The meat market is about to openJon Ralph | August 15, 2009
IT ALL revolves around a top-10 draft pick Hawthorn never saw coming. Just 10 months on from the club's surprise premiership, it suddenly finds itself with a potential No. 7 draft pick based on its ladder position after Round 19.
The AFL is still eight weeks out from the trade period, and at a stage when we are pondering finals permutations and weighing up premiership contenders.
But struggling clubs - and their increasingly savvy supporters - now look to new opportunities the instant their finals chances become strictly mathematical.
Hawthorn is aware of its key deficiencies and how it might solve them.
Even in the unlikely event it surges into eighth spot, the seed has been planted in the match committee's mind.
Fremantle ruckman Aaron Sandilands is firmly in Hawthorn's sights and as much as the club may subsequently deny it, that No. 7 draft pick could eventually be laid on the negotiating table.
It might take a package involving the pick and a quality player, but the club knows Simon Taylor and Brent Renouf are not the answer to its rucking woes.
Across the AFL, a raft of potential trade targets are already being bandied about, with Barry Hall, Mark Seaby, Luke Ball, Brian Lake,
Jordan McMahon and Sandilands among them.
Adding to the intrigue is a swirling mix of ingredients that player managers hope might become a perfect storm.
Some clubs lacking first-class youngsters will be desperate for first-round draft picks in the last uncompromised draft, and will dish off established players to gain those selections.
And those already with a solid bunch of kids will be prepared to sacrifice their selections and grab established players in the process.
Player manager Liam Pickering, whose IMG stable manages Gary Ablett and Lance Franklin, is optimistic the market could be white-hot this year.
"The discussion usually increases during finals, but I think it's a trade market, personally," Pickering said.
"I think you will find there will be more trades this year than in the last couple of years. The draft is not as strong and there are a lot of 17-year-old kids who are not eligible."
The industry is also holding its breath as it considers the AFL Players' Association's push for free agency, aware it cannot continue to restrain trade.
Last year there were only six trades in the five-day window, in stark contrast to the 19 assistant coaches who swapped clubs.
"When there are more assistant coaches than players who swap clubs, you know the market is pretty skinny," Pickering said.
"Everyone is keeping an eye tracking player movements, and if we have another year of less than 10 trades, the evidence is telling you there isn't enough movement of players."
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