ROUND 16 - RICHMOND vs ST KILDA - M.C.G. (Home)SUMMARY:Richmond heads back to the home of football this Saturday afternoon to face St Kilda in a crucial "8 pointer" clash with a spot in finals on the line. A win to the Tigers would see them virtually cement a spot in September given their draw as well as establishing a 2 game break over the Saints who sit just outside the top 8; a loss would see St Kilda leapfrog Richmond by percentage. The Tigers did what they had to do last week against Essendon to win comfortably but a higher standard will be required on Saturday to overcome the Saints who walked all over us back in round 5. Mind you 3 months is a long time in footy and St Kilda have been a shadow of the side that demolished us back in April. One extra piece of motivation for the Tigers is Grant Thomas' remarks after Richmond's last win over the Saints back in 2003 of "we're still the better side". We shall see!
Both sides will be far from their best 22. Richmond of course won't have Brown, Stafford or Kellaway while the Saints will have Riewoldt, Hamill, Harvey and Penny on the sidelines. The Tigers have made two changes this week with Shane Morrison coming in for the injured Kellaway and captain Kane Johnson named in place of young Raines despite being extremely doubtful. The Saints have also made two changes - Guerra and Peckett in for McGough and McQualter.
PAST ENCOUNTERS:Overall: 102-59 (2 draws)
In the 00's: 4-5
At the M.C.G.: 19-5 (2 draws)
Last Time: Round 5, 24.04.05. "Away" at Docklands.
Richmond 3.4 5.8 8.10 11.13-79
St Kilda 8.2 13.5 18.11 22.15-147
Multiple Goalkickers: Richmond - Stafford 4, N.G.Brown 2; St Kilda - Milne 5, Gehrig 4, Fiora 2, Hamill 2.
Attendance: 49,580.
KEY STATS AND MATCH-UPS:DEFENCE: The loss of Andrew Kellaway is a big blow to our backline in terms of structure. "Chubba" has had arguably his best season so far not only in terms of his usual second/third defender role but he's added a new dimension under Wallace with his rebounding efforts averaging between 15-16 possessions per game. Morrison has been brought in to replace him as he does a similar role at VFL level for Coburg. Whether he can do it in the faster pace of AFL footy is a worry. Graham and the impressive young Thursfield will also have to take on more responsibility in Kellaway's absence while Joel Bowden's excellent year (avg 22 possessions) rebounding off half-back will be even more vital to generate a running game that was absent last time we played St Kilda. Apart from absentees the match-ups won't change all that much from last time IMO. Gas will have Gehrig (4 goals in round 5 and 52 for the year),Razor gets Koschitzke (4 goals last week) and Morrison the resting ruckman in Ackland or Blake.
At ground level Milne (38 goals) poses the greatest threat based on past meetings between us and the Saints. Last time was no exception as he was too pacy for Chris Newman bagging a lazy five goals. So it'll be interesting whether Wallace makes a change this time or puts the challenge to Newman to make up for his poor effort. The way to take Milne out of the game is to force him wide so he is jammed in against the boundary line. It is when he is allowed space "front and square" that he becomes dangerous with his quick snaps at goal. As with any footy game these days pressure from the midfield denies easy ball for opposition forwards.
MIDFIELD: In round 5 we got totally smashed in the midfield particularly at the clearances. Apart from Cogs who was the only Tiger who had the better of his opponent Luke Ball and both Ball and Hayes having "quiet" games by their standards, the likes Dal Santo, Harvey (missing this time around) and Aussie Jones rebounding off half back tore us to ribbons with their pinpoint disposal. Even lesser likes such as the Clarke brothers, Goddard, Peckett and lo and behold ex-Tiger Aaron Fiora (out) joined in on the party. Once the play got out into open spaces we simply didn't get our hands on the footy. Half the side were kept to ten or less possessions compare to only three for the Saints. A simple case for the Tigers of too much being left to too few. When we did get the ball forward our disposal was so poor and predictable it played straight into the hands of Saint key defenders Maguire and Hudghton who kept both Richo and Simmonds goalless while Browny (out) was contained. Only Stafford (who is out) in the third quarter posed any scoreboard threat to the Saints but by then the game was gone.
Saturday's match will all be about playing the ball and getting in first and hard at the footy. Even moreso given it'll be wet, windy and a cold 12 degrees just as it was last week when we played good wet weather footy against the Bombers keeping things simply and direct most of the time. The Saints however won't be as stupid as a number of Essendon players were giving away free kicks to us. Although Johnson (avg 23 possies) will most likely miss again, since the midseason break Cambo (19) has stood up in his place along with Krakouer to take some of midfield workload off Cogs (22) and Tuck (22) while Hyde (15) looked a bit more like his old self from earlier in the year before ironically copping a fractured skull against the Saints.
St Kilda's up and down season has resulted from opposition sides spotting that while the Saints love an open free flowing game where they can run into open space especially in the protected environment of Telstra Dome, a number of their second and third tier players go missing and are "downhill skiers" when the game is turned into a scrap and the hard ball needs to be continually won in one-on-one contests. The return of Peckett and Guerra is a sign of Grant Thomas trying to add some hardness at ground level to his team for a wet day. Looking at their strengths the Saints clearly lead the rest of the competition in scoring from ball-up situations (the Tiges are next best) and are equal first in winning clearances (Tiges 4th best). Both stats showing the main threat to us comes from the trio Lenny Hayes (25) who has been in top form in recent weeks, Ball (21) and Dal Santo (22). In terms of match-ups Cogs will probably to take on Ball again, Tucky up against Hayes and Chaffey to get the job tagging Dal Santo.
FORWARDS: Richmond has restructured their forward line since the break with Richo spending a fair amount of time about 30 metres out from goal while the likes of Cambo, Hilton, Deledio and Tambling lead from the goalsquare. This has at least partly covered the loss of Nathan Brown while making us not so reliant on Richo kicking a bag for us to win. Last week we had a good spread of goalkickers as a result. The key to this week is our disposal and decision making going inside 50 which was deplorable last time around. Follow the K.I.S.S. philosophy in the wet and windy conditions and Richo won't be kept goalless this time around. Nor will Aussie Jones or Maguire pick off cheap footy and set up simple rebounding goals. Hyde has done run-with roles before and has pace so he may get the job on Aussie Jones. Mind you Jones has been off his best form since he blitzed against us in April.
When Knobel is in ruck Richo will have Hudghton at FF and Simmonds will have Maguire at CHF. When Simmonds takes over from Knobel we'll push Richo out to that 30 metre mark from goal again to drag Hudghton away from familiar territory. Hudghton by the way has been bragging all week he wants the job on Richo. Hopefully Richo will make him regret it
. Maguire may take over if Richo gets on top. Either way when we go small close to goal the Saints will have a tall having to pick up a swifter small whether that be Deledio, Pettifer or Hilton. On a wet day when the ball is more likely to be on the ground than in the air that will be a match-up in our favour.
OVERALL: St Kilda will go into this game rightly as favourites based on recent clashes but it's hard to judge their true form with wins against both the Dogs minus their best talls and the poor ol' bluebaggers and a loss to the struggling Bombers since the break. It's also difficult to determine how much influence playing the match at the 'G will have especially when it's going to be a wet day. The Saints have spanked us the last four meetings but those have all been at the Dome. At the M.C.G. prior to this year St Kilda has struggled but they have won all 3 games there in 2005 albeit against weak opposition (Pies, Hawks and Dogs). Interesting to note that the Saints have only recorded five victories against Richmond at the M.C.G. The last being 13 years ago. As each other's forward lines are probably superior than the opposing defenses IMO the side that will win will be the team who is willing to put their head over ball on a cold wet windy day and who wants the footy more than their opponent. Whichever side does that will win the midfield battle and the game.
THIS WEEK'S TEAMS:RICHMONDB: Newman, Gaspar, Bowden
HB: Thursfield, Hall, Chaffey
C: Tivendale, Coughlan, Deledio
HF: Pettifer, Simmonds, Tambling
F: Krakouer, Richardson, Hilton
R: Knobel, Tuck, Johnson
Int: Graham, Morrison, Hyde, Campbell
IN: Johnson, Morrison
OUT: Kellaway (broken jaw), Raines
ST KILDAB: Fisher, Hudghton, Voss
HB: Goddard, Maguire, Jones
C: Schwarze, Ball, X.Clarke
HF: Dal Santo, Ackland, Milne
F: Powell, Gehrig, Koschitzke
R: Blake, Hayes, Thompson
Int: Guerra, Baker, Peckett, R.Clarke
