Interesting responses so far.
I think the guy in the gun is Castagna, based purely on the number and quality of the back-ups to his small forward position. His decision making is ropey, and the brilliance of Bolton, Stengle and Higgins makes his position perilous.
To be honest, I'd have McIntosh and Broad not far behind. You can easily make a case for both.
Townsend pretty safe I reckon. Provides a hard contest in the forward line which is a little different to basically all the other forwards. Also, while he appeared to hit a purple patch last year, I think his superb conversion rate when shooting at goal is no mirage. Like Jack Graham, he has a lot of composure when shooting for goal. Both his hardness and composure are very hard attributes to ignore.