This result proves to all that unless your name is Bob Hawke, Labor aren't any good at running government longer than 3 years! Their history speaks loud and clear.
After a landslide victory in 2007 when we all were hopeful that Rudd could make a real difference he was shafted by his own party revealing to all that Labor can't be trusted to govern with a mandate from the Australian public. It shows that Labor are a fractured, unstable organisation with too many hidden agendas and too many heads trying to drive a ship. Problem is that with a constitution that has a 40/40/20 rule that is discrimminatory and is un Australian, the party members are unable to work together or trust one another. Therefore the ship will always sink
A great example of this was Maxine McKew who was a strong supporter of Kevin '07. In her own words she was "factionless" and was therefore NOT supported by Julia's growing faction The Emily's list. Not even a train line could save her in the end.
In conclusion
Luke 11:17
Geez knew their thoughts and said to them: "Any kingdom divided against itself will be ruined, and a house divided against itself will fall.
John Curtin was such a disaster of a Labor PM wasn't he leading the country through WWII before he died in office . You might also want to check your Australian history of the Gorton/McMahon period if you want to see unstable government in self destruct mode - Malcolm Fraser openingly bagged his own PM John Gorton; Gorton is then challenged by Billy MacMahon but the leadership vote ended up a tie so by Liberal party rules Gorton had to step down; Gorton then runs for and wins the deputy leadership forcing McMahon to make Gorton his defence minister; McMahon then sacks Gorton for disloyalty. Then we had the split in the Libs in 1977 when Don Chipp broke away to form the Democrats. 1968-1982 was a shambles for Australia politically and economically from both sides. Both parties have had major implosions in our history (ALP-DLP split in 1954 was the biggest on the Labor side) and to think otherwise is just showing blatant bias.
If you believe there are no factions in the Liberal party then you're living in la la land. Abbott won the Liberal party leadership by ONE vote over Turnbull. The Liberal party is split between hardcore conservative and moderate small "l" liberal factions just as the ALP is split between left and right wing factions. With the massive egos in politics on all sides there is always someone waiting to knife their own or opponent to jump up the political ladder.
comparing the liberal democratic process of voting in a leader to the ALP system of knifing is laughable just read their constitution and you will see all the "hidden" rules regarding factions. There is absolutely nothing in the liberal party constitution that accounts for factions at all.
The 40/40/20 affirmative action rule is a joke and anyone with eyes can read that garbage.
There may be differences in party politics but as the Abbott and Turnbull experience showed, when the party is ALLOWED TO VOTE democracy wins because ALL have a say.
It's likely that the faceless MAFIA men behind the ALP will probably make an offer the independants can't refuse.
As I said anyone who doesn't believe the Liberal Party have factions of hardline conservatives (Howard, Abbott, etc) and moderate small "l" liberals (Costello, Turnbull, etc) is living in la la land.
The Liberal party have gone through 3 opposition leaders in 3 years. They aren't bad at knifing each other themselves. Both sides are ruthless. Both parties have leadership ballots unless the incumbant realises he/she doesn't have the numbers and doesn't contest the ballot allowing the challenger to take the reigns uncontested.
On the independants it's most likely you will all have your way and the Gillard government will be returned despite MORE people voting for liberal in Australia than the ALP.
The ALP as a single party got more primary votes than any other party. It isn't a fragmented coalition of Libs, Nats, LNP (Qld), CLP, WA Nats needing to add their votes together because none on their own can match Labor.
In any case our electoral system in the lower house doesn't work by first past the post and nor should it. Why should someone with a minority of 40% of the vote be elected if the other 60% majority dislike this candidate and prefer someone else in be it their first or second choice candidate. That's why we have preferential voting.
On two party preferred Labor has the most votes nationwide.
Australian Labor Party 5,063,869 50.66%
Liberal/National Coalition 4,932,436 49.34%
Out of interest the Labor also has more seats in 4 of the 6 states including the two most populus NSW and Vic. Not relevant to who wins though.
At the end of the day it is who can win or collect the majority of seats in the lower house that wins power. At the moment
Australian Labor Party 72 (73)
Liberal/National Coalition 70 (73)
Greens 1 (1)
Independents 3 (3)
Doubtful 4
Total 150 (150)
The () are the most likely seat numbers when the counting is finally finished but that's still up in the air and could change with pre-polling and postal votes which make up 15% of the total votes. Still impossible to know who will govern.
Doubtful seats:
Hasluck (WA) - Libs in front by 382 votes but 25% of the votes are pre-polling and postal votes which are yet to be counted so too close to call.
Dunkley (Vic) - Libs in front by 612 votes. Stuff in the counting had 200 Labor votes in the Libs pile. Fixed now so it's now doubtful.
Boothby (SA) - Libs in front by 663 votes. Libs sandbagged this seat (local calling of voters) so will probably hang on although it's classed as doubtful.
Denison (Tas) - ALP in front by 408 votes. Two party preferred has to be recounted given the AEC always puts ALP vs Coalition on election night. This has to be changed to ALP vs Ind. if the Independent (Andrew Wilkie) finishes ahead of the Libs and gains their preferences. At the moment only 28 of the 56 booths have been changed and where the remaining booths come from will determine the winner. North Hobart is Labor heartland whereas as Hobart city is Greens territory.
Scenarios:
If Labor loses Denison then they'll only have 72 seats compared to the Libs 73 if they hold on to their leads in the three other doubtful seats. Labor would then need the one Green MP vote (whose already agreed to support Labor) and 3 of the 4 independents to retain power. The Libs would have 73 seats and would only need 3 of the independents to gain power.
If Labor retains Denison then it'll be 73-all with Labor effectively having 74 with the Green MP. Still could go either way depending on the 3 independents.
If Labor retains Hasluck and Denison then that will effectively rule out a Coalition minority government as they'll only have 72 seats.
It's way way too early to know who will win.
MT, I must commend you on your lengthy answers.
Please answer this questions for me;
what is the total primary vote of the ALP and of the Coalition?
How many votes did Julia win by when she beat Rudd to allow her to become PM?
On the issue of factions.
I must be from La la land as you say because Im positive there are no real factions in the liberal party.
Read the liberal party constitution and tell me where it is written ANY provision for factions. The ALP constitution is wall to wall and jammed full of provision, written to solidify the needs of leading factions within the party.
You keep talking about knifing leadership. Let's talk FACTS here. When Abbott beat Turnbull it was because of a VOTE within the members in the party, If I remember correctly Abbott won by 1 vote.
When Gillard took over the leadership over Rudd it NEVER went to a VOTE from caucus it is now revealed that factional heavy weights made the decision.
Now we learn more from State MP Craig Langford that once again these factions have flexed muscle he couldn't stand it any longer so he's jumped ship 3 months before a state election.
One last question;
Name 1 truly factional men or women or group within the liberal party, dictating constitutional policy, preselection or Platform.
Fact is MT that the ALP is a multi-headed monster without true unity that will always struggle to govern effectively.