


9. RICHMOND (8-9, 100.8%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 21%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 15th-hardest

And suddenly the rest of the top eight felt a chill in the air. The Tigers... they’re coming.

The team no-one wants to play if they sneak into the eight has a real chance of doing so after knocking off Brisbane. Unless Freo or St Kilda really gets on a roll, we think it’s probably between Essendon and Richmond for eighth.

But while the Tigers have an easier draw, we’d just like to see a little bit more before declaring they’re fully back.

For a start, they’re running into a pretty scary-looking Geelong next week... and they won’t have Dustin Martin for the rest of the year, which really hurts - especially against the Cats who never seem to know how to stop him.

Richmond clearly has the stronger track record, but ever since they actually beat Essendon, who’s been the better team? We’d argue Essendon.

If the Tigers are 8-10, and needing an almost flawless month to get to 12 wins and play finals... they can do it. They’ll be favourites in their last four games - but we’ve seen this story before.

Remember when they went from 3-10 to a finals berth in 2014? And faced Port Adelaide in the elimination final? And kicked into the wind, and got blown out because they’d been playing mini-finals every week for two months?

We reckon Port might finish fifth again. So...

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.75 wins, finishing ninth (on percentage)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-18-afl-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-afl-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/50501c09bbf29c13e6f472ee13fb1f66

[one-eyed]

Just half a win separates 8th to 12th with only four rounds to go.

8. GWS           34    96.6  .............  Port (H?), Geel (A), Rich (H?), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Essendon    32   103.4  .............  Syd (H), Dogs (A),  GC (A),   Coll (H)

10. Richmond  32    98.2  .............   Freo (A), NM (H), GWS (A?), Haw (H)

11. Fremantle  32    90.3  .............   Rich (H), Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)

12. St Kilda     32    86.9  ..............  Carl (H), Syd (A?), Geel (A), Freo (H)

13. Carlton      28    91.9  .............. StK (A),  GC (H),  Port (A), GWS (H)


The question is how many can we win on current 'form' and will we make it?

[Tiger Khosh]

We have a much easier run than the other teams contending. Would be favs for all remaining games which would almost certainly secure 8th spot but then again we were favs against Collingwood, Gold Coast and the saints…..

[MintOnLamb]

Unfortunately…..I don’t think it matters.

[Tigeritis™©®]

0

Cotton wool all our senior players for the remainder of the season. Surgeries or whatever now.

Nank. Cotchin. Reiwoldt. Edwards. Prestia. Grimes. Vlaustin. Astbury. Martin. etc

Play the kids! Prepare for next season.

[Tiger Khosh]

We have a flag to defend, least we can do is qualify for finals.

Qualify for finals, get 6+ senior players back from injury and who knows. Gotta be in it to win it!

[one-eyed]

Richmond's finals chances are hanging by a thread. However, in better news for the reigning premiers, a rather soft run home lies in wait. The club won't face another top-six side for the remainder of the year, though will endure two difficult road trips against Fremantle and Greater Western Sydney. If it can split those – and beat the lowly North Melbourne and Hawthorn on its home deck at the MCG – the Tigers will still be a fighting chance to make September. Never rule them out. - Riley Beveridge

https://www.afl.com.au/news/651474/the-run-home-sore-eagles-stay-alive-can-tigers-pull-off-a-miracle-

[one-eyed]

Foxsports has us finishing 8th.


10. RICHMOND (8-10, 98.2%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 8%


Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

The Giants could still ruin Richnond’s party in Round 22, but for now, Damien Hardwick must be thrilled.

GWS’ win over Essendon means the Tigers are the favourites to finish eighth. After all, the Giants’ run home is pretty brutal and we expect them to slip up again; it’s much easier for the Tigers to catch them and it would’ve been to catch a victorious Bombers side, who would’ve been a game and percentage ahead.

While none of their remaining games are stone cold locks, we’d either favour the Tigers to win or have them 50-50 in all four. They have the clearest path to 12 wins, and 12 wins will be enough this year, we’re 99 per cent certain of that.

If the Tigers can only win 11, they need to hope the Bombers (to Sydney and the Bulldogs?) and the Giants (to the Tigers and Geelong?) both slip up twice. That seems entirely reasonable.

But losing to Fremantle this week would hurt because that’d keep the Dockers in the mix.

Let’s get that win on the board before locking the Tigers into eighth.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.35 wins, finishing eighth


PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

In order of projected wins

1. Western Bulldogs (16.75 projected wins)
2. Geelong Cats (16.7)
3. Melbourne (15.95)
4. Port Adelaide (15.25
5. Brisbane Lions (14.6)
6. Sydney Swans (14.4)
7. West Coast Eagles (11.85)
8. Richmond (10.35)
-------------------------------
9. GWS Giants (10.3)
10. Essendon (10)
11. Fremantle (9.85)
12. St Kilda (9.85)
13. Carlton (8.8 )
14. Gold Coast Suns (7.5)
15. Adelaide Crows (7.25)
16. Collingwood (6.75)
17. North Melbourne (6.05)
18. Hawthorn (5.8 )

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Brisbane Lions vs Richmond

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs West Coast Eagles

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Geelong Cats vs Melbourne

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-19-afl-analysis-predicted-final-ladder-top-eight-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/12493de221c1590c2e24c5a354cea895

[one-eyed]

10. RICHMOND ..... 32 pts 98.2%

RUN HOME: Fremantle (A), North Melbourne (H), Greater Western Sydney (A), Hawthorn (H)

WE SAY: The Tigers continue to back their system and believe they can do damage in September - should they get there. They won’t face a top-six side again but the Dockers, despite losing key players, will be tough at home and the Kangaroos have rebounded since the bye. The clash against the Giants will be critical. Dustin Martin is gone but there is still enough talent to slip into September.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/run-home-to-the-afl-finals-the-race-for-the-eight-heats-up-20210727-p58ddy.html

[one-eyed]

After tonight's result now only half a win separates 8th to 13th.

8. GWS           34    96.6  .............  Port (N), Geel (A), Rich (H?), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Essendon    32   103.4  .............  Syd (N), Dogs (A),  GC (A),   Coll (H)

10. Richmond  32    98.2  .............   Freo (A), NM (H), GWS (A?), Haw (H)

11. Carlton      32    94.1  .............. StK (A),  GC (H),  Port (A), GWS (H)

12. Fremantle  32    90.3  .............   Rich (H), Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)

13. St Kilda     32    85.9  .............. Carl (H), Syd (A?), Geel (A), Freo (H)

[Diocletian]

As long as the Bumblers don't make it I don't care anymore....

[The Machine]

The way we are playing and the selection of players will see us not win another game this year.

[mightytiges]

Can't see us winning another game for the season (beat me too it Machine). The fight, desperation, want and belief just isn't there.

All those teams including the Eagles are just making up the numbers. Should really only be a top 6 this year.

Both WA teams can thank us and our own stupid hackness in the last 10 mins for them both being in the top 8  .