Brock McLean and Aaron Davey also out of contract...Shallow draft pool skews trade weekGreg Denham | September 12, 2009 | The Australian
FOR a variety of reasons the AFL's five-day annual player exchange period next month will not be the ho-hum experience it was last year.
Last year's trade week was a fizzer, with just six players changing teams.
With the league's 17th and 18th licences -- Gold Coast and western Sydney -- set to start up with the country's richest young talent over the next few years, last year's trade period resulted in not one club giving up a first-round national draft choice, something that has never happened before.
In fact, only one club, Carlton, gave up a second-round choice, and that was overall pick No 24 to Fremantle for ruckman Robbie Warnock. Five clubs -- Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Melbourne and West Coast -- did nothing.
Less than 12 months on, the promise of excellence in last year's talent pool has been realised, with a majority of the first 35 players selected having proved themselves in their debut season.
The talent ran even deeper into the draft. Pick No 51, Neville Jetta, played 15 pretty good games for Melbourne.
Daniel Kerr, for example, had no hope of being traded out of West Coast because the Eagles demanded two quality first-round picks in return.
Because he was contracted, Kerr was in the wrong place in the wrong year.
Most of the six deals done in 2008 involved bit players -- Warnock, Anthony Corrie, Brent Prismall, Adam Thomson, Rhyce Shaw, and Farren Ray (who could become a premiership player with the Saints in a fortnight). That was the smallest number of deals on record.
It was a far cry from the previous year, when 17 trades involving 20 players were completed, highlighted by Chris Judd, who went from being West Coast's captain to Carlton's on-field leader. He was one of five premiership players to switch clubs.
Trades peaked in 2000, when 33 players switched clubs, and the dwindling number since then has sparked player union calls to hasten the introduction of free agency.
The main reason to expect trading to be more vigorous this year, including more high-calibre trades, is that this year's draft talent pool is shallow, according to recruiting managers.
That is because the draft age has been increased to 18 years. Over the past three years about 35 per cent of players drafted have been 17-year-olds.
Midfielder Tom Scully is the standout teenager this year.
About 12 others are likely to be drafted early, before a sizeable gap to youngsters of lesser ability.
The second tier is likely to include John Butcher, Anthony Morabito, Ben Cunnington, Gary Rohan, Koby Stevens, Jack Trengrove, Luke Tapscott, Dustin Martin, Jessie Chrichton, Kane Lucas, Jake Melksham, and 20-year-old Swan Districts player Lewis Jetta, who has been earmarked by West Coast.
Of the abovementioned, only Butcher is a true key-position player, so clubs needing a key-position player will have to trade or look at mature-age players from other competitions such as the VFL, WAFL and SANFL.
The top 13 or so players in this year's draft are regarded as safe picks, with most of the rest described as speculative.
Clubs that consider themselves in, or about to enter, a premiership window of opportunity over the next four years are less likely to speculate.
Instead, coaches will want to trade ready-made players, especially those with a specific need such as a key-position forward or defender.
That is why the first-round national draft selections of clubs such as Sydney (6), Port Adelaide (
, Hawthorn (9), Carlton (11), and possibly Collingwood and St Kilda, could all be put on the table to strike deals.
Another factor is that a number of clubs are far better placed financially and have room in their salary caps to lure quality players.
The Swans have for a long time tended to trade players for specific needs and they will no doubt do so again this year. Especially considering Sydney will have about $2 million to spare in its cap due to its high-profile player retirements.
Even poverty-stricken Melbourne could take advantage of its recent $1 million windfall from the new AFL agreement with the MCG Trust by boosting its young squad with a quality player from another club.
Cashed-up Hawthorn has a bucket of money to spend on recruiting players to fill certain needs. It has not taken kindly to its fall from grace -- first to ninth in 12 months -- and has feelers out for players.
Port Adelaide's Shaun Burgoyne could be on the move. Melbourne's Aaron Davey remains unsigned and out-of-contract teammate Brock McLean is understood to be tempted to move on.
After several years on a minimal wage, Western Bulldogs full-back Brian Lake is being courted by at least three clubs -- Sydney, Hawthorn and the Demons -- on long-term deals worth up to $500,000 a season.
Expect more high-profile players to come out of the woodwork over the next few weeks.
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